2025 Cox Plate Day Tips & Preview

TONKIN (9) looks the one to beat to start the day.

This talented Blue Point mare has won four of the six races she’s contested so far, adding to her record stylishly at Sandown to kick off her prep in late August when she made every post a winner to go a length clear.

Team Freedman sent her to Flemington three weeks later where she was a good thing beaten, given a slightly quieter ride under Ben Melham where the pair were held up briefly searching for a run along the rail. They eventually ran on well for second with Persian Spirit just finishing one better.

She’s been given a jump out between runs and plummets in weight now back to 53kg. If she settles forward like we expect from a softer gate this time, she looks very hard to beat.

LIVE (9) is capable of getting into the money here under Ben Melham. 

The pair combined to win on debut at Geelong to start the month, driving hard down the outside over a touch shorter to hit the line hard in a head bob finish. 

The filly by Zoustar was taken off her stride a little when the horse to her inside was forced to shift out around the 200m mark, so it’s fair to say she could have won by more. 

It was a slowly run race and this is much tougher up to Group 3 level, but if she produces that same turn of foot again from the inside barrier this time, she’s capable of threatening.  

 TEINE AULELEI (7) could be the one over the odds in this race. 

The chestnut filly by Tagaloa is yet to run a poor race during her short career, winning on debut on a wet day at Bendigo back in June, before heading to Caulfield where she went within 1.5 lengths of Signature Scent, a filly who has been competitive in two recent runs at Group 3 and Stakes level.  

She resumed at Bendigo three weeks ago for third, quickening strongly along the rail where she rattled off the second-fastest final 200m sectional of the meeting. 

Likely to improve sharply off that first-up run over 1100m, I think she can surprise if she finds cover early and settles back off the speed.  

SALTY PEARL’S (1) recent form is very tough to knock heading into this year’s Group 2 Moonee Valley Fillies Classic. 

Ciaron Maher’s three-year-old was third here at The Valley fresh in the Atlantic Jewel to kick off her spring, then heading to the Thousand Guineas Prelude where she was a narrow third in behind Ole Dancer, the subsequent winner of last week’s Group 1. 

Last Saturday saw her settle midfield in her first look at the mile, and she certainly lost no admirers shifting to the centre of the track out of the turn to give good chase for fourth.  

Drawn another ideal gate with Ben Allen sticking, she’ll carry just 1kg extra for her troubles and take an absolute power of beating here in a much easier race with three runs under her belt.   

STAR OF INDIA (7) is one I’ve always had a bit of time for, even if he finds it tough to win. 

Chris Waller’s stayer has had his runs spaced over the last couple of months, resuming at Sandown late last month where he was seen running on strongly down the outside for sixth, beaten just over three lengths by Charterhouse. 

He gets into the 2025 JRA Cup field with a bit of relief at the weights and is much better suited out over 2000m having won twice previously. In a race that inspires little confidence, he’s a good each-way chance.   

SHE’S A HUSTLER (8) is potentially one of the better bets on the program. 

Graheme Begg’s mare was given a 10/10 steer by Jordy Childs on return at Flemington in a mares BM78 race last month, settling just off the speed before powering home to go a length clear with 60.5kg on her back. 

She gets big relief in the saddle here with Childs sticking and is likely to be up on the speed early if the pair can offset the wide gate. Proven second-up, she’s the one to beat with a trial win between starts to keep her sharp.  

DESERT LIGHTNING (6) appeals in a typically open edition of the Crystal Mile.  

This six-year-old by Pride Of Dubai has spent time competing against tougher company, highlighted by a midfield finish in the Underwood Stakes two back where he loomed large at the top of the straight to find the front, only weakening late once the class of the better horses (Sir Delius and Buckaroo) took over. 

Luck wasn’t on his side last start in the Toorak where he was three-wide the trip, making this a more suitable assignment back in class with some really good form to his name at The Valley.  

Down 1kg and rock-hard fit, he’s a better chance than the market suggests. 

TROPICUS (3) gets another chance having come off second-best to Giga Kick two weeks ago in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield. 

The Too Darn Hot entire hasn’t run a poor race during his 10-start career and is worth sticking with considering he was six weeks between runs last time out. 

We saw him come out and beat the likes of Arkansaw Kid the run prior in a G3 and from the wide gate, this sets up nicely for him to try his luck on the speed. Any extra chance of rain is also a bonus ahead of the McEwen Stakes. 

Hard to split a few of these but leaning the way of OPTIONS (3) in spite of the wide gate. 

The McEvoy-trained colt put the writing on the wall when he resumed at Bendigo in early September to remain unbeaten, finding the centre of the straight to punch over three lengths clear in an impressive display. 

By Impending, he had his chance at a hat-trick denied at Flemington where he ran into some traffic over 1800m but quickly bounced back in the Super Impose three weeks ago off a wide run to win by more than a length. 

We know he might have the Derby in his sights in a week’s time and coming in off two solidly run races over 1800m, the step up to 2000m looks perfect now if things go his way. 

VIA SISTINA (6) for me. 

The questions asked of her late have been warranted, but you can’t deny Chris Waller’s record in this race, or his ability to get his horses up and ready to run a huge race in their grand final. 

While a touch disappointing, the tempo was against her in both the Makybe Diva and Turnbull, but we know they’ll run much quicker on Saturday.  

It’s no shock to hear Waller say she’s going as well as she was this time last year but having watched J-Mac try and restrain her during Tuesday’s track work, she looks revved up and ready to defend her crown.