Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Both Easts and Newcastle have taken the long route to an unlikely 2026 NRL Grand Final matchup but there’s no denying either team, now they’re here.

Newcastle’s defence has been superb in the past month; twice overcoming sin-bins against top tier opposition best captures how hard this Knights squad is working for each other right now.

On the other hand, Easts power game through the middle and attacking flair on the edges has made them the most dangerous offensive team in the NRL this year and in the post-season.

By the Numbers 

With just 34 points conceded across their past three games, the Newcastle Knights are the personification of ‘defence wins premierships’ right now. Their ability to keep games tight has made every post-season game a battle of moments and the Knights are well equipped with moments players.  

Bradman Best has had two linebreaks for two clutch tries in the past fortnight. Sandon Smith is making a habit of putting Dane Gagai and Dom Young into scoring opportunities early or late in the count. Fletcher Sharpe consistently turns half chances into points and then of course there’s the main man at the back; Kalyn Ponga.  

Courtesy of their superstar No.1, we know Newcastle are lightyears ahead of the next best in terms of tries scored from the wrong side of halfway this year. Where on the field they score their points is far more balanced.  

Per StatsInsider, the Knights score 38% of tries down the left edge, 24% through the middle and 38% on the right. Whether it’s KP tipping Best into a linebreak down the left edge or Gagai tirelessly putting Young down the touchline on the right, Newcastle know how to get the most out of their best players this year.  

Similarly the Roosters share the love across the park this season; 38% of tries on the left, 20% through the middle and 42% down the right. Two elite kick targets on either wing has seen Easts execute in both corners all year while the triple threat of Reece Robson, Victor Radley and James Tedesco sees the Roosters ask constant questions around the ruck (more below).   

Deciding Factors 

We’ve been waiting for Newcastle’s middle to fall apart under the pressure and intensity of finals footy but the Knights continue to make a mockery of us.  

Tyson Frizell is as hard as ever at 34 years young while at the other end of the spectrum, a 20 year old Cody Hopwood is setting a very high bar for himself as an NRL front rower. With 88 tackles across three finals games for just three misses, Hopwood has owned the Knights middle while their backline carries the ball out of trouble. His try saving cover tackle on Brian To’o last week was a highlight reel moment that encapsulates everything good the Knights are doing right now.  

In attack, this Knights team is playing without fear and full of confidence. Sandon Smith’s try off the (not) quick tap last week is an exaggerated example of this; Justin Holbrook has coached his players to back themselves, take their looks in attack and defend any errors they make along the way. 

An extended period of defence on their own line against Penrith last week quickly turned into a counter attack as Newcastle shifted in yardage to put Best into the backfield. Trytime, Francis Manuleleua.  

And again to start the second half; down a man and with a 40-minute grind ahead of him, Smith rolls the dice on fifth tackle and Dom Young earns Newcastle a lead to defend through to fulltime. 

As brave as Newcastle’s defensive effort was on Sunday, the opportunities were there for Penrith around the ruck in the final quarter. Where Mitch Kenny and an injured Isaah Yeo & Dylan Edwards failed to capitalise on those looks though, Easts profile far better to take advantage of them.    

James Tedesco does his best work between the tram lines while Reece Robson, Victor Radley and Sam Walker showed as recently as last week that they are adept at attacking spaces around the ruck.  

If they have no joy through the middle third, the Roosters will know they take a huge advantage on fifth tackle into Sunday’s decider.  

Mark Nawaqanitawase and Daniel Tupou are two of the best kick targets in the NRL right now. 

Up against two rival wingers hardly known for their defensive prowess under the high ball, there’s a lot to like about what Easts might do on fifth tackle when they work into good-ball.  

The Verdict 

It’s difficult to deny the fairytale in Newcastle right now but I can’t tip against Easts experience in the big dance.  

The Knights struggled to match Penrith in yardage last week and they don’t profile any better against Easts here. Assuming the Roosters attack proves a little more potent inside-twenty than the Panthers did last Sunday, I think the Chooks will simply have too much possession and field position to play with.  

Tips: Sydney Roosters 13+ @ $2.65

Anytime Tryscorer: Mark Nawaqanitawase @ $1.83, Daniel Tupou @ 1.95, James Tedesco @ $2.65