Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions: Predictions, Odds & Betting Tips

Fremantle 

The Dockers return to the big stage for the first time since 2013 on the back of a remarkable 19 win, four loss season. 

Freo has been consistent all the way through, with the foundations of their game built around a suffocating defensive structure that has held opponents to the second-fewest goals in the competition. 

On attack, the Dockers are known for their methodical approach to moving the ball forward, setting up uncontested marking opportunities for a potent forward line featuring team-leading goal-kicker Jye Amiss and big man, Patrick Voss. 

The start to the finals got off to a rocky start for the minor premiers when they were smacked in the mouth by Hawthorn, while some similar concerns emerged in last week’s Prelim win over the Swans.  

To their credit, the Dockers staged a comeback for the ages when they erased a three-goal deficit after three-quarter time, but a similar slow start against the Lions could prove to be the downfall for a side not known for kicking high scores. 

Through the midfield, veterans Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong, as well as Hayden Young, will need to run hard and look to disrupt Brisbane’s ability to get back behind the ball and defend.  

Similar to the Hawks, a ground ball approach to forward half entries could also prove crucial with All-Australian Harris Andrews in sparkling form. 

A big afternoon from one of the game’s best ruck men, Luke Jackson, would also go a long way to thwarting a third flag for the Lions, and if everything comes together as Justin Longmuir has planned, the Dockers should be in this fight for the entirety.  

Brisbane Lions  

The path to a fourth consecutive Grand Final appearance has been anything but straightforward for Chris Fagan and the Lions.  

Whilst still finishing Top 4, the Lions had to book their spot the hard way after losing a Qualifying Final to the Swans in blowout fashion, adding to a year that has featured off-field storylines and some serious selection headaches. 

Fast forward three weeks though, and Brisbane looks as dangerous as ever. 

The Lions disposed of the Crows with ease in the Semi’s, before setting their sights on the plucky Hawks in what turned out to be (arguably) the best game of footy ever played. 

As we’ve seen throughout the last four years, the Lions proved that they only need one individual to step up in each game to be successful. The ever-reliable Logan Morris and Charlie Cameron may have been quite up forward, only for Kai Lohmann to chip in with five goals. 

Brisbane’s depth is the envy of just about every other club not named Geelong, and although it’s a good problem to have, Fagan will have another tough decision to make should Lachie Neale avoid a one-game suspension for his gut punch on Jack Ginnivan last week.  

While it’s fair to point out that we may be talking about the Lions differently if they did blow last week’s healthy three-quarter time lead against the Hawks, it’s also easy to look at Brisbane glass half full.  

Fagan’s men consistently find a way to win when they need it most, largely due to an uncanny blend of youth and experience. Hugh McCluggage was instrumental in the win over Hawthorn, while Will Ashcroft appears poised for an historic third consecutive Norm Smith Medal.  

Above all else, the Lions have been all class in front of the big sticks over the last two weeks, not to mention their ability to win the ball from the centre and pounce with quick goals in succession.  

A performance similar to the last two weeks would see the back to back premiers hard to beat.  

Best Bet  

A slow start would spell disaster for Fremantle. The Dockers have the pieces to challenge the Lions in every area of the ground for four quarters, but if this turns into anything like last week’s shootout, it’s advantage Brisbane.  

Oscar Allen and Ty Gallop are the favourites to be ommitted if Lachie Neale plays, but either way, the Lions have shown all year that they still possess the killer instinct to put their foot down when it matters most.  

Both sides have shown some chinks in their armour, but given Freo’s lack of experience on the big stage, plus the fact the Lions have enjoyed an extra week of adapting to playing at the MCG, it’s hard to back against the champs. 

• Prediction: Lions 1-39 @ $2.35 
• Player Picks: Hugh McCluggage 25+ Disposals @ $2.10, Eric Hipwood 2+ Goals @ $2.02 
• Same Game Multi: TAP FOR – AFL Grand Final TipsL

Total Points 

The last six Grand Finals have all gone Over the Total, but keep in mind the last four games between Freo and Brisbane have fallen Under.  

The weather in Melbourne calls for some showers on Friday and Saturday, but we should be playing on a dry deck with plenty of scoring opportunities.  

Both sides have a plethora of players big and small capable of kicking multiple goals, so this matchup really boils down to whether the Dockers choose to take the game on and play with plenty of run.  

It’s a tactic the Swans adopted to perfection a few weeks ago, so we’ll lean the Over.  

• Prediction: Over 190.5 Total Points @ $1.88 

Norm Smith Medal  

Will Ashcroft has been playing like a man possessed right through the finals.  

The dual Norm Smith Medalist has racked up 21, 30, and 28 touches over his last three games, delivering on the promise that he would play with a chip on his shoulder after being snubbed of an All-Australian blazer. 

All things considered, the $5 on offer for Ashcroft to join Dustin Martin as a three-time Norm Smith winner is generous, but there’s also an argument to be made for Lachie Neale given the narrative playing against his former club. 

For the Dockers, Caleb Serong has been a model of consistency right through his career, but a Fremantle upset likely starts and ends with Luke Jackson having a big game. 

He’s been a standout for Freo all season, and if there’s any chance of Wharfie Time at the ‘G, you could bet Jackson will be the catalyst and well on his way to joining Simon Madden as the only other ruckman to win a Norm Smith. 

• Prediction: Will Ashcroft @ $5