2026 Victoria Derby Day Tips & Preview

UNHINGED (2) arrives from Sydney in search of his hat-trick for Chris Waller.  

The three-year-old Snitzel colt shed the maiden tag from a wide barrier at Illawarra Grange two back, before stepping out over the 1400m trip at Rosehill where he let rip with a stunning turn of foot down the outside to romp nearly two lengths clear.  

A patient ride off the speed is key to his chances and he’s drawn to do just that from barrier 2. 

Proven on all going and racing on his home track for the first time, the rise back up to the mile looks ideal now with a handful of runs under his belt.  

AUTUMN LOVER (8) just needs a touch of early luck to go his way from an awkward gate in this year’s The Vanity.   

The Moody/Coleman filly was unlucky not to run a place here two back in the Listed Exford Plate over the same distance, shifting out to find the centre of the straight and running on well for fourth in a good go for the line.  

He was a tough watch last time out at Caulfield when held up badly for a run behind a wall of horses, really only finding his stride over the last 50m or so.  

Keep in mind he was five weeks between runs that day, so with Willy Pike piloting and natural improvement still to come, this looks like a nice race for him to go on with the job.  

DE ARMAS (3) is a good filly looking to finally make her presence felt down under.  

She’s had three goes on Australian soil so far this spring, running a huge race for second behind Global Goal in the Group 1 Flight Stakes at Randwick, form that has held up well given that same filly went on finish runner-up in the Spring Champion Stakes last Saturday.  

De Armas was a little flat rounding the bend third-up in the Thousand Guineas two weeks ago, but I think it was clear she overraced during the middle stages and was probably unsuited by the dry track. 

Back a level now, fitter and likely to get back and run on from the wide alley, she looks very hard to beat in the 2026 Wakeful Stakes.  

NAPOLEONIC (2) has been given a nice four-week break between runs coming off a start in the Manikato Stakes.  

The Wootton Bassett four-year-old was far from disgraced, landing up close to the speed and holding his spot well all the way to the line for sixth.  

He was a little one-paced when it mattered that day but comes back a level having finished just over a length off Ninja in the Group 2 Missile Stakes at Randwick to kickoff his prep.  

Drawn a soft gate with James McDonald offering a big upgrade in the saddle, he should take beating if he gets the right ride off the speed in this year’s Rising Fast Stakes.

HUGHES (10) has a tendency to blow the start, but his best is still good enough to threaten in The Damien Oliver.  

Gavin Bedggood’s gelding ran on extremely well first-up in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes, making up a stack of late ground from the tail to run third, beaten only a length by War Machine.  

A slow start cost him two back in the Golden Mile at Bendigo to wrap up his winter prep, but he did win two on the bounce prior, including the Echuca Cup and the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield. 

In carrying only 54.5kg to go with some decent second-up form, he looks a top contender with Jett Stanley sticking in the saddle.  

The Chris Waller factor gives ST GOTTHARD (5) an edge here in his likely grand final.  

He’s come off second-best twice in as many runs this time in to Warwoven, going down narrowly in the Run to the Rose, before finishing a distance second in the Golden Rose Stakes a few weeks ago where the wide gate was also in play.  

The Snitzel colt has drawn a much kinder alley for his Melbourne debut on Saturday and also gets the blinkers for the first time.  

With a trial and a jump out between runs, this race feels like much more than just an afterthought from the stable.  

TRUE REBEL (3) has drawn the carpark, but I still think he’ll see this trip out in his stride with four runs under his belt.  

Danny O’Brien’s gelding dug deep to get the job done by a half-length in the Moonee Valley Vase last week over shorter, timing his run to perfection under Blake Shinn on the outside to challenge the leader Skua and draw clear.  

No knock on Billy Egan stepping back into the saddle after the pair combined to win at Geelong three back. They just need cover early to be a serious factor.  

KING WINSTON (15) is worth a look each-way in the Derby. He comes out of that same maiden race at Bendigo in early September that saw True Rebel ran third. Love the way he ran in the Vase last week when shifting off the fence to grab fifth after being shown the whip at the top of the straight. Seemed to be warming to the task nicely over the final 50m, so this rise in trip looks a plus.  

Keen to be with CONCORD CONNIE (10) here third-up and out to the mile.  

I was off her after she failed to fire at Mornington fresh in a fillies and mares contest, but gee she was impressive letting rip with a big run down the outside from a long way back in the Tristarc Stakes to grab third. 

Keep in mind Shadhavar set a cracking tempo that day and led all the way, so you could argue that race was never run to suit. Two-from-two here at Flemington and although untried over the mile, she looks like she’ll see it out based on her latest effort.  

FLYING FOR FUN (4) has form around some good horses this time in work, which should count for a lot heading into this assignment third-up.  

She was only 1.5 lengths off Mazu fresh in The Shorts at Randwick to begin her prep, and we’ve seen that form hold up well with the runner-up Joliestar going on jag a place in The Everest. 

The mare to Spieth ran runner-up herself in the Schillaci Stakes two weeks ago over the same trip at Caulfield in behind Jigsaw, working her way home strongly down the outside to finish 1.25 lengths off. 

Fitter now and suited racing here at Headquarters, she’s the favourite for good reason.