Guy Ritchie has made three good movies and a lot of slop. That’s not dissimilar to this AFL season which, finally ,is back to a full slate of nine games a round.
To mark the end of the bye rounds, and now that everyone has finally played the same amount of games, let’s check in on Andrew Whelan’s premiership metrics. As a reminder, these metrics are a collection of numbers that premiers tend to be good at, and Andrew has split them by ranks with and without the footy.
“When the Lion is hungry, he eats”
Fremantle
Hawthorn
The metrics will tell you that these are not the two best teams, but I will look you in the Chevy Chase and tell you that the metrics are lying because they value excellence over consistency.
Both Freo and Hawthorn are in the top 11 for every single key metric, which can’t be said for any other team. Their lack of severe weakness makes them the only two teams in the premiership window.
In a week where three teams delivered real statements of intent, these two are the ones to truly fear. These are the lions in the jungle, and at this stage I’d pick them to eat all the way to a rematch of the 2013 Grand Final.
“What the fuck do I want a caravan for that hasn’t got any wheels”
Sydney
Geelong
Brisbane
But all three have at least one significant issue that they need to fix, or at least improve on, in order to get themselves into that top bracket. They’ve all got perfectly good caravans, but without a crucial ingredient like a wheel.
Sydney opponents get the ball inside 50 too often (15th), and the Swans are constantly beaten by what they know (17th at opponent expected chain scoring).
Geelong gives up far too many shots and also can’t stop the ball moving, not to mention that their key forward spends about half of every game with his forearm having little to do with his elbow.
Brisbane have been truly deplorable all season at stopping ball movement, sitting 17th in opponents going from defensive 50 to inside 50. On the whole, they’re sitting 12th in without the ball rankings.
The only reason they’re in this position is because they stopped the best ball movement team in footy from doing anything just last week through their patented combination of ball pressure and elite set up.
With Harris Andrews back to his best, Sydney had by far their worst transition game for the year. I’ve defied my own concept, but Brisbane is too good offensively, and showing too many signs of improvement, to be anywhere else.
However, if none of these teams can fix their big issues in major ways, they’ll be going as far as caravans without any wheels.
“What’s happening with them sausages Charlie?” “5 minutes Turkish” “It was 2 minutes, 5 minutes ago”
Gold Coast
Adelaide
St Kilda
GWS
Bulldogs
These teams, at various levels, were meant to make a run this season.
Gold Coast, Adelaide, GWS, and the Dogs were meant to be contenders, while the Saints spent like they were planning to be ready.
They’re all somewhere between 7th and 15th in the premiership metrics. They’re mediocre to bad. Like Charlie’s sausages, they should have been ready, but they aren’t.
Like Turkish, their fans have a right to be both confused and disappointed.
Port
Melbourne
Collingwood
I feel like these teams are lying to me, and I’ll stop at nothing to get the truth.
Port is sixth on the back of the second-best defence in the league while Melbourne is ninth. That doesn’t make any sense and they should be flipped.
Just a note on Port: this is a very strange year. They’ve only won five games for the year but have a percentage of 101. They’re the second-best defence in the league. This team is a breathing regression candidate, except they’re probably going to lose their best player who just inspired them to a Showdown win with 37 disposals and 13 clearances.
What do you do with that?
One thing I do know is that if Butters leaves, they’ll have Liberia’s deficit in their sky rocket. Josh Carr will be able to finance revolutions in his spare time with the war chest they’ll have. They won’t be able to find another Butters, though.
North
Carlton
Carlton has won six in a row. North has won three in a row.
Both of these sides are firmly in the wildcard mix on the back of changes to their style of play. North has become more aggressive from the back half this year compared to previous years, while Carlton under Fraser has learned that there’s more to footy than just contest.
On the back rosy win/loss records, why are the metrics so down on them? 11th and 14th? What is this?
Both of these teams’ results scream hard kings, but based on the numbers neither seem likely to stand up when the whips really start to crack as we get deeper into the season.
Carlton simply doesn’t score enough off turnover to be more than a good news story (16th), while the Roos defence is still abominable as they sit 18th in points allowed. Hopefully they send Brady Rawlings out again to tell us that Toby Pink can move when he has to.
These teams are still going to be pointing to someone else to go get the guns. Neither is ready yet to really threaten.
“Youse are embarrassing yourself here lads”
West Coast
Richmond
Essendon
These three again.
It’s getting pathetic.
Only West Coast has shown actual signs of growth this year, but they’re only not last in anything because Essendon and Richmond are.
At some point the fallow periods for these clubs will break, but it doesn’t feel like it’ll be soon. Especially if Dean Solomon gets the Essendon job.