We have Let’s Elope Stakes tips and predictions for the Group 2 1400m race at Flemington on Saturday.
Let’s Elope Stakes odds have Gold Coast Belle favoured to win, but we have found value outside of the favourite.
When the odds came out for the Let’s Elope Stakes, we expected Salty Pearl to be much shorter than $6, so he’s our best value bet.
The Ciaron Maher-trained 4YO had a busy and successful 3YO campaign, which included 14 starts for three wins and eight placings, so she’s a fit runner, and her third placing at Caulfield last start was a good hit-out.
All the hype is around Gold Coast Belle, which is fair as she beat Tennessee Bound last start, but Salty Pearl has experience racing in much bigger races, and that’s being overlooked for Saturday’s race.
Our Let’s Elope Stakes tips have Salty Pearl winning, and she’s an excellent each-way bet at the current odds. We priced her at around $4.40, so look for her to settle around midfield and produce her customary sustained finish down the Flemington straight.
| 1. Salty Pearl (9) J: Ben Allen 57.5kg 135×3T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Second-up. First-up after four months 3rd of 12 in the G3 Courtza (WW Cockram) Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 1200m, on a slow track; 2.75 len behind Custom with 59kg at $15. Previously second-up made ground from midfield; 2nd of 9 in the G2 Angus Armanasco Stakes at Caulfield on February 21 over 1400m, 2.25 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 58.5kg at $5. Lovely return and this trip suits, should be running on. | |||
It wouldn’t be smart to leave Gold Coast Belle out of our Let’s Elope Stakes predictions, and her win last start was a top effort.
She continues to impress with five wins and two placings from seven starts, and she has now put together a nice winning streak. That’s not easy to do, and our only worry is the rise in class.
She has been facing mostly midweek types before her win last start, so she will need to improve to beat this field, and barrier 11 will see her get back in the run and be forced to out-sprint Salty Pearl.
There are some risks in backing her to win, but she’s a clear winning chance, and a logical quinella hope with our top pick.
| 4. Gold Coast Belle (10) J: Jordan Childs 56kg 111×1T: Danny O’brien | |||
| Second run back. First-up after four months favourite; raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 2.25 len in a Bm88 at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 1300m in heavy going defeating Tennessee Bound with 52.5kg at $2.30. Previously second-up 2nd of 7 in a 3yo F Bm64 at Sandown-Hillside on March 11 over 1400m, 0.5 len behind Paltrow Miss carrying 59kg at $2.45. Looks a huge chance to add to the winning sequence. Very promising mare who will take catching again. | |||
A horse going under the radar is Merrigold, who has yet to win from five fresh attempts, but she is never too far away from the action.
She is a nine-race winner, which can’t be overlooked against a field like this, and her experience could be enough to get the better of the two favourites, so the $17 odds are worth entertaining.
She is drawn to get all favours in the run off the inside draw. She also gets 55kg, and apart from race fitness, there aren’t too many negatives about her chances. Therefore, include the mare in Let’s Elope Stakes predictions for a big of value.
| 7. Merrigold (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse 55kg 2147xT: John Sadler | |||
| First-up. Finished off last preparation seventh of 9 at Bendigo Gold Bracelet May 2 over 1400m, 1.5 len behind Miss Playlounge carrying 58kg at $3.40. When resuming last campaign third of 11 at Caulfield Bm78 October 15 over 1100m, 1.5 len behind Don’t Hope Do with 56kg at $26. Prefer to see. | |||
Punters get value odds with our Let’s Elope Stakes SRM, which includes our three selected runners.
We have Salty Pearl Top 2, Gold Coast Belle Top 2, and Merrigold Top 5, and punters get $15.00 for our three-runner SRM.
Our same-race multi hinges on Salty Pearl and Gold Coast Belle running the quinella, but we rate them as the best horses in the race. Merrigold pays $2.25 to finish in the Top 5, which is an excellent value bet.
| 1. Salty Pearl (9) J: Ben Allen 57.5kg 135×3T: Ciaron Maher | |||
| Second-up. First-up after four months 3rd of 12 in the G3 Courtza (WW Cockram) Stakes at Caulfield on August 29 over 1200m, on a slow track; 2.75 len behind Custom with 59kg at $15. Previously second-up made ground from midfield; 2nd of 9 in the G2 Angus Armanasco Stakes at Caulfield on February 21 over 1400m, 2.25 len behind Sheza Alibi carrying 58.5kg at $5. Lovely return and this trip suits, should be running on. | |||
| 4. Gold Coast Belle (10) J: Jordan Childs 56kg 111×1T: Danny O’brien | |||
| Second run back. First-up after four months favourite; raced right near the speed and boxed on; won by 2.25 len in a Bm88 at Sandown-Hillside on August 22 over 1300m in heavy going defeating Tennessee Bound with 52.5kg at $2.30. Previously second-up 2nd of 7 in a 3yo F Bm64 at Sandown-Hillside on March 11 over 1400m, 0.5 len behind Paltrow Miss carrying 59kg at $2.45. Looks a huge chance to add to the winning sequence. Very promising mare who will take catching again. | |||
| 7. Merrigold (1) J: Daniel Stackhouse 55kg 2147xT: John Sadler | |||
| First-up. Finished off last preparation seventh of 9 at Bendigo Gold Bracelet May 2 over 1400m, 1.5 len behind Miss Playlounge carrying 58kg at $3.40. When resuming last campaign third of 11 at Caulfield Bm78 October 15 over 1100m, 1.5 len behind Don’t Hope Do with 56kg at $26. Prefer to see. | |||