The Top 3 of the Top 10 of the AFL Draft

The Top 3 of the Top 10 of the AFL Draft

GuyWhoLikesSport

I am not a scout.

Outside of the clips that Jasper Chellappah’s has posted on Twitter, and I have not watched a single second of a single player that was drafted last night.

 

I have read a lot about the draft, but only because I barrack for Richmond and want to insert some hope into my cold heart.

Outside of my reading of other people’s scouting reports, I have no real thoughts on who is going to be good and who isn’t.

What I believe in, though, is archetypes.

There are certain kinds of players that are built to succeed in the modern game and certain kinds of players that aren’t.

Pure accumulators who do very little damage with ball in hand, either by running and breaking lines or with particularly impressive disposal like Sam Walsh or Tom Mitchell for instance, are less useful in today’s game than I can ever remember.

Footy now is about incisive, fast ball movement and a generally aggressive posture with ball in hand.

You just need to look at the little tweaks Brisbane made in the finals last season, their increased risk appetite moving the ball out of the back half particularly,

to see how important that kind of skillset and aggressive mindset has become.

I say all of that to say that I think a lot can be gleaned from the player comparisons at the bottom of the write-ups that the draftniks do. If a player is compared to Dustin Martin, I don’t expect to get three Norm Smiths out of the guy.

I do expect a player with an explosive element to his game, genuine size and strength, and a nose for the goal both from midfield and as an actual forward.

That’s a good player in today’s game.

If I see a comparison to Nick Watson, on the other hand, that probably just means very skilled little guy. It feels to me that there’s a narrower pathway to success for him than for other, bigger players.

When in doubt, bet on the bigger, faster, stronger guy.

With that in mind, these are my three favourite player comparisons from the first round of the 2024 AFL draft.

I’m using Jasper Chellapah’s ESPN draft guide for the comparisons. His stuff was my favourite of this draft season.

1. Sam Lalor (Pick 1: Richmond) Player Comp: Christian Petracca

I don’t know if I’m talking myself into some nonsense here because I’m a Richmond supporter, but I love this pick.

Need a big, fast, strong, mean guy who can play forward of the ball and win one on one like…Christian Petracca?

Sounds like someone else I know. And it sounds bloody perfect to me.

This is the kind of archetype that works.

The creature of the forward half midfielder who can provide a chop out as a genuine forward option rather than just throwing Patty Cripps down there for a laugh once a game.

Going from Dusty to Lalor feels like The Sopranos moving from Richie Aprile as Tony’s antagonist to Ralphie Cifaretto.

You always need one.

2. Alix Tauru (Pick 10: St. Kilda) Player Comp: Tom Stewart

Okay I’ve taken off my Tiger supporter hat.

If you look at the eight teams that made the finals in 2024 and look for common threads, one thing really stands out: six had elite intercept players.

Sydney and the Bulldogs are the exceptions, and look how a lack of defensive centrepiece worked out for Sydney.

I have always viewed defending as a whole of ground effort, but it’s becoming clear that you need a sun to build the solar system around.

A comparison to Tom Stewart is an attempt to acquire the sun.

While the Stewart comparison might indicate a bit of a lack of size, and it’s a hard needle to thread given how cerebral Stewart is, there are a lack of players with what I am calling “sun-potential” in that first round.

For that reason, I think the days of getting guys like this for cheap like Brisbane did with Harris Andrews (61st) or Geelong did with Tom Stewart (40th) are over.

Mac Andrew, whom they might ruin as a forward, was pick 5.

Anyway, I love this comp, and I love it for the Saints who were dour but not dynamic out of the back half.

They were a straight man without a funny man to the side to make it interesting last year in defence.

Dropping Tauru in feels like Gob coming into Michael scenes on his moped in Arrested Development, adding some carnage.

On a footy level, Tauru’s comp indicates to me a player that’s willing to defend and attack all at once, providing a bit of bounce and aggression off half back. He might be the antidote to the Ross Lyon’s boundary line ball movement fetish.

3. Josh Smillie (Pick 7: Josh Smilie) Player Comp: Tom Green

Tiger hat back on.

I’m in on both these blokes, Tom Green is 191cm and is strong as a bull.

If you compare a guy to Tom Green, all I’m hearing is big guy who wants to crash and bash.

If they’re the traits you’re offering me in Josh Smilie, and at 195cm they appear to be, then sign me up.

Even though he seems to be a pure midfielder based on the comparison, the ability to define a game physically still matters as much as anything.

The AFL average for contested possessions per game, per team has fallen every year for the last three years as footy has opened up.

However, in each of those years at least the three best contested ball differential teams have all made the finals (in 2022 and 2023, the four best contested ball differential teams all made the finals.

In 2024, Fremantle were the fourth best contested ball differential team but missed the finals by 2 points)

What does all of that mean?

There are less contested balls available, but it bloody helps to win them.

It’s like having a great movie star to open your movie.

There just aren’t many of them around, you no longer need one to have a big hit.

But it helps to have Tom Cruise on the poster.

 

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