The new Melbourne racing season fires up in style this Saturday with the Aurie’s Star Handicap down the famous Flemington straight, and punters are in for a beauty. It’s a compact line‑up but stacked with genuine talent, and the first Group race of the season always gives us an early read on who’s ready to make a splash heading into spring. We’ve broken down the key chances, the form that matters, and the runners you want in your multis — here are our Aurie’s Star Handicap tips, predictions and favourites for 2026.
We wrapped up the winter racing action in style last weekend, landing a tidy Same Race Multi in the Bletchingly Stakes at Caulfield that returned close to ten bucks. Not a bad way to sign off the colder months — and now we roll straight into Flemington for the first Group race of the new season.
The big question is whether we can keep the momentum going at HQ this Saturday.
History says the Aurie’s Star Handicap is usually a race where the well‑supported runners stand up, with favourites boasting a strong recent strike‑rate. Early‑spring sprinters with proven Group 1 form or sharp first‑up profiles have traditionally been the safest plays.
So, does that trend continue with War Machine resuming as the clear top seed? Or is this the year a value runner steps up and joins past winners like Temple Of Boom, Tiger Tees, Hey Doc, So Si Bon and last year’s champ King Of Roseau?
Dive in for our full 2026 Aurie’s Star Handicap tips, predictions and Same Race Multi selections below.
2026 Aurie’s Star Handicap Favourites & Best Bets
WAR MACHINE (1) rolls into the Aurie’s Star Handicap as the clear top pick, and it’s not hard to see why.
The Lindsay Park star is back from a break and brings genuine Group 1 polish to a race that doesn’t look anywhere near as deep as what he’s been tackling.
His last win came here down the straight when he monstered the Gilgai Stakes under a big weight, and nothing he’s faced since has been anywhere near this level.
He was thrown into the deep end in The Everest and again in the autumn, so you can put a line through those runs.
What matters is his latest Flemington trial on July 24, where he cruised past Ndola and looked exactly like a horse ready to fire fresh — which he usually does.
The 60.5kg won’t worry him, Blake Shinn jumps back aboard, and the inside draw gives them options to control their race.
If he turns up anywhere near his best, he’s right in the finish.
Neds Verdict: Group 1 class in a softer race. Top 2.
| 1. War Machine (1) Scratched: | |||
NDOLA (4) is the stablemate who could make things interesting on Saturday, and he’s the one punters shouldn’t be sleeping on.
He chased War Machine home in a recent Flemington jump‑out, but there was plenty to like about the way he moved, and he brings the clear fitness edge into the Aurie’s Star.
The Hayes team have him humming, and his straight‑track record speaks for itself — unbeaten over the 1200m here and boasting a seriously sharp strike‑rate at the trip.
He was brave winning the Santa Ana Lane Final earlier in July under 58kg, and he’s only going to be better suited dropping right back to 54.5kg with Jye McNeil sticking.
The rise in grade won’t worry him; he’s earned his shot, and he won’t be stretched at the distance like he was in last year’s Australian Guineas.
Second‑up is his sweet spot, he gets weight relief, and the market has already started to warm to him.
He’s the danger, he’s in form, and he maps for a perfect run.
Neds Verdict: Straight‑track specialist ready to give this a shake. Each Way.
| 5. Ndola (3) J: Jye Mcneil 54.5kg 213×1 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
ROYAL INSIGNIA (5) is the best roughie in the Aurie’s Star Handicap for mine, and he’s the one at double‑figure odds who can spice up your exotics.
He’s had a love–hate relationship with Flemington over the journey, but his latest run — a narrow second behind Piastri in a BM88 — finally hinted that he’s starting to work the straight out.
That effort was strong, and the run before behind Ndola was better than the form guide suggests, beaten only 1.6 lengths after sticking on from a handy spot.
It’s been a while between wins, but his last victory came at Group 3 level in the Manfred Stakes, so he’s certainly capable when things fall his way.
He’s trending the right direction now, drops from 57.5kg to 54kg, and his last‑start closing work was exactly what you want to see from a horse trying to break a Flemington hoodoo.
He won’t be knocking off the big guns, but he’s absolutely the type who can slide into the finish late and add value to trifectas and first fours.
Verdict: Improving roughie who can run on and fill a hole. Top 4.
| 8. Royal Insignia (4) J: Luke Cartwright 54kg x7562 T: Grahame Begg |
2026 Aurie’s Star Handicap Same Race Multi Selections
- Top 2: No. 1 War Machine
- Top 3: No. 5 Ndola
- Top 4: No. 8 Royal Insignia
WAR MACHINE (1) is the clear top seed in the Aurie’s Star Handicap, and the runner punters will naturally gravitate to. He’s the proven Group 1 horse in the field and brings serious straight‑track credentials, having put the Gilgai Stakes to bed last spring with a dominant win under a big weight. His recent jump‑out over Ndola showed he’s come back in great order, and his first‑up record is rock solid. The 60.5kg won’t bother him — he’s earned every bit of it — and Blake Shinn jumping back aboard from a soft draw only strengthens the case. He’s been racing in far deeper company than this, and if he turns up anywhere near his best, he’s right in the finish.
NDOLA (4) is the danger and the one most likely to make War Machine work for it. He chased the favourite home in a recent Flemington hit‑out but brings the fitness edge and a faultless straight‑track record into Saturday. Two‑from‑two over the 1200m here and boasting an elite strike‑rate at the trip, he’s exactly the type of horse who thrives down the straight. His Santa Ana Lane win was tough, he improves second‑up, and the drop to 54.5kg with Jye McNeil sticking is a huge tick. The market has already started to warm to him, and he profiles perfectly as the Top 3 play of the field.
ROYAL INSIGNIA (5) is the best value runner in the Aurie’s Star and the one at double‑figure odds who can add real spice to exotics. He’s had his battles with Flemington, but his last‑start second behind Piastri suggested he’s finally getting the hang of the straight. The run before behind Ndola was stronger than it reads — beaten only 1.6 lengths after sticking on from a handy spot — and he now drops sharply to 54kg, which puts him right in the mix. It’s been a while since his last win, but that came at Group 3 level, so he’s certainly capable when conditions suit. He won’t be knocking off the big guns, but he’s exactly the type who can slide into the finish late and boost trifectas and first fours.
| 8. Royal Insignia (4) J: Luke Cartwright 54kg x7562 T: Grahame Begg | ||
| 5. Ndola (3) J: Jye Mcneil 54.5kg 213×1 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
Favourites in 2026 Aurie’s Star Handicap Betting
The 2026 Aurie’s Star Handicap betting market has settled into a clear shape ahead of Saturday’s straight‑track showdown, with a handful of key runners dominating the early betting. Here’s how the top of the market stacks up — and why punters are gravitating toward these major players.
No. 1 War Machine – Favourite
War Machine heads the Aurie’s Star market at $3.40 at time of publish, and the profile is exactly what punters expect from a resuming Group 1 gelding. He’s proven first‑up, having won fresh previously, and while his last run of the autumn saw him finish 11th in the G1 Newmarket (4 lengths off Caballus), that was against elite opposition under 57kg. When he resumed last campaign, he ran third in the G2 Australia Stakes at Pakenham, beaten 3.5 lengths by Hedged after jumping odds‑on at $1.30 — a run that still reads well given the small field and tempo. Back to a Group 3, back down the straight, and back with a strong fresh record, he’s the class runner in the race and the market reflects it.
| 1. War Machine (1) Scratched: | |||
No. 5 Ndola – Market Mover
Ndola sits right behind the favourite at $4.50 (at time of publish), and he brings the fitness edge into Saturday’s feature. First‑up, he was terrific winning the Listed Santa Ana Lane Series Final by a head over 1200m at Flemington, carrying 58kg on a soft track and holding off Lingani late. His second‑up record is even better: last prep he came from midfield and won at Caulfield over 1440m in BM84 grade, carrying a hefty 60kg. He’s a straight‑track specialist, he’s airborne early in his campaigns, and he gets in beautifully at the weights this weekend. No surprise he’s firming.
| 5. Ndola (3) J: Jye Mcneil 54.5kg 213×1 T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
No. 2 Arkansaw Kid – Third Pick
Currently at around $6 in the Aurie’s Star odds, Arkansaw Kid is the third pick and another runner who traditionally fires fresh. He resumes after a four‑and‑a‑half‑month break, and his last run of the campaign saw him finish third in the LR Matrice Stakes at Morphettville, beaten 2.5 lengths under a big 62kg. First‑up last prep he ran a bold second in the Meteorite at Cranbourne, finishing just 0.8 lengths behind Jigsaw while carrying 59kg. He’s a reliable fresh performer, handles the 1200m, and maps to be right on speed — a big tick down the straight.
| 2. Arkansaw Kid (2) J: Mark Zahra 59kg 3273x T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes |
No. 4 Cote Atlantique – Next Best
Cote Atlantique sits on the next line of betting after a solid Sunshine Coast run where he sat on speed and boxed on for sixth in the Listed Glasshouse Handicap over 1400m. He was only 1.75 lengths off Arabian Rose on a slow track carrying 57kg. The start prior he wasn’t suited at Doomben in the Listed Bernborough, finishing 11th over 1600m on another slow surface. Back to 1200m, back to a fairer straight‑track set‑up, and back to a race with less pressure early — he’s a genuine wildcard in the market.
| 4. Cote Atlantique (6) J: Declan Bates 55kg 22206 T: Henry Dwyer |
Star Patrol – Being Kept Safe
Star Patrol is another proven fresh performer and sits around the $7 mark. He resumes after finishing 11th in the G3 Rising Fast Stakes last spring, beaten 4.5 lengths by Caballus under 58kg. But first‑up last campaign he was outstanding, finishing second in the G2 Bobbie Lewis down the Flemington straight, beaten only half a length by Arkansaw Kid with 55kg. He’s a straight‑track horse, he’s sharp fresh, and he’ll be right up on speed — which is exactly where you want to be in this race.
| 3. Star Patrol (7) J: Craig Newitt 55.5kg x230x T: Clinton McDonald |
The 2026 Aurie’s Star Handicap shapes as a beauty down the Flemington straight, and whatever unfolds on Saturday will set the tone for the early spring. War Machine brings the proven Group 1 class, Ndola arrives rock‑hard fit and ready to make him earn it, and Royal Insignia is the late‑charging value runner who can spice up the exotics. The map suggests an honest tempo, perfect for those stalking the speed and launching when the race hits top gear. Whether you’re building Same Race Multis, chasing a cheeky exotic, or playing it straight with a win bet, this year’s Aurie’s Star has all the ingredients — confidence in the best backed runners, value further down the markets, and a proper spring warm‑up. Let’s get stuck in!
Aurie’s Star Handicap FAQs
The Aurie’s Star Handicap is a Group 3 sprint run down the famous Flemington straight over 1200m. It’s traditionally the first Group race of the new Melbourne season and often acts as an early spring launching pad for top‑class sprinters.
The 2026 edition takes place Saturday, August 1, kicking off the straight‑track action at Flemington. It is set to jump as Flemington Race 7 at 3:50pm (AEST).
The race is held over 1200 metres, making it one of the key early‑season straight‑track sprints in Victoria.
War Machine heads the market as the $3.40 favourite, returning from a spell and bringing proven Group 1 class back to a Group 3 field.
Ndola ($4.50) is the clear second pick thanks to his straight‑track record and strong second‑up profile, while Arkansaw Kid ($6) is another reliable fresh performer who maps well.
The race typically suits proven straight‑track sprinters, Group‑class runners resuming, and horses with strong first‑up or second‑up records heading into early spring.
Yes — the Aurie’s Star often highlights early movers for the Bobbie Lewis Quality Handicap, Gilgai Stakes, and even Group 1 sprints later in the carnival. Many winners progress to bigger targets.