New South Wales head to the MCG this week with the 2026 State of Origin Series up for grabs. Standing in their way on Wednesday night though is a desperate QLD Maroons squad led by Billy Slater who knows a thing or two about winning Origins.
Queensland Maroons
From what we saw in Game I, QLD’s running spine of Kalyn Ponga, Cameron Munster and Harry Grant is the perfect look for the Origin arena.
Their surplus of on-the-ball, run-first playmakers allows the Maroons to play a flat, fast and ‘eyes up’ style that suits the high-speed, high-fatigue conditions of Origin footy.
The lead up to Tom Flegler’s try is a nice example; a halfbreak on the kick chase through Ponga led to a quick play-the-ball which allowed Munster, Ponga (again) and Grant to all get over the advantage line and stress the defence on consecutive tackles until the hole appeared and Sam Walker was in position to ice it.
QLD profile well to rinse and repeat these positives on Wednesday night.
If it’s not triggered by Ponga tipping Selwyn Cobbo through on a kick return, it can be Munster taking a short side or Ponga making a half break on the tramline in a yardage shift. Wherever the opportunities appear, the Maroons are well equipped to identify and capitlise on those looks and turn them into points.
If QLD are searching for an attacking cue, I’m tipping them to look at the spaces around Mitchell Moses and Tolu Koula.
If there’s one knock on Koula defensively, it’s that he can be prone to sinking in on the lead runner when shape is coming his way. With an unfamiliar defender on his inside shoulder and the threat of Ponga (or Walsh – see below) sweeping to his outside, Koula can expect some traffic on Wednesday night.
Defensively, we all thought Walker would be a spot for NSW to target in the Series Opener but in hindsight, we should’ve known what Reuben Cotter could provide as his bodyguard.
There’s big expectations on Briton Nikora (and or likefu Finefuiaki) – two attacking backrowers who profile very differently to Cotter – to do the same here and protect their little halfback.
Tips: Jojo Fifita try, Kalyn Ponga try
New South Wales Blues
The Blues will know they got away with one in Sydney and the changes Laurie Daley has made speaks to this truth.
Put simply, NSW could not work out of their own end in Game I but profile better in that regard, this time around.
Mitchell Moses’ kicking game is a big reason for his inclusion this week. The Maroons repeatedly found the grass and kicked themselves out of trouble whenever NSW attempted to lock in defensively thanks to the multitude of genuine kicking options they had in yardage.
Moses’ inclusion alongside Mark Nawaqanitawase and Payne Haas this week should see the Blues do the same and work more cleanly out of the backfield in Game II.
Dylan Lucas in for Haumole Olakau’atu complements this approach; the Blues have dropped one big body out of yardage for a tireless backrower that will lead the kick chase and line speed for 80 minutes.
If it works out the way NSW hope, we should see more opportunities for Tolu Koula running in spaces rather than at kick chase lines. He’s a likely grubber kick target if NSW can force Kalyn Ponga to fill up in the line again as they did in Game I, while his support play & speed could be a nice foil for Hudson Young’s offloading ability through the line.
Having Nawaqanitawase on the right wing is a fail safe for the Blues if they can’t execute on attacking shapes in good ball.
Tips: Tolu Koula try, Mark Nawaqanitawase try
Point of Difference
As mentioned above, the inclusion of Mark Nawaqanitawase gives the Blues an aerial kick target on the sting that they haven’t had since Zac Lomax or Daniel Tupou. While Selwyn Cobbo did a great job under the high ball in Game I, he wasn’t tested by Brian To’o the same way Nawaqanitawase can.
The Maroons goal-line defence was nothing short of extraordinary in Sydney to repeatedly shut down whatever the Blues tried to execute on with the ball. If the same thing happens on Wednesday night, a good fifth tackle kick to Nawaqanitawase could break the deadlock.
On the left edge, Koula’s speed makes him an appealing grubber kick target or dropping back in against the grain at tiring middles. Without the defensive workrate and positioning of Reuben Cotter on that right tramline for QLD this week, I’m expecting the Blues to get at Sam Walker a little more often and make some inroads from there.
For QLD, the threat of Reece Walsh coming on fresh and running riot against fatiguing defenders is very real.
Tired middles means no inside pressure and tired edges means no communication and poor decisions. If the Maroons are chasing points late in either half and introduce Walsh’s ballplaying on the edges, it’ll cause nightmares for the Blues defence and could end up being the difference.
Who wins State of Origin Game II and why? Let us know in the comments.
