The Premier League season has reached its final act, and while Arsenal have already lifted the trophy, there’s still plenty left to play for on the final day.
European qualification is wide open, with multiple clubs still jostling for Champions League, Europa League and Conference League spots, while at the other end, it’s a straight shootout between Tottenham and West Ham to avoid the drop.
I’ve previewed all 10 Game Week 38 fixtures and picked out my best betting plays below.
Not much on the line here, but Newcastle look the side more likely to finish the season strong.
Fulham have fallen away badly, just one win in six, and their home games have turned into low-scoring slogs, losing three of their last five at Craven Cottage, all by a 1-0 scoreline.
The Magpies have a bit more life about them, unbeaten in three and still chasing a top-half finish, and they’ve quietly had Fulham’s number, winning six of the last eight H2Hs.
Both of Newcastle’s away wins this calendar year have come in London too.
Happy to side with the visitors here.
This has all the makings of a City send-off job.
Pep’s (potentially) waving goodbye, they’ve gone 15 straight without losing, and they’ve absolutely owned Villa at the Etihad, 15 straight wins, 19 of the last 20… it’s ugly.
Villa will still be on the beers after lifting the Europa League midweek, and with nothing really to play for here, this screams rotation + flat spot.
They’ve also gone six straight away games without a win… not ideal heading into this.
City love a final day win under Pep, and you’d expect them to put on a bit of a show here.
City to win, and win well.
This one actually means something.
Brighton need a win to lock in European football, and potentially even sneak into the Champions League depending on how results fall… so expect them to come out swinging.
They’ve been strong at home too, winning three straight, and they’ve quietly owned United in recent years, taking six of the last eight H2Hs.
United come in with solid form, but their away record is still shaky, just three wins from their last ten on the road, and they’ve been leaking goals for fun all season.
Feels like a spot where motivation + matchup edge leans Brighton’s way.
Seagulls to get it done.
Someone has to win… right?
This is about as ugly as it gets, but Burnley at least have the slight edge here.
Wolves have been a disaster all season, still without an away win, and now need to win just to avoid finishing dead last… not exactly inspiring given they’ve lost nine of their last 11 final day games.
Burnley haven’t been much better, but Wolves have struggled badly in this matchup, winless in their last five trips to Turf Moor, and losing the reverse fixture earlier this season.
It won’t be pretty, but happy to side with the home team in a battle for who’s the least bad.
Burnley to edge it.
Plenty of narrative in this one.
Liverpool are limping to the finish line, but this will be an emotional send-off with Salah and Robertson potentially playing their final game at Anfield… so you’d expect goals.
The Reds have been involved in some chaos lately too, with both teams scoring in each of their last five, and their defence has been anything but reliable.
Brentford still have something to play for in the European race, but their form has fallen off a cliff, just one win in nine, and they’ve struggled badly on the road.
That said, they can score, and with nothing to lose here, this has all the makings of an open one.
Let’s back the goals.
What a season this has been from the Cherries.
Unbeaten in 17 straight league games and already guaranteed European football, with an outside shot at the Champions League… they’re not done yet.
Forest have been solid enough in patches, but with nothing to play for here and just four home wins all season, it’s hard to trust them, especially against a side they’ve never beaten in the Premier League.
Bournemouth have been consistent, they score goals, and they just keep finding a way to get results.
Feels like they finish the job here.
Cherries to win.
This is one of the games of the round.
Both sides need it, Sunderland chasing a miracle European finish, Chelsea knowing a win locks it in, so expect this to be played at a serious tempo.
The Black Cats have found some late-season life, and they’ve been strong at home, especially after the break, while Chelsea haven’t kept a clean sheet in 15 straight league games… yeah.
The Blues have also seen early goals in recent matches, so don’t be surprised if this opens up quickly.
Feels like chances at both ends all game.
BTTS looks the play.
It’s do or die for the Hammers.
They have to win, simple as that, and hope results fall their way… but first things first, they need to take care of business here.
Form isn’t great, three straight losses, but they’ve been solid enough at home, losing just one of their last seven at the London Stadium, and this is exactly the type of fixture they’ve handled well this season.
Leeds come in flying, unbeaten in eight, but they’ve struggled away all year, just two wins on the road, and don’t have anywhere near the same pressure on them here.
Back the desperation angle.
West Ham to win.
This could get very, very messy.
Spurs are playing for their Premier League lives, and while a draw likely keeps them up, this side doesn’t exactly scream “control” right now.
They’ve been leaking goals, games have been open, and 12 of their last 17 have gone over the total.
Everton aren’t exactly flying either, but they’ve been involved in some chaotic away fixtures, conceding exactly two in each of their last five on the road, with BTTS landing in six of their last seven away games.
With everything on the line for Spurs, this feels like one that opens right up.
Let’s back the goals.
Champions, no pressure… but don’t expect Arsenal to take the foot off.
They’ve won four straight without conceding, are building nicely ahead of the Champions League Final, and have completely dominated this matchup, winning eight of the last nine H2Hs.
Palace have one eye firmly on their European final next week, and Glasner has already flagged rotation… not ideal against the best team in the league.
The Gunners don’t tend to play in chaos either, they control games, limit chances, and get the job done.
Feels like a professional, low-drama win.
Arsenal to win in a controlled one.