A compelling Round 10 is highlighted by a truly super Saturday clash when Top 4 teams Canberra and Canterbury square off in the capital while the week finishes off with one of the great rivalry clashes when Manly host Cronulla.
The loss of Jeremy Marshall-King hurts the Dolphins significantly but it is astonishing that they are not favoured against the Eels, even with the game being played at CommBank. No matter what way you chop it, the Phins are a better team and this game should be pick ‘em at best. The Dolphins won the last meeting between the two teams in a 44-16 rout. The Dolphins tend to perform against teams they should perform going 9-6 against the spead against bottom five teams and covering three of their last four against teams outside the Top 8. The Dolphins tend to bounceback well too with a 10-7 cover record off a double digit loss. The Eels cover at just 41% when favoured and have covered just five of 15 against bottom five teams. There is great value with the Dolphins. Herbie Farnworth has scored in his last three and matches up with defensive turnstyle Will Penisini. Connelly Lemuelu has three tries in six matches this year.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Dolphins +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Dolphins 13+ ($4.60)
- Tryscorer: Herbie Farnworth ($13 First. $2.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Herbie Farnworth Try/Connelly Lemuelu Try ($9.10)
Newcastle are not a good team but for the second straight week find themselves in a great situation against a team in dire straits that they should win comfortably. The Titans are in all sorts. Des Hasler is on the verge of being fired. He dropped their highest paid player David Fifita to reserve grade. The team continues to leak points all over the field. Even with Jayden Campbell back, the injury toll is high. The Knights have won six straight against the Titans in Newcastle with the last four by 20-plus. They are 14-7 against the spread at home and they have covered 14 of 19 against bottom five teams. The Titans are in all sorts and this is a bad situation. They have covered just three of 10 on the road and just three of 12 off conceding 36-plus. This has all the hallmarks of a Knights rout. Fletcher Sharpe is flying with five tries in his last four games. Bradman Best has four tries in his seven matches against the Titans.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Newcastle -6.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Newcastle -17.5 ($3.40)
- Tryscorer: Fletcher Sharpe ($11.50 First, $2.50 Anytime)
- SGM: Fletcher Sharpe Try/Bradman Best Try ($4.88)
The Brisbane Broncos are the most overrated team in the premiership and it comes through in their cover record with the Broncos making the nut in just three of their last 12 games. There is just no way that Brisbane should be interstate double digit favourites, even against a South Sydney side that has been battered with injury. Brisbane have covered just four of 13 off a loss while interstate favourites off a double digit loss cover at 37%. The most important umber though is this: double digit favourites off a double digit loss cover at 33% the last four seasons. That puts Souths into auto-bet territory and it is notable that home underdogs getting at least 10 points cover at 65%. They get some troops back this week with Latrell Mitchell and Jamie Humpheys. The plus is a great bet. Latrell Mitchell has seven tries in his last five against Brisbane. Jesse Arthars leads the tryscoring this year with 10 tries in nine matches.
Recommended Bets
- Best: South Sydney +10.5 ($1.90)
- Next: South Sydney Win ($3.75)
- Tryscorer: Latrell Mitchell ($15 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Latrell Mitchell Try/Jesse Arthars Try ($4.00)
The match of the round this week undoubtedly takes place in the nation’s capital with the Raiders hosting the Bulldogs in an all-Top 4 clash. Canberra had few issues with Canterbury during their dark period with nine straight wins but that run ended last year with the Bulldogs saluting 22-18. The Bulldogs have been hit hard by suspension with Jacob Preston copping four weeks but this is a very nice spot for them. They have covered seven of their last nine road games and 11 of their last 13 as an underdog. The Dogs have also covered eight of 11 off a win. There is not a lot to knock Canberra with but there are just 10-17 against the spread against Top 4 teams. Home teams $2 or shorter off an interstate game cover at just 37%. The value is with the Dogs. Bronson Xerri has 15 tries in 27 games since joining the Bulldogs. Matty Nicholson scored 16 tries in his last 43 Super League games and has opened up with five tries in eight matches with the Raiders.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +2.5 ($1.85)
- Next: Canterbury Win/Under 45.5 ($3.80)
- Tryscorer: Bronson Xerri ($14 First, $2.80 Anytime)
- SGM: Bronson Xerri Try/Matty Nicholson Try ($11.37)
The Dragons host the Warriors and the key to this one is the venue with St George Illawarra a different team at their suburban venues. This one will be played in Wollongong and that is of huge import. The Dragons are 24-14 against the spread at Kogarah and Wollongong including a 15-10 cover record when an underdog at the two venues. There is plenty of excitement around hulking debutant Loko Pasifiki Tonga too. The Warriors have been sensational this year and the concern here is the betting with the Wahs three of 11 covering when favoured. The Dragons are a classy play here. Tyrell Sloan has scored seven tries in seven matches this season since moving to the wing. Luke Metcalf has six tries in eight games this season with his running game on point.
Recommended Bets ‘
- Best: St George Illawarra +2.5 ($1.83)
- Next: St Geoge Illawarra 1-12 ($3.30)
- Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan ($9.25 First, $2.00 Anytime)
- SGM: Tyrell Sloan/Luke Metcalf ($6.06)
The Panthers showed that discussions of their passing was somewhat premature last week with a complete rout of the Broncos with Nathan Cleary’s try eerily reminiscent of his match winning try in the 2023 decider. Whether they are fully back remains to be seen but it was unquestionably their most Penrith-like performance of the season. As a favourite on the road they are a questionable bet though the Cowboys have covered just six of 18 at home. The best bet in this one is the under. Eight of the last 11 between these two teams have gone under the total. The under is 15-9 when the Panthers travel interstate and hits at 61.9% when they are off a big win of 24 or more. The under is 20-14 when the Cowboys are off a loss. Expect points to be at a premium in this one. Jaxon Purdue has been in elite form this year with seven tries in his last seven games. Blaize Talagi has scored in two of his last three for Penrith after an elite tryscoring record for Parramatta.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Under 49.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Under 41.5 ($3.25)
- Tryscorer: Jaxon Purdue ($16 First, $2.85 Anytime)
- SGM: Jaxon Purdue Try/Blaize Talagi Try ($10.63)
Melbourne off a loss are near impossible propositions to play against and so it will be for the three-time defending wooden spooners, who have everything against them this week. The Storm have won 11 straight off a loss while they have covered 10 of 15 off a defeat with an average winning margin north of 21. They love playing the Tigers with seven straight wins, winning their last six by double digits. They have covred six of seven at AAMI and 12 of 17 in day matches with an 8-2 cover record at AAMI in the afternoon. The Tigers are much improved this year but they are walking into a meat grinder here. Ryan Papenhuyzen is one of the best tryscorers in the world with two tries in his three games against the Tigers. Utoikamanu has four tries in 32 games the last two seasons and will be desperate to score against his former club.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -15.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Melbourne -29.5 ($4.00)
- Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($7.00 First, $1.55 Anytime)
- SGM: Ryan Papenhuyzen Try/Stefano Utoikamanu Try ($10.44)
There is always plenty of spice when the Sea Eagles and Sharks square off and Sunday should be no different with both teams in the Top 8 and both teams relatively healthy. The Sharks have certainly had the wood on Manly with five wins in the last six and seven covers in the last eight clashes. The Sharks have scored 20-plus in all eight of those. They’ve also wo
Iro has been in great tryscoring form this season with six tries in five games. Tom Trbojevic loves playing the Sharks with seven tries in his last seven games against the men from The Shire.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Cronulla +2.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Either Team Less Than 6.5 Points ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: KL Iro ($14 First, $2.60 Anytime)
- SGM: KL Iro Try/Tom Trbojevic Try ($5.50)