Wednesday, May 18.

MIAMI HEAT VS BOSTON CELTICS
Miami to Win + Butler to Score 25+ Points $2.94

Miami Heat plays host to Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Heat finished two wins ahead of the Celtics to claim the #1 seed in the East, though it’s Boston who has bragging rights in the pair regular-season series, claiming two of three games, including an 18-point victory at the FTX Arena.

That being said, the Heat picked up the win in their last outing against Boston, with Jimmy Bulter and Kyle Lowry combining for 47 points.

It comes as no surprise that Butler has been the Heats’ go-to man during the postseason, the determined small forward has averaged 29-8-5 in the 10 playoff fixtures he has started while hounding opposition guards on D.

Boston enters this clash off the back of an extremely draining 7-game series against the Greek Freak, and although they won’t be faced with the task of stopping one of the top 3 players of the league, they will have to fight tooth and nail against a “HEAT Culture” outfit who will look to bully them off the floor.

I’m backing the Heat to claim game 1 on their home floor, with Jimmy to send a message to the Celt’s young core with a dominating performance.

Saturday, May 14.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS BOSTON CELTICS
Milwaukee Bucks & Giannis 30+ Points $2.20

The Greek Freak is an unguardable monster!

Giannis has proven unstoppable against the best defensive team in the league, the two-time MVP is averaging a staggering 34-13-7 this series and I still feel like there’s another level he can go to!

A big reason for Giannis’ dominance in the paint has been the absence of Robert Williams, Boston’s center has been struggling with a knee injury and remains unlikely for game 6.

The Celtics did manage to snag a win without Williams in game 4, though that required a historic performance from a historic player in Al Holford, a feat I can’t see repeating in this lifetime.

I’m backing the Bucks to close out the series at home here courtesy of another Giannis 30 piece!

Friday, May 13.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS MIAMI HEAT
Joel Embiid Over 25.5 $1.90

76ers vs Heat returns to Philly in a do-or-die Game 6 for the hosts.

The Sixers were embarrassed in Miami last time out, going down by 35-points, with Joel the only 76er to register over 15 points (17)!

As hard as that defeat will be to swallow, the Sixers can take solace in knowing they’ve claimed two comfortable wins over the Heat at the Wells Fargo Center this series.

Philly’s success largely revolves around Joel Embiid, though the larger-than-life center has found the going tough in his three games against the Heat this series, scoring just 20 points a game, 10 below his season average.

It’s hard to place blame on the big man who is playing with a broken eye socket, an injury which would likely see Ben Simmons sit out a few seasons at least!

Though with their backs against the walls, the Sixers need to throw everything they have at this game, the stage is set for Embiid to silence his MVP critics and lug this S**tshow of a franchise onto his massive back!

The Bookies have dropped Embiid’s points line to 25.5, the lowest it’s been in a long time, so low that I can see the big man stepping over it early in the 3rd.

 

Wednesday, May 11.

PHOENIX SUNS VS DALLAS MAVERICKS
Mavericks (+6) $1.90

The Suns vs Mavericks series returns to Phoenix tied at 2-2.

Despite leaning heavily on Luka during games 1 & 2 (to no avail), it’s been the Mavs role players who have revived their conference finals bid.

Finney-Smith came up huge in Game 4, hitting 8/13 from deep, while Brunson, Kleber, Bullock, and even Bertans steeping up to assist Luka on the offensive end.

On the other side of the court, Chris Paul showed his age for the first time this season, managing just 17 points across the last two games, while fouling out in game 4.

Everyone thought the Mavs were going to be a one-man show this series, though ironically Booker has been that man for the Suns, hitting 35-4-7 in a losing side last time out.

It’s hard to see the Suns not making a few adjustments ahead of Game 5, along with CP3 rediscovering his range, though now the Mavs have found their shooting confidence I can’t see them getting blown out of the water here.

I’m backing this contest to be decided in the final one or two possessions of the game, with the Mavs +6 point advantage at the line looking like money!

Tuesday, May 10.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Memphis (+10) & Bane to score 20+ points$2.73

The Warriors look to go 3-1 up in the Western Conference Semi-final against the Grizzlies.

Memphis are likely to be without star guard Ja Morant, who suffered a knee injury after being grabbed by Jordan Poole in game 3.

With multiple ejections and countless dangerous plays, this series has been everything bar clean, and I’m not expecting things to settle down anytime soon.

Incredibly, the Grizzlies held a 20-4 record without Ja Morant during the regular season, and If the 2022 MIP is out for Game 4, I’m certain his teammates will all lift in his absence.

The bookies have overreacted to Ja’s potential injury, generously placing the line at +10 for the Griz, an insult they will likely rue.

I’m backing the Grizzlies to make this a close contest, with Desmond Bane shouldering the bulk of his side’s offensive duties.

NBA Tips – Sunday, May 8

BUCKS VS CELTICS
Bucks / Under 213.5

One of the more interesting playoff battles. Milwaukee come into the Sunday matchup as favourites after losing in emphatic fashion against the Celtics in Game 2.

Both games this series have finished at 190 and 195 total points so there is definitely value for the unders in this one and I back the Bucks to turn it around.

The Bucks had a 27-14 Home Record in the regular season and have only dropped one game at home in these playoffs.

 

 

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Steph Curry and Ja Morant 30+ Points

What a huge battle this has been from two of the most exciting Point Guards in the league.

Ja is coming off a monster 47 Point game as well as 34 in the first matchup and has proven to many in these playoffs that he will be a force to be reckoned with for many years to come.

Curry has scored 24 & 27 points this series but has missed a surprising number of FGs lately. The shot volume is there for Steph and I wouldn’t count his accuracy out for long.

This cheeky little 2 leg SGM goes for $4.80 and should pay if Curry starts to find his touch again.

NBA Tips – Saturday, May 7

MIAMI HEAT VS PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Miami 11+

It’s been a pretty dismal showing from the 76ers since they lost Joel Embiid. They return to Wells Fargo on Saturday after going down 119-103 in Miami on Thursday.

Without their paint bully and MVP Candidate, Miami has been able to run riot on offense and will probably go 3-0 in the series.

Both score lines this series have been 11+ and at $3.30 I reckon that is huge value.

DALLAS MAVERICKS VS PHOENIX SUNS
Jalen Brunson to score 20+ Points

The Mavs come back to Dallas after a less than desirable trip to Phoenix, they are 0-2 down in the series and need some help from Luka’s supporting cast if they want any hope of getting into the next round.

I like Jalen Brunson to stand up in this one. He’s been a bit slow to get out of the gates against the Suns, only scoring 9 and 13 in the two games this series but against the Jazz he was electric. 24, 41, 31, 23, 24 and 24 is what he scored in that series and the Mavs desperately need him to return to that form. Luka can’t do it all on his own and if the Mavs get the W here, I think it’s off the back of Brunson.

Thursday, May 5.

PHOENIX SUNS VS DALLAS MAVERICKS
Suns to Cover (-6.5) $1.90

The Mavs and the Suns suit up for Game 2 of the Western Conference Semi.

Phoenix took out Game 1 with relative ease despite, Luka Doncic jacking up an incredible 45 points, 12 boards, and 8 dimes!

The Suns have now gone 4-0 against the Mavs across the regular and postseason, with each win accompanied by a 7+ point margin.

In fact, Dallas are on a staggering ten-game losing streak against the Suns, a horror run that dates back to November 2019!

Phoenix has covered the line in four of their last five playoffs games, while also saluting against the spread 5-2 across the last seven games when starting as favourites.

There’s not much more Luka can do to carry this Mavs side, and until Mark Cuban can put some decent pieces around Doncic, this side will have to settle for 2nd round knockouts.

I’m backing the Suns to cover with ease here, while the Overs also looks tempting at 216 points!

Wednesday, May 4.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Memphis Grizzlies (+2) $1.90

The Grizzlies attempt to tie up the series at 1-1 when they play host to the Warriors in Game 2.

Game 1 between this pair was an absolute thriller, with both sides blowing serval opportunities down the stretch to put the match to bed.

Ja Morant cruised to a ridiculous stat line of 34-9-10, though his performance was slightly tainted by missing the game-winning layup.

We learned from the Grizzlies’ first-round match-up against the Timberwolves, that the young outfit will not stay from a fight, the Grizz fought back from four double-digit deficits to eventually win the series in game 6!

 

Saturday, April 30.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Ja Morant Under 45.5 Points, Rebound & Assists $1.87

The Grizzlies head to Minnesota looking to close out their first-round series against the Timberwolves.

Memphis currently holds a 3-2 advantage following yet another come-from-behind victory last time out.

Ja Morant was the hero in Game 5, dropping 30-13-9, including the match sealing layup in the dying seconds.

Despite Ja coming up big on a few occasions this series, the current MIP has failed to live up to his lofty standards when playing in Minnesota.

The crafty point guard has averaged 46 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA) at home during the first round while dropping to a substantially lower 35 PRA across the Grizzlies’ two home games.

Morant’s PRA O/U line for this game currently sits at 45.5, a number he has only bettered once this series, at home.