Sunday, February 28

Washington Wizards vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 11 am
Wolves +5.5

Over 80% of the action has come in on Washington so far, which is largely why I’m opting for the Wolves here. The line has already moved from 4 points to 5 and I’m expecting to see a few 5.5’s before tip.

This is a terrible situational spot for the Wizards, who are playing their first game back at home after an extended West Coast road trip. They’re a poor home side at the best of times, going just 5-9 straight up and 6-8 ATS. They’ve also been terrible as a favourite this season, covering just twice in seven games.

While it isn’t a great spot for Minnesota, they’ve at least gotten a full two days of rest here. The return of Jarrett Culver also gives them another playable option on the perimeter.

The Wizards aren’t stopping anybody, so I’d expect Towns to feast here. I’m expecting his teammates to do enough to at least keep this within 5.

Orlando Magic vs Utah Jazz, 12 pm
Jazz -10

The Jazz are coming off a rare loss last night and I’m expecting them to bounce back at the first opportunity. Laying 10 points isn’t ideal, but Orlando’s offense is so poor right now that this could easily be a blowout.

Utah have been an excellent road option for bettors this season, going 11-5 straight up and 10-6 ATS. They’ve also been excellent on no rest, covering 4 out of 5 times. The injury report is essentially empty here, so I’m expecting their full complement of players.

Injuries are really catching up to Orlando and they’ve been terrible of late. I think the Utah scheme will do a good job at limiting Vucevic and Evan ‘Don’t Google Me’ Fournier. I’m not confident in the Magic role players getting it done and I’m expecting a relatively comfortable Utah win.

Saturday, February 27

Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers, 11:30 am
Celtics -3

The Celtics appear to have entered crisis mode here, having dropped below .500 on the season. I’m backing Brad Stevens to turn things around, starting with a win and cover at home against Indiana.

Boston are still one of the better home sides in the NBA, going 8-5 straight up and an impressive 9-4 ATS. They’ve dealt with a few key injuries of late, but Kemba Walker should be ready to go here after resting last time out.

I think they’ve got a favourable matchup here on the perimeter and we should see a big game from Tatum here. Indiana do have the edge on the interior, but I don’t think that’ll be enough to pull off the upset. Boston have performed very well against this Pacers side in recent years and I’m expecting more of the same here.

Friday, February 26

New York Knicks vs Sacramento Kings, 11:30 am
Knicks -1.5

The Kings are an absolute mess right now, having failed to win or cover in any of their last 8 games. This is the 4th game of their east-coast road swing and the front end of a b2b.

The Knicks have largely been a solid home side this season, going 8-7 both straight up and ATS. The likely absence of Elfrid Payton isn’t ideal here, but I’m banking on the Quickley and Rose duo to pick up the slack.

This is primarily a fade of Sacramento, who’ve been in very poor form for a while and have a poor scheduling spot here. A line of just 1.5 points gives us a few points of value on the Knicks by my numbers, which is enough to fire a bet here.

Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Clippers, 12 pm
Clippers -7.5

These baseball-type series tend to produce some weird results, but I’m playing it simple and backing the Clippers -7.5 here. 23-10 straight up and 19-14 ATS are impressive numbers, but I think the Clippers are even better than that.

They’ve finally got all of their key men available and look to have a favourable matchup against Memphis here. Memphis’ wing depth is the main weakness on their roster and I don’t see how they contain Kawhi and PG here. I also think Pat Bev is one of the better defensive options to put on Ja Morant.

The Clippers have been among the best road sides in the NBA this season, going 11-4 straight up and 10-5 ATS. On the contrary, Memphis have struggled at home, winning just 6 of 15 matches so far. I’m expecting big games from Kawhi and PG here as the Clippers notch an important road win.

Thursday, February 25

New Orleans Pelicans vs Detroit Pistons, 12:10 pm
Pelicans 1st Half -5.5

After yesterday’s successful 1st half play, I’m going with another one here. This is a very poor spot for Detroit, from both a scheduling and motivational perspective.

They managed a very rare road win in Orlando last night and now travel to New Orleans on no rest. They’ll face a motivated and improving Pelicans side looking for revenge after last week’s double-digit loss to Detroit.

That game saw a triple-double from Mason Plumlee and a big game from Delon Wright, who’ll be out here. I’m expecting Zion to enjoy a field day on the inside, while Detroit struggles to put up points. They should start fast here, which is why I prefer the first half -5.5 over the double-digit full game line.

Chicago Bulls vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 12:10 pm
Bulls -4

It’s never a great sign to side with the public, but I’ll do so if it means fading the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wolves are an atrocious 3-14 on the road this season, winning 1 of their last 10 games in all arenas.

They come up against a Bulls side that has hovered around .500 and is 60% ATS on the season. They’ve just beaten two successive inferior teams and I’m expecting them to make that 3 straight here.

Russell and Culver have proven to be big losses for Minnesota, who have really struggled on the perimeter of late. This is also a very poor scheduling spot, playing a b2b and 3rd game in 4 nights on the road. I’m expecting this number to go up, so the current -4 for the Bulls should at least provide a hedging opportunity before tip.

Wednesday, February 24

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons, 11 am
Magic -2.5

Essentially the same situation we faced two days ago and I’m again looking to fade Detroit here. I think they’re the worst team in the NBA and should be getting more than 2.5 points against an increasingly healthy Orlando side.

Detroit have been absolutely woeful on the road this season, going just 2-14 straight up and 6-10 ATS. Even with all the injuries they’ve faced so far, Orlando are still a competent 8-8 straight up and ATS at home.

Vucevic and Fournier both had very impressive performances last time out and the matchups look set for them to do the same here. Detroit’s offense is lacklustre to say the least and I don’t think they’ve got enough to pull off the upset here.

LA Clippers vs Washington Wizards, 2 pm
Clippers 1st Half -5

The Wizards have just had consecutive wins over two of the NBA’s most overrated teams, so public perception is pretty high on them right now. Especially after an overtime win against the Lakers yesterday, this is a very poor scheduling spot.

The Clippers are finally getting healthy again and they should be motivated after a poor loss to Brooklyn last time out. Given Washington’s lack of quality wing depth, this also looks like a perfect matchup for Kawhi and PG.

They’ve got the quality perimeter defenders to at least limit Beal and Westbrook, while the Wizards aren’t stopping anyone on the other end. I’m not sure they’ll be able to sustain it the whole way, but I’d expect the Clippers to start fast here.

Tuesday, February 23

Houston Rockets vs Chicago Bulls, 12 pm
Bulls +1

Houston appear to be in shambles and it’s tough to peg them as favourites against anybody right now. Christian Wood has already been ruled out, with Oladipo as doubtful and Cousins as questionable here.

The Rockets have lost 8 of their last 9 contests, most of which were against some pretty dreadful sides. You’d have to think the focus now is on getting the younger guys some minutes and angling for better draft position.

The Bulls have actually been quite competitive this season and have regularly cashed tickets for bettors. 10-4 ATS on the road is particularly impressive, especially when compared to Houston’s 3-8. Injuries to Markkanen and Porter definitely hurt, but I ultimately think Chicago has a decent shot at the road upset here.

Monday, February 22

Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons, 11:05 am
Magic -2

Orlando finally seems to be getting a little bit healthier and I think that’ll be enough to power them past Detroit at home. Fournier, Carter-Williams, and Aminu are all key returns that allow them to put functional lineups on the floor against this anaemic Detroit side.

The Pistons are just 2-13 on the road this season and the key absences continue to pile up. Derrick Rose has been traded, Blake Griffin won’t play for the team again, rookie Killian Hayes is injured and Delon Wright is said to be doubtful here. Without their 3 top guards, generating offense will be painfully difficult.

Orlando continue to hang in there and have hovered around .500 at home this season. I expect Vuc to eat against this banged-up frontcourt, with his teammates doing just enough to get the win and cover the small 2-point line.

New York Knicks vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 11:10 am
Knicks -2.5

The Knicks have been decent at home this season, while Minnesota have struggled mightily on the road. Key injuries to Russell and Culver damage an already thin Wolves rotation and I don’t think 2.5 points is enough here.

While the Wolves are much more effective with KAT in the lineup, they’re still really struggling defensively. Guys like Randle and Barrett should get whatever they want offensively and I’m not sure Minnesota can match them.

The Minnesota bench is also one of the worst in the league, while the Knicks have a bunch of capable veterans in Gibson, D-Rose, and Burks. KAT is the best player on the floor here, but I don’t think his supporting cast is good enough to secure the win.

Sunday, February 21

Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors, 12:10 pm
Warriors -2

Update: Steph Curry ruled out last minute, which dramatically shifts the line. Avoid this one if you haven’t yet pulled the trigger.

It’s a poor scheduling spot for Golden State here, but I don’t mind them laying 2 points against Charlotte. They should be motivated after a poor loss last night and appear to match up relatively well with this Hornets side.

Their lack of bigs is a concern, although Charlotte aren’t exactly the team to capitalise on it. The Hornets themselves have a few key injuries, with Graham and the Martin brothers out and Hayward listed as questionable.

Steph Curry has shot it relatively poorly the last few games, but the law of averages, and a poor Charlotte defence, could be the recipe for a big night here. Overall, I think Golden State’s small ball lineup will do just enough to get the win and cover here.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards, 2:10 pm
Blazers -3.5

77% of people are also on the Portland side here, which tells you there’s something we’re probably overlooking. Despite their injuries, this is still an excellent matchup for Portland, especially at the PG spot.

Lillard has dominated Russ in recent years and I’m not sure how the Wizards contain him here. Portland also have solid enough wing defenders to at least contain Bradley Beal and Co.

Given Portland’s excellent recent form and home record, combined with Washington’s road struggles, 3.5 points does seem a little low here. I could see it being a close one late on, but Portland should have enough to get the job done.

Saturday, February 20

Memphis Grizzlies vs Detroit Pistons, 12 pm
Grizzlies -4.5

Grizzlies -4.5 does look like a square bet here, but those have been cashing like crazy lately. Detroit is bereft of talent right now and have been putting some truly horrendous offensive lineups out there.

They’ve gone just 2-12 on the road this season and that was with a stronger roster than they’ve got now. They were reliant on Jerami Grant to go off for 43 against Chicago last time out, a game they still ended up losing.

Memphis haven’t been anything special this season and they’re still dealing with a few long-term injuries. But with Ja Morant leading the way, I’m confident they can beat an anaemic Detroit side at home and cover the 5-point line in the process.

Friday, February 19

Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors, 11:30 am
Raptors +6.5

I’m going to take the Raptors here, currently getting 6.5 points away at Milwaukee. It’s not easy to beat the same team twice in a row, but the Bucks just haven’t been the same side this season.

They’re just 16-12 going into this one, having lost each of their last 4 games. They’ve become a much more top-heavy roster this season and Jrue Holiday’s continued absence is huge.

Admittedly, Toronto haven’t been anything special this season, but they at least appear to be heading in the right direction. I think they’ve got what it takes to at least keep this one close, so +6.5 looks to be strong enough value.

LA Lakers vs Brooklyn Nets, 2:10 pm
Harrell Over 14.5 Points

Given all the injuries involved here, I’m looking to make a prop bet. With how poor Brooklyn have been at defending the interior, I like Montrezl Harrell over 14.5 points.

With AD now out for an extended period, Harrell should start to see a much bigger role off the second unit. He has had some bigger performances of late, including his 20 points in 33 minutes against OKC last week.

Brooklyn have been shambolic against backup bigs of late, with Hassan Whiteside going for 26 and 16 against them just a few days ago. They’ll likely be fatigued here at the end of their road trip, which doesn’t bode well against an energy big like Harrell.

Against this Brooklyn side, Harrell should really be seeing 25+ minutes and getting at least 10 field goal attempts. If he hits those numbers, I’m confident he goes over 14.5 here.