Thursday, March 12

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz, 12 pm
Thunder ML

While no line is currently up for this game, I like the spot for OKC here. Utah have really fallen off of late, covering only twice in their last 10 games.

OKC have been solid both home and away this season, compiling a 20-13 record in front of their home fans. Their recent form has been particularly inspiring, winning 8 of their last 10 games straight up.

Shai Gilgeous Alexander is expected to play here, meaning they’ll have no key injuries to report. They’ve also had a full 2 days of rest in the leadup to this clash, giving them a much-needed rest advantage.

I’d anticipate this line to come out around even, at which point the Thunder are very good value. They’ll be playing very hard for seeding here and I think they’ve got a great shot of taking this one outright.

Sacramento Kings vs New Orleans Pelicans, 2:30 pm
Pelicans ML

This is another intriguing battle between two sides with identical records thus far. Although the Kings have been slightly better of late, New Orleans’ greater top-end talent makes me think they win this one.

The Kings just haven’t had a good home court advantage this season, going 14-17 straight up and 12-17-2 ATS. New Orleans have a better road record than they do at home, which has only improved since the return of Zion.

JJ Redick remains the only key injury for the Pelicans, while Sacramento are dealing with a myriad of frontcourt injuries to Holmes, Bagley, and Parker. This should allow Zion to feast and he could easily prove to be the difference here.

I also like the defensive matchup for New Orleans, with Jrue Holiday more than capable of containing De’Aaron Fox. In another game that should have a relatively even line, I’ll take New Orleans for the straight up win.

Wednesday, March 11

Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns, 1 pm
Blazers -4.5

Portland are laying 4.5 points here against Phoenix and I really like the revenge angle for them. They were soundly beaten by Phoenix this past weekend and I can see them settling that score here.

First and foremost, Portland has a pretty strong advantage on the perimeter. Phoenix just don’t have the bodies to guard Dame and CJ, which could lead to a high-scoring game.

I’d also expect the Blazers to have a much better plan to guard Aron Baynes this time, who inexplicably went off for 37 and 16 in their last matchup. Portland still tend to perform much better at home, compiling a 17-14 record thus far.

In the midst of a 6-game home stand, this is the stretch that likely makes or breaks their season. I think they get back on track with a win here and that they cover the 4.5-point line the majority of the time.

Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers, 1:30 pm
Clippers -10.5

The Clippers are laying 10.5 points away at Golden State and I’d expect this to be a relatively comfortable victory. This play is predicated on the absences of both Steph and Draymond, which look quite likely.

LA have performed well after a loss this season and they took a high-profile loss to their cross-town rivals last time out. They match up incredibly well with Golden State here, especially against their decimated wings.

The Warriors have a historically bad home record this season, having gone just 8-25 straight up. This is the Clippers only game until the weekend, so I can’t see injuries or fatigue really affecting them here.

With the players Golden State will be suiting up here, we’ve got a matchup between arguably the most and least talented teams in the NBA. I think the Clippers control this one from start to finish, comfortably covering the 10.5-point line in the process.

Tuesday, March 10

Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte Hornets, 11:30 am
Hornets +5

The Hornets find themselves as 5-point underdogs away at Atlanta, a game they have a good shot of covering. Atlanta has an incredibly long injury list, many of whom I’d expect to miss this clash.

I count injuries to 10 Atlanta players in the most recent injury report, most notably to Trae Young, Clint Capela, and Kevin Huerter. Charlotte enter this clash essentially injury free, with only Malik Monk missing from their regular rotation.

These teams are relatively even to begin with, let alone with Atlanta dealing with this myriad of injuries. Their home record is nothing special, going just 13-19 on the season and 4-6 in their last 10.

The Hornets have been cashing tickets regularly of late, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10. I think they’re still undervalued in the market and have a great chance of covering this +5 line.

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks, 1 pm
Nuggets ML $1.71

I had success fading Milwaukee yesterday and I plan to do the same thing here today. Denver are currently $1.71 to win this game, which is a good enough price to justify.

The Bucks will be without star Giannis Antetokounmpo here, who they really missed yesterday. I expect them to be relatively fatigued here, playing their 3rd and final game of a cross-country road trip.

Denver have been in pretty poor form of late, but they still maintain an excellent 24-8 home record. Without Giannis, I think they’ve got a huge advantage in the frontcourt, which I’d expect Jokic to exploit.

Considering their injuries and travel fatigue, this would be a very surprising win if Milwaukee could pull it off. I think the money continues to pour in on Denver until tip-off, so get in quick.

 

Monday, March 9

Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks, 9 am
Suns +5.5

With Giannis’ status up in the air, this line has opened up as Milwaukee -5.5. I think Giannis is unlikely to play here, making Phoenix great value at this number.

Phoenix haven’t been a great home side at all this season, but their win over Portland last time out should prove to be rejuvenating. Milwaukee’s defence takes a real hit without Giannis and the Booker/Baynes duo could prove deadly again here.

From a fatigue standpoint, the Bucks are also in the middle of a cross-country West Coast trip. They just played a marquee game against the Lakers on Saturday, before flying to Phoenix for an early start. This is a prime letdown spot, especially considering all the injuries.

There’s no reason Phoenix shouldn’t be well-rested here, playing their 6th consecutive home game. Only Oubre and Ayton are expected to miss here, meaning most of their original rotation is intact.

Through the key number of 5, I see some great value on Phoenix here. I wouldn’t be against the moneyline either, currently around $3.

Houston Rockets vs Orlando Magic, 11 am
Rockets -9

The Rockets open as 9-point favourites here and I think they’re good value to win and cover. They had a disastrous loss in Charlotte last night, but this is a prime bounce back spot.

Russell Westbrook sat out last night due to rest and his return should really bolster the offence here. Houston have impressively won 70% of their home games this season, while Orlando are a poor 12-20 on the road.

Orlando are also really banged up here, likely entering this game without Fournier, Isaac, and Aminu. This really weakens them on both ends of the floor in a game where they’re already at a disadvantage. Coach Steve Clifford has also been battling some health concerns and may not be 100% here.

The Magic defence has been shaky lately and I don’t see how they cope with Houston’s small ball 5. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair, so I’m not too worried about laying 9 points here.

Sunday, March 8

Detroit Pistons vs Utah Jazz, 11 am
Pistons +8.5

Absolutely nobody wants to back Detroit right now, but I think they’re undervalued for this very reason. They’re getting 8.5 points at home to Utah, a game they should be able to keep competitive.

Only 15% of punters like Detroit early on, indicative of how much of a contrarian pick this is. That said, the line appears to be moving in their favour, suggesting the sharps like the underdogs here.

Despite only winning 1 in their last 10, the Pistons have an impressive 6 covers in that time span. Utah haven’t been great of late either, only covering 3 in 10 themselves.

This is the fourth and final game of their East-Coast trip, after an emotional win in Boston yesterday. Detroit on a back-to-back represents a prime letdown game, one which they won’t really get up for. It’s unlikely that they win, but Detroit can keep this one within 8.5.

Golden State Warriors vs Philadelphia 76ers, 12:30 pm
Warriors +2.5

I’m working under the assumption that Ben Simmons will be out injured for this one. With Steph and likely Draymond back in the fold, I think there’s some value on Golden State getting 2.5 points.

They’ve tended to put in much better efforts in primetime home games this season, covering again against Toronto last time out. Steph looked good in his return from injury and lightened the load on his teammates.

Philly have been an atrocious road side all season, going just 10-23 straight up and 9-22-2 ATS. With no Embiid, Simmons, and Richardson, they take a real hit on both ends of the floor.

I can also see fatigue being somewhat of an issue for Philly, with this being their 4th and final game of a gruelling West-Coast trip. This is a coin-flip type of game, but I’ll take the team with the best player and homecourt getting 2.5 points.

Saturday, March 7

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat, 12 pm
Pels -1.5

I like the spot for New Orleans here, opening as 1.5-point home favourites over Miami. This is a bet against Miami’s poor road form, with the Heat going 13-18 straight up and 12-19 ATS on the road thus far.

The Pels have looked much better since the return of Zion Williamson and still aren’t completely out of the playoff race. They’re doing relatively well from an injury standpoint, with only JJ Redick expected to miss this one.

The Heat have been in good form of late, but a lot of this is due to their home-heavy schedule. They have a huge home/road disparity this season, making it quite difficult to win against an upstart New Orleans side.

The line suggests this game will be quite close, which I agree with. I think New Orleans just edge it here, likely due to a big game from Zion.

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies, 12:30 pm
Mavs -8

The Mavericks are sizeable 8-point favourites here, a number that I think they can and should cover. Memphis have slipped a little bit of late and I don’t think they’re well-equipped to handle the Dallas offence.

Dallas haven’t been great as a home side this season, going just 17-14 straight up and 12-18-1 ATS. That said, I think they’re starting to become quite undervalued at home as a result.

Their injury report is rather extensive for this one, however most of their key players are likely to suit up here. The Grizzlies are still decimated at the forward spots, which doesn’t bode well against the duo of Doncic and Porzingis.

Dallas is all but assured of a playoff spot, although they’re still battling hard with OKC for the #6 seed. I expect a motivated and professional performance here, one that likely results in a win and cover.

Friday, March 6

Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets, 11 am
Nuggets -5

While no line has been released for this game, early indications are that it will be Denver -5. I think the Nuggets will be extremely motivated after their poor loss last time out and should be poised for a bounce-back game.

Charlotte are one of the worst home teams in the NBA, going just 9-20 straight up and 13-16 ATS. Although their home form is much better, Denver have still won a solid 60% of their road games this season.

All things look good from an injury perspective for Denver, with only Noah Vonleh expected to miss this one. Devonte Graham is questionable for Charlotte here, which would really be a huge hit to their offense.

With this being only the first game of their road trip, I don’t see fatigue being a major issue for what should be a motivated Denver side. They should be fighting very hard for playoff seeding and I’d expect a win and cover here.

Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers, 12 pm
Clippers +1

The Clippers open as 1-point underdogs here and I like them to win this match outright. They’ve been in some excellent recent form and enter this clash rested and injury-free.

Both of these sides play a relatively similar brand of basketball, the Clippers are just better equipped to do it. They’ve got a huge edge on the wing, which could result in big days for Kawhi and PG.

The LA defence has been very impressive lately and I think they’ve got the tools to shut down Harden and Co here. They have two full rest days after this one, meaning they can afford to extend their starter’s minutes.

Although they’ve been in better form of late, Houston’s loss to the Knicks showed how vulnerable their defence can be. I expect another great display from the Clippers wings here, ultimately resulting in an outright win.

Thursday, March 5

Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic, 11:30 am
Heat -7.5

The Heat are laying 7.5 points at home to Orlando here, a game I expect them to win and cover. They’ve been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, securing a 26-4 record thus far. They’ve done especially well against the number, going 20-9-1 ATS.

Orlando, on the other hand, are a relatively poor road side. They’ve gone just 11-19 on the season and won only 4 of their last 10 overall.

On the injury front, Aaron Gordon missed for Orlando last time out and is questionable to go here. His absence would he huge and shift the balance further in Miami’s favour.

The Heat are battling for seeding right now and can’t risk losing a game like this to drop out of the top 4. I expect a motivated display that sees their dominant home record continue, ultimately ending in a win.

Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards, 2 pm
Wizards +8

Washington are getting 8 points on the road here in Portland, and I think they’re decent value to cover here. Portland are flying across the country after an East-Coast road trip, which should impact their energy here.

The Wizards are admittedly playing on a back-to-back, but they’ve got a much shorter distance to travel here. They’ve also been playing a fairly deep rotation, with nothing serious on the injury report.

Dame Lillard is slated to return for Portland here, his first game back after an extended absence. I can see him taking some time to get back into rhythm, which could result in a sluggish start for the Blazers.

Having only gone 27-35 so far, Portland aren’t exactly the type of side that should be laying 8 points. I can see this one being fairly close and will take the 8 points of insurance with Washington.

Wednesday, March 4

OKC Thunder vs LA Clippers, 12 pm
Clippers -3

With so many injuries on today’s slate, a lot of the game lines are really up in the air. There aren’t expected to be any key injuries in this one and I like the look of the Clippers -3 points.

They appear to have turned a corner of late, comprehensively winning in each of their last 4 games. They’re still fighting for playoff seeding, so I’d expect them to play fairly hard for the next 6 weeks.

While OKC have been a good story on paper, they just don’t match up well with some of the best teams in the NBA. Especially against this Clippers side, I think their lack of two-way wings will really hurt them.

Their backcourt has performed well all season, but I’d expect the Clippers perimeter defence to contain them here. Although he didn’t leave on bad terms, this is somewhat of a revenge game for Paul George, who should be very motivated. Especially at this relatively low line, I think the Clippers are good value for a road win and cover.

Tuesday, March 3

Orlando Magic vs Portland Trail Blazers, 11 am
Under 222.5

In a day short of value spread plays, I’m looking to make a play on the total here. The current total is set at 222.5 here, having already come down from the 223 opener, and I still see some value on the under.

Dame Lillard has already been ruled out for this one and Portland games have trended under in his absence. Portland just haven’t been a good road team all season, with their 10-22 record largely due to poor offence.

While Orlando are nothing special, they look set for a second consecutive playoff berth this season. They hang their hat on the defensive end, where they can contain limited offences like the Portland one without Dame.

222.5 is a relatively average total in today’s NBA, which I think is too high here due to the injuries and anticipated slow pace.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11:30 am
Heat +2

It takes a brave man to bet against Milwaukee at the minute, but the value is there in this matchup. Miami are getting 2 points as a home underdog here and I think they’ve got every chance to win it outright.

This is a side that has been dynamite at home all season, going 25-4 straight up and 19-9-1 ATS. Fatigue shouldn’t be an issue either, with this being their of a 4-game home stand.

Injuries and fatigue should both be against Milwaukee in this matchup. This is their third game in 4 nights, playing yesterday against the Hornets. Kyle Korver and Khris Middleton both missed that clash and both could very easily miss this one too.

Giannis has also been dealing with some back soreness of late, which isn’t ideal against Miami’s wing depth. This has all the makings of a very competitive game and getting the 2 points with Miami could make all the difference.