Nations Championship Rugby Week 3 Predictions & Tips

It’s tough to bet against New Zealand at Eden Park, so we’re not going to. The All Blacks have been well below their best in wins over France and Italy, but they were always going to improve with time under their belt for coach Dave Rennie. He has made some changes since taking over, and although they’re not playing at 100%, they’re playing well enough to beat Ireland, who have beaten Australia and Japan. The ABs haven’t lost at Eden Park since 1994, and they should score by around two converted tries.

This is Japan’s biggest game in years, and it gives them a chance to showcase their improved style of play. Japan scored an upset win over Italy to get things started in the Nations Championship before losing to Ireland 38-20. That was a credible effort, and if they can bring that passion to the field on Saturday, they should cover the +27.5 spread. It’s a big number for a French team playing slightly below its best, and we have France winning 36-18, which is enough for Japan +27.5 to come through for punters.

If the Wallabies are ever going to produce an 80-minute display during this tournament, it has to come against Italy. They should have beaten Ireland in their opening game, and they played well for 40 minutes against France, but now they need to show something better. Playing Italy, who were thumped by New Zealand last week, is a recipe for success, and this game could reignite Australian rugby. Playing in Perth should help the Wallabies, and expectations should be high for a one-sided victory, so include Australia -17.5 in Nations Championship best bets. We should see bets come for Australia at the line, so it could move to around -18.5 before kickoff.

One of our best bets of the week is Scotland -17.5 against Fiji. The Scots have looked good throughout the tournament, including a win over Argentina in Round 1, before pushing South Africa to within 14 points last week. Despite losing, it was arguably a better performance than their win over Argentina, so things are looking up for Scotland. The same can’t be said for Fiji, which lost 73-8 to England last week. They’re forced to play a home game at Murrayfield, which is brutal, and it doesn’t do them any favours. Covering a -17.5 spread won’t be difficult for Scotland, who will have a big home crowd on hand.

Like many top-tier nations, South Africa hasn’t looked their best in the Nations Championship. However, with two games under their belt, they should be ready to produce a big effort against Wales. The Springboks did enough to beat Scotland last week without being in fear of losing, but the floodgates could open against a Wales team that can leak points quickly. Wales has played well enough so far, including a win over Fiji, but it’s not the best form guide, and the Springboks get the advantage of playing at altitude, which favours their kicking attack. The -40.5 line is sizable, but it could be a one-sided game from the outset.

One of the best games this week is Argentina vs. England, where the home side is the current underdog. England comes off a big win over Fiji, but that came at home, and playing Argentina in Argentina is one of the toughest tests in world rugby. Therefore, we give the edge to Argentina at better odds. They scored a quality win over Wales last week, and it was a good bounce-back performance having lost to Scotland in their opener. The result of this game could come down to a pivotal moment in the second half, and we have Argentina doing enough to get past England, who could fatigue late in the game due to the travel factor.