As a primer for trade period, which starts next week, I always find it fun to ask the question of who has the most trade value in the AFL?
This game, of course, lives in a galaxy far, far away where the AFL has any semblance of a free market for player movement rather than whatever we have now. It’s more of a thought experiment for after the season.
To answer the question, you need to take into account age, positional value, and contract status. Younger players are obviously worth more, which is why you won’t see anyone over 26 on this list other than the key defenders and the ornaments.
Long-contracted players are also worth more because, in the absence of any actual visibility on what their contracts look like, I assume that there is cost certainty in a longer-contracted player. If you trade for a player who’s out of contract, like the Bulldogs are about to do with Zak Butters, they have to both stump up the picks for him and pay him at the top of the market because every gun who hits the market will necessarily reset it.
I’ve been writing this column for a few years now and over the last two, the face of the column has changed massively as the Daicos/Darcy/Reid era has officially overtaken the Petracca/Bontempelli/Neale era. I have also found that this year was one of the hardest years to do it because there are so many good young players in the competition.
It’s an exciting time to be following footy, so let’s get into it.
Tier 7 – The Ornaments
34. Patrick Dangerfield (36, 1 year left)
33. Patrick Cripps (31, 1 year left)
32. Marcus Bontempelli (31, 3 years left)
31. Max Gawn (35, 1 year left)
This group of four is a little different to the rest of the piece.
While they’re still playing very good footy, especially Gawn and Bontempelli, their value to their clubs goes beyond just the footy they play. They’re like Don Corleone post-shooting, where maybe there’s a little something missing but it’s important to have them around not least because there’s still the occasional moment of genius left in them.
There was a time where Toby Greene would have rounded out this list but that has since passed. It’s glib to say that footy is a business, but I maintain that these four cannot possibly change their clubs.
Tier 6 – The Suns
30. Jacob Weitering (29, 5 years left)
29. Harris Andrews (30, 3 years left)
28. Sam Taylor (27, 6 years left)
You could almost have these guys on top. Unless their teams want a major rebuild, none of them are getting traded. And if they do get traded, we’ll see what the competition thinks of them.
They play a high-value position and are scarcer than political honesty.
Modern defending is team based, but it’s built around one player. What I mean is that the modern defences are like the solar system, where everything orbits the sun. The whole game is set around the movement and ability of one player. You can look at how Jake Lever being out for Melbourne impacted them at the back end of the season because the rest of the defence didn’t have a sun around whom they could set themselves.
I have them low because of the rules of the game and all of their ages, but these guys decide games and seasons. We in the Grand Final that Harris Andrews elevated in the second half, while Fremantle looked all at sea when Alex Pearce went out.
It really helps to have these blokes.
Tier 5 – In their pomp
27. Zak Butters (26, TBC years left)
26. Noah Anderson (24, 2 years left)
25. Bailey Smith (26, 4 years left)
24. Max Holmes (24, 2 years left)
23. Caleb Serong (25, 8 years left)
This group is basically the prototype version of the group of players in Tier 2. They’re the Tony Soprano to the modern Jackson Lamb.
All of these guys are in the 22 (disposals), 400 (metres gained), 25 (% score involvement) club alongside the Tier 2 group, they’re just a little bit older and in the case of Holmes and Anderson in particular, were a little down on their usual output.
Caleb Serong is one that sticks out here because he’s the one of the group that gets outside of contest the least. However, his grand final was prodigious and he showed the value of having a savant at the bottom of packs getting the ball out to the runners whom the game currently favours. To that point, there were 11 total midfielders in the competition who got at least 7 first possessions, only Isaac Heeney was better than Serong at turning that volume of first possessions into clearances.
The other one I want to comment on is Zak Butters. He’s the only player on this list that is actually going to be traded this offseason. Based on what Butters seems likely to be traded for, and the contract the Bulldogs are going to give him, he should be number 1 on this list. But this is a game that exists outside of AFL realities, where there is no player nomination and the market is far more open than it currently is. If that was the case, this is about where Butters’ value slots in.
He’s clearly a star, but he’s got a big hole in his game. He’s like Zoolander, except he’s good at turning left and not good at kicking goals.
He has never kicked more than 13 goals in a season despite getting fewer disposals than only Bailey Smith in the attacking midfield area. He’s also not a massive score assister. Last season his scoreboard impact was 6.5 points a game, tied with Bailey Williams and Isaak Kako for 164th in the competition among players who played at least 15 games.
Butters is physical and strong but he’s also tireless and explosive. I’m not trying to diminish him, I’m just justifying the ranking.
Tier 4 – What am I supposed to do with these guys?
22. Jason Horne-Francis (23, 2 years left)
21. Jagga Smith (20, 3 years left)
20. Harry Sheezel (22, 6 years left)
I find this group of three difficult.
However, they do have flaws that keep them out of the higher tiers, where you might otherwise expect them.
Horne Francis looks extraordinary when he’s on, but too often falls out of games. Sheezel’s best role still eludes him somewhat and he still has the tendency to play a bit laterally, albeit that could be a product of Alastair Clarkson’s system. Smith was prolific in his first true year but lacks the kind of inside to out burst that really makes a modern player and drove the player he’s probably most like, Sam Walsh, to greater heights this season.
There is room for all of these guys to grow and they could certainly make their way into higher tiers, but for the time being they have to be lower.
Tier 3 – Key Position Mafia
19. Mitch Georgiades (25, 3 years left)
18. Jacob van Rooyen (23, 3 years left)
17. Aaron Cadman (22, 4 years left)
16. Riley Thilthorpe (24, 2 years left)
15. Jobe Shanahan (20, 2 years left)
14. Josh Treacy (24, 4 years left)
13. Reuben Ginbey (22, 4 years left)
Even if the archetypes around the ball have changed, the incontrovertible truth in footy is you still need key position guns. The key forward is football’s leading man: even as everything else changes, it just bloody helps to have one.
These guys are the Chalamets. They’re all already good, but they’re all probably going to get a lot better, especially if Josh Treacy can channel a bit of Marty Supreme and arrogantly walk through his problems.
All the key forwards here kicked at least 29 goals, with the youngest of the group Jobe Shanahan the low man in a very poor West Coast team. Even Riley Thilthorpe, who had a down year, managed 37. Beyond the goals, key forwards provide structure to teams especially in a modern game that is prioritising genuine full-forwards again and has as many dangerous small forwards as it does.
The odd man out, who is also at the top of the list, is Reuben Ginbey. In a besieged West Coast team all year, Ginbey was a ray of light for his 13 games. He truly played on the best player every week and was often successful. Among all key backs who played at 13 games, Ginbey was in 2.5 1v1 situations a game (16 total). He lost 9% of them, the league’s lowest mark.
The other point to make on Ginbey is scarcity. He’s essentially the only young key back in the competition that has shown real promise. West Coast finding him outside the top-5 and as a midfielder is footy’s version of Tony B finding that money. With him locked up for 4 years and a promising list around him, they seem less likely to squander it.
Tier 2 – May the game be ever in their favour
12. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (23, 1 year left)
11. Izak Rankine (26, 1 year left)
10. Finn Callaghan (23, 3 years left)
9. Errol Gulden (24, 2 years left)
8. Kysiah Pickett (25, 8 years left)
7. Luke Jackson (25, 3 years left)
With a 1:04 to go in the Grand Final, just after Logan Morris kicked the goal to put Brisbane in front, it was Jackson v Draper in the ruck. In commentary, Kane Cornes called for Jackson to grab the ball out of the ruck, but because of the new ruck rules he was able to do something better. He exploded high above Sam Draper and tapped it deftly to Shai Bolton who emerged from the centre clearance and got the ball in deep.
The Dockers couldn’t score but the sequence was instructive. Every single rule change in the AFL has been made to benefit the blokes in this tier. The throw up rule and distance rules have benefited the most athletic ruckmen like Jackson, while also providing more certainty around where the ball will go for mids.
Footy this year turned into the Brad Pitt fight in Snatch, except the rigging went exactly to plan.
As a result, the shape of the best midfielders has changed from the Nat Fyfe/Matt Rowell type bulls, to the hyper explosive athletes like the guys in this tier. The players in this tier are the Shai Boltons. The ones who can run a pattern and burn their man, then turn it into a clearance and a goal while still getting hard balls when they need to.
You won’t find Matt Rowell on this list anymore. The only reason you don’t see Shai Bolton is because he’s 28 now.
Outside of Jackson, who is his own category in this tier, this group of players are among the 15 who averaged at least 22 disposals a game and gained at least 400 metres while still being involved in about a quarter of their teams scores. They’re high volume, big metreage, game wreckers.
On a more macro level, there were an average 129 contested possessions in the 2026 AFL season. Other than the COVID year in 2020 where games were shorter, that is the lowest since 2012 (as far back as I have the stat). By the same token, teams scored 35 points a game this year from stoppage which is the most since 2017 (again, as far back as I have the stat).
Just a note that Chad Warner would have been on this list, but his legal troubles make his trade value virtually impossible to calculate.
Tier 1 – Present and Future
6. Logan Morris (21, 3 years left)
5. Nick Watson (21, 3 years left)
4. Will Ashcroft (22, 4 years left)
3. Harley Reid (21, 2 years left)
2. Sam Darcy (23, 3 years left)
1. Nick Daicos (23, 3 years left)
Each of these players are under 24 and are in some way defining modern football.
Nick Daicos is coming off the best year an individual player has had probably since Dusty in 2017, Harley Reid has introduced an uncommon aggression into his game, Will Ashcroft should already have three Norms, Nick Watson is taking issue with the idea that “fast guys get slower” during games, and Logan Morris is like a souped up Jack Gunston in an era where ball movement is king.
The other one is Sam Darcy who is coming off an ACL which is no longer a death knell, but is already averaging 2 goals a game in his career and is an uncommon athlete for his size. Given the role he plays, and how well he’s played in his career so far, the only argument is whether he should be on top of this list.
This group of players are already defining football today with Brownlows, Norm Smiths, and All-Australians. But make no mistake, this is the group to take the game into the future.
Full List
Tier 1
- Nick Daicos (23, 3 years left)
- Sam Darcy (23, 3 years left)
- Harley Reid (21, 2 years left)
- Will Ashcroft (22, 4 years left)
- Nick Watson (21, 3 years left)
- Logan Morris (21, 3 years left)
Tier 2
- Luke Jackson (25, 3 years left)
- Kysiah Pickett (25, 8 years left)
- Errol Gulden (24, 2 years left)
- Finn Callaghan (23, 3 years left)
- Izak Rankine (26, 1 year left)
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (23, 1 year left)
Tier 3
- Reuben Ginbey (22, 4 years left)
- Josh Treacy (24, 4 years left)
- Jobe Shanahan (20, 2 years left)
- Riley Thilthorpe (24, 2 years left)
- Aaron Cadman (22, 4 years left)
- Jacob van Rooyen (23, 3 years left)
- Mitch Georgiades (25, 3 years left)
Tier 4
- Harry Sheezel (22, 6 years left)
- Jagga Smith (20, 3 years left)
- Jason Horne Francis (23, 2 years left)
Tier 5
- Caleb Serong (25, 8 years left)
- Bailey Smith (26, 4 years left)
- Max Holmes (24, 2 years left)
- Noah Anderson (24, 2 years left)
- Zak Butters (26, TBC years left)
Tier 6
- Sam Taylor (27, 6 years left)
- Harris Andrews (30, 3 years left)
- Jacob Weitering (29, 5 years left)
Tier 7
- Max Gawn (35, 1 year left)
- Marcus Bontempelli (31, 3 years left)
- Patrick Cripps (31, 1 year left)
- Patrick Dangerfield (36, 1 year left)