We’ve reached the Prelim stage of the 2026 NRL Finals, and Oscar Pannifex has wasted no time ripping in to both games across Friday and Saturday.
The Phins battle the Chooks for the third time this season in front of a sold-out Suncorp Stadium, while the Panthers have been installed as heavy favourites to return to the Grand Final stage with a win over the Knights!
A fully fit squad fresh off an extra week’s preparation has this Dolphins side well placed to advance to their first NRL Grand Final.
The spaces around Daly Cherry-Evans and Siua Wong remain a spot for opposing teams and it lines up against Redcliffe’s greatest strength this week. The Dolphins left edge is the most lethal in the competition right now and we should expect them to score – or at the very least create scoring opportunities – down that channel in this one.
It mightn’t come early though. Redcliffe have made a bad habit of starting slowly throughout the regular season and while they know they’ll enjoy impact from their bench rotation, the Phins can’t allow Easts to get away to a fast start. Once fatigue sets in and the game settles into a grind though, this Dolphins squad can hurt you in so many different ways and from so many different areas on the field.
With all that in mind though, there’s a bit of a narrative forming around Easts too and I’m happy to give them a chance here.
An injury-hit Sharks side presented the Chooks with a training run last weekend and they responded to the tune of 46 points. After failing to ask many questions inside-twenty the week before, Easts appeared determined to hit the tram lines and put James Tedesco, Hugo Savala and Cherry-Evans into ballplaying involvements out wide.
We saw both backrowers consistently lay leads inside the two-man (defensive centre) to create space for Robert Toia and/or Billy Smith and that’s where I’m looking again here. If Redcliffe’s wingers miss their cues to jam, the Roosters centres will make them pay.
Tips: Sydney Roosters 1-12 @ $3.20
Anytime Tryscorer: Robert Toia @ $2.70, Mark Nawaqanitawase @$1.96
Newcastle’s ability to play to their strengths has helped to offset the absence of both Trey Mooney and Jacob Saifiti in recent weeks. They’ve been a shift-happy team all season but to reproduce that style under the pressure of finals footy is a credit to the Knights players and coaching staff.
It’s been a hell of a run for Newcastle but I’m tipping the fairytale to end here.
Where South Sydney and New Zealand failed to expose the Knights thinning forward rotation, expect Penrith to be far more clinical.
Their system is predicated on putting fatigue into the opposition middle and setting the game up early to win it late. Look for Nathan Cleary to constantly tip forward runners back against the grain in yardage and good-ball, testing the Knights ruck until the spaces appear.
When they eventually do, the points might come out wide but it’ll start with the work of Cleary around the ruck.
In defence, the Panthers system also profiles well against Newcastle’s greatest strength this year; their willingness and ability to shift the ball out of the back field.
Penrith have set the modern trend for getting high and staying high on the edges to either force the ball back infield or dare you to make the pressure pass. When the Knights look to move the ball from their own side of halfway on Sunday, they must be prepared to do so in the face of a rushing defence.
Tips: Penrith Panthers to Cover the Line (-10.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Tryscorer: Blaize Talagi @ $3, Nathan Cleary @ $3.95, Greg Marzhew @ $2.65
