New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Newcastle are defying the injury odds to arrive in Week 2 of the 2026 NRL Finals. 

Dylan Lucas and Dylan Brown were considerable absences to overcome throughout the regular season but to win without both starting props last week was an immense feat. Trey Mooney and Jacob Saifiti have both been Newcastle’s best at different times this year and the Knights impressed to do enough without them v South Sydney on Friday night. 

It’s a different story here though.   

Where Souths rank only fairly in yardage this year, the New Zealand Warriors have owned the middle-third for the best part of the regular season. Even in a shock loss to Redcliffe last week, the Wahs pack performed better in yardage and post-contact and profile well to do the same here. 

Newcastle will look to shift the ball out of the backfield and attack from their side of halfway as they have done all season. Their ability to put Kalyn Ponga into positive situations on the edges can cause New Zealand some issues but overall it feels like the Wahs can bash and bully their way to a win here. 

Taine Tuaapiki played out a career game against the Dolphins and can expect plenty of defensive attention here as a result. While the Knights fly from the outside-in to protect their edges though, I think the Wahs might have some joy closer to the ruck through Wayde Egan or Erin Clark. 

Egan is flying under the radar as one of the most influential players still alive in this finals series.  

His ability to create half-spaces for his forwards plays a huge part in New Zealand’s dominance around the ruck, while his involvements in attack – even if just for half a second before passing – are often crucial for any scoring action out wide.   

When the Wahs set up on Newcastle’s line this weekend, watch the subtle movements Egan takes from behind the ruck once he scoops the ball; where he looks, where he points, how late he releases the pass before contact and how clean the ball travels through the air.  

The flow-on effect of Egan’s subtleties is best seen in the defensive line. The A, B, C and even D-defenders sink in to protect their inside shoulders which inevitably leaves spaces a little wider – often around the three-man (the defending half). 

Erin Clark has relished attacking these spaces all season (six tries, six assists) and profiles as a point of difference for New Zealand this weekend. Equally capable of barging through himself as he is tipping a teammate off his hip, I won’t be surprised to see Clark on the highlights reel here. 

Anytime Tryscorer: James Fisher-Harris @ $8.50, Erin Clark @ $6.60, Kalyn Ponga @ $3.20, Bradman Best @ $3.60