There’s something strange happening in Fremantle.
With the new rule changes, footy is having a Woodstock season. It’s all free love and forward handballs baby.
We saw it on Thursday night with Hawthorn, for example. The Hawks are a run and gun team but under Sam Mitchell they’ve historically relied on long wide exits from defence by foot, then short, sharp and aggressive kicking to move the ball down the ground.
Everybody’s doing it! And it’s working!
Except for the best team in it?
Fremantle has won 11 in a row, including wins over those very same Hawks, Melbourne, the Bulldogs, and most recently Brisbane. They’ve done this while sitting middle of the pack in just about every with-ball stat, including 9th in handball metres gained but first in every defensive stat including points against.
Everyone’s smoking weed for their creative process while Freo’s eating meat and potatoes and drinking Boags every night, yet somehow they’re the ones making “Hotel California” every week.
What is going on?
The answer is pretty simple, but it speaks to Justin Longmuir’s ability to mesh his own defensive priorities with the overwhelming cadre of attacking talent he has on the list.
You have to start your answer with the Fremantle defence, which is the best in the AFL for points against, scores against per inside 50, scores from turnover, stoppage, defensive half, and forward half.
Second in most of those stats is Sydney, but in truth I think Sydney’s defensive numbers are fake. Sydney’s defence is whole of ground and completely ballistic in a way that Fremantle’s isn’t, and that ballistic atmosphere greatly impacts the way that Sydney opponents generally enter their 50. To underscore the point, Sydney is second in footy in overall pressure acts. Fremantle is 17th.
Instead, Fremantle has winners behind the ball. They’re obviously led by Alex Pearce, who is among the best players in footy at reading when he needs to attack a game to change his side’s comportment and when he can sit back and defend. However, alongside him guys like Brennan Cox, Judd McVee, Heath Chapman, and even sometimes Luke Ryan give them a varied collection of defenders that ably support each other and snuff out opposition attacks, even when they’re isolated.
Fremantle know they are elite behind the ball and they play to that strength. They invariably exit defence long and wide to either Josh Treacy or Luke Jackson, they don’t play fast, and they don’t take risks…right up until they have to or they sniff out an opportunity to do it.
Typically, I would hate that. I just don’t think it works in the modern game which now requires an attacking mindset. A well-coached game now isn’t a Ross Lyon in 2010 special anymore. Now, it’s an attacking and fast-moving game that gets easy goals. Fremantle is the exception to that because of how many attacking stars they have, and how good they are sniffing the opportunity to attack.
In a sense, they’re a cousin of Brisbane over the last few years where the way to play is only enabled by the amount of talent on the field. Nobody can kick and control games like Brisbane can because nobody has the kickers on the list to do it. In the same way, Fremantle’s defensive posture is only acceptable because of how good they are at putting the hammer down.
They’re the exception that proves the rule, and it’s typically exceptions that build something special.
Each of Shai Bolton, Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Andy Brayshaw would have the keys to pretty much any other midfield in the AFL. Reid, Bolton, and Young can also be lethal inside 50 players, all of whom are involved in over a quarter of Fremantle’s total scores.
Then, they kick to the best-balanced forward line in the league. They have the hulking, dominant, high-intensity target in Josh Treacy, the movement forward who gave Brisbane fits last week in Jai Amiss, and the hybrid in Patrick Voss.
Fremantle’s peacetime is impossible to penetrate, and their shift into wartime is impossible to keep up with.
Sometimes they shift into a wartime gear in game because they sniff an opportunity for a kill, but generally they will be conservative until they have to be. Against Brisbane last week, for example, they didn’t have to shift out of second gear but other times on this run they have.
It all comes together to artificially deflate their offensive numbers because of their general posture. If I could isolate attacking numbers just to must have situations, I bet they’d be near the top of the league.
Armies don’t deploy their best fighters all the time and modern warfare is about targeting. Fremantle is the best in football at picking their spots and capitalising on weakness. For that, they have to be premiership favourites.