Melbourne Cup 2026 Betting Tips, Predictions & Favourites

I’m normally skeptical to put the favourite in Melbourne Cup betting on top, but geez, POINT OF LAW (9) impressed in his Australian race debut and surely, he’ll only present fitter and stronger for the run.

The punters’ pick hasn’t saluted in the great race since Fiorente ($7 in 2013), but this lightly raced Maher import ticks plenty of boxes to break the drought.

The progressive four-year-old Frankel entire charged up the markets with a powerhouse victory in the Ladbrokes Geelong Cup and is now chasing a double not done since Dunaden in 2011.

Drawn wide, he sat outside the frontrunner before giving a beautiful kick on the straight and racing away for a half-length win over Small Fry and showing plenty of guts.

The ratings experts loved the performance, and so did I.

Ethan Brown sticks aboard for his second Melbourne Cup ride following a game third on Middle Earth last year and, even with the penalty, his mount is on lovely 53kg light weight coming back 2kg from that he carried last start.

These younger European’s have a terrific strike-rate in the Melbourne Cup. Think: Rekindling (1st, 2017), Cross Counter (1st, 2018), Il Paradiso (3rd, 2019) and Tiger Moth (2nd, 2020). That’s some serious form to consider.

He’s had the least experience of any of this year’s contenders with Tuesday marking just his sixth career start but he’s on the up-and-up, and what he did back in Europe when King Charles had him was good enough for this.

Ran fourth at Royal Ascot over 2,846 metres and won the Bahrain Trophy (2,615m) at Newmarket, so the class is there.

A few have a little query over him running out the 3200m, but he is bred to get it and has a terrific staying pedigree so I’m not worried.

Wouldn’t want too much rain to fall before Cup Day as he’ll be best on dry ground, but either way, that perfect midfield gate nine draw and all of the above have him on top for mine.

We have eight international raiders in the Cup field for 2026, and one that has flown a little under the radar that can run a good race is HOPEWELL ROCK (15) for British horseman George Boughey who gets his first shot at the race.

Plenty has been said on the Irish visitors, but this New Bay gelding has been targeting the two-mile feature a long time out and will be ready to go when the gates rise.

Beat Small Fry, the subsequent Geelong Cup runner-up, over 2816m at Goodwood back in August carting a huge weight (61kg) to an eye-catching three-quarter length victory to put the Melbourne Cup on his radar.

Went on to finish runner-up in the Ebor at York by a nostril-flare with 60.5kg at his latest on August 22 and that’s a form line we’ve seen stack up beautifully down under over the years.

Considering jockey Callum Rodriguez dropped the whip inside the final furlong in the Ebor, there’s every chance the result could have been reversed, and Hopewell Rock would have collected the ballot free ride into the Melbourne Cup.

Will be absolutely airborne for the flying young Zac Lloyd who himself is in career-best form back to 54.5kg so is right in this weight-wise.

Races fresh off a lengthy let-up so there are a couple of questions around his fitness and acclimatisation, but I think he’ll get the distance and with a previous Aussie start on the CV we likely wouldn’t be getting the double figure odds.

If the rain comes, he’ll be an even better hope.

Definite each-way chance.

TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (18) is the only Cup runner alongside the favourite under $10 for the win currently, but he has eased out somewhat to around $8 so there’s still value.

Barrier 18 didn’t do his Melbourne Cup odds any favours, but with one of the best in the business James McDonald booked for the ride I don’t think we need to stress over the starting position too much.

Verry Elleegant broke the barrier 18 hoodoo with her 2021 victory and guess who rode her? J-Mac of course! I do love a little omen form fact like that.

What else do I love? The quality of racing this guy has done back home.

The Churchill gelding was terrific carting 62kg to a commanding last-to-first Group 2 Curragh Cup victory over 2816m back in July and was last seen running fourth with merit in the Group 1 Irish St Leger over the same distance in mid-September behind the very good galloper Scandinavia.

One of the few proven two-milers lining-up on Tuesday and is more than capable of carrying his 57kg allocation.

He’ll get back from the gate and, as we saw in the Curragh Cup, he’s got the blistering turn of foot to close any gap.

Both of O’Brien’s previous Melbourne Cup winners O’Brien’s Melbourne Cup winners – Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020) – also won the Curragh Cup their respective years which adds confidence.

If travelling to Melbourne hasn’t taken the shine off him, and the ground stays in the Good range, he can bolt past them the closing stages.

There are a logjam of longer priced Cup chances around that $23 – $34 mark in the markets that absolutely can outrun their price, but for this year’s best Melbourne Cup roughie I’ve landed on ZAKOUMA (10) for Grahame Begg and the ‘Wizard of the West’ Willie Pike who is enjoying the spring carnival of his life.

This Crowded House six-year-old is still pretty sparingly raced for his age with Tuesday his 19th career start and he returns to HQ fifth-up and fit chasing his first win of season.

Got his early ticked via a Andrew Ramsden win here over 2800m back in mid-May carrying 58.5kg to a three-quarter length win over Pounding making up stacks of late ground and giving every indication he’ll get Tuesday’s 3200m trip.

The weight he carries for this acid test is a postage-stamp 52kg and that alone keeps him more firmly in contention than the price suggests.

Fresh back in late August he ran a credible fifth in the Listed Heatherlie at Caulfield from a wide gate over an unsuitably short 1700m, and that race was won by our subsequent Caulfield Cup champ Kingswood, so already there’s a promising form line to follow.

Sixth again in the Naturalism only 1.66 lengths off Zahrann in a race Saint George finished 3rd in. Again, not too shabby form-wise right?

Fifth in the Herbert Power building well before a Crystal Mile flop to cross dead last to Surfin’ Bird.

Should we be worried about that? Absolutely not. Midfield on the turn he dropped right out but it was really only meant to be a fitness hit-out to keep him ticking over as we get back up to his right distance. Look it as a jumpout and nothing more.

Pike is flying after his Cox Plate victory, and what a story to see Begg run in the money with his first ever Melbourne Cup runner.

One of the feel-good hopefuls, and definitely not without claims!

One international Cup raider that could be flying under the radar for exotics players is SONS AND LOVERS (3) from the powerhouse Joseph O’Brien stable.

This year’s topweight has a serious staying CV, highlighted by victories in both the Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil over 2800m in France and the Red Sea Turf Handicap over 3000m in Saudi Arabia earlier this year.

That’s proper staying form and exactly the type of profile that demands respect in a Melbourne Cup.

Now, carrying 57.5kg isn’t ideal. No international has it easy under that sort of weight, and his only previous crack at 3200m didn’t result in a placing. But context matters. This bloke has spent his career taking on quality opposition across Europe and the Middle East and was last seen running a brave second with a whopping 63.5kg on his back in Ireland.

The big tick? Barrier three. He should enjoy a dream run from the inside draw and Dylan Browne McMonagle inherits a live chance after originally being booked for a different runner.

O’Brien knows exactly what it takes to win this race, and with Sons And Lovers boasting class, stamina and a sharp turn of foot, he looks the type who can work himself into the finish.

At around the $20 mark, he appeals as a genuine Top 6 chance and wouldn’t shock if he snuck into the placings.

If you’re looking for a local that can sneak into the finish at a price, SHOCKLETZ (17) is the one for mine.

The Maher-trained mare has been aimed at the Melbourne Cup for months and arrives right on song.

Her Archer Stakes victory at Flemington secured her place in the field, and her subsequent runs have only strengthened her credentials. She hit the line strongly in the Herbert Power before a terrific runner-up finish in the Tesio Stakes, suggesting she’s ready to peak on Cup Day.

What really catches the eye is the weight. She gets in with just 51kg, which is a massive advantage in a race where every kilogram counts. Add to that her outstanding Flemington record of three wins and two placings from nine starts, and there’s plenty to like.

Being a daughter of 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking, there’s also every chance she’ll relish the step up in trip, even though the two miles remains the big query. That’s the gamble punters have to take.

Barrier 17 isn’t ideal, but she’ll likely settle midfield and look to unleash late, while Harry Coffey knows her inside out having partnered her to six wins.

She’s not the finished product yet, which is exactly what makes her dangerous. If she stays the 3200m, Shockletz looks one of the better lightweight chances in the race and appeals as a genuine Top 6 contender with upside to run even better.

If you’re building out some exotic bets on the Cup, SOUL OF SPAIN (5) is one to consider.

The Waller-trained import hasn’t won for a while, but he’s one of the few runners in this year’s field with proven two-mile credentials, producing a terrific runner-up finish in the Sydney Cup (3200m) earlier this year. In a race where so many still need to answer the distance question, that’s a big tick.

His recent form doesn’t leap off the page with a seventh in The Metropolitan and an eighth in the Caulfield Cup, but there was more merit to that latest run than it appears on paper after he was forced to make an early move in a slowly run race and still boxed on honestly to the line.

There are a few things working in his favour on Tuesday. He gets a lovely run from barrier five, carries a manageable 54.5kg, reunites with Tommy Berry, and is trained by the man who knows a thing or two about preparing stayers for the big spring features.

At around the $30+ quote he doesn’t look quite good enough to win, but he doesn’t need to. If he reproduces his Sydney Cup form and gets the right run in transit, Soul Of Spain is more than capable of sneaking into the back end of the wider exotics.

Few horses head into the Melbourne Cup with more momentum than SO YOU ARE (7), and while the two miles remains the big question mark, I wouldn’t be leaving him out of the wider exotics.

The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding has won his past four starts on the bounce, including the ATC St Leger, Colin Stephen Quality, Tattersall’s Cup, and most recently the Bendigo Cup, forcing his way into the Melbourne Cup field the hard way. You simply can’t knock his form, toughness, or fitness.

What I really like is that he’s an old-school staying type. He’s had a busy preparation, kept improving as the distances have increased, and looks to have thrived on racing. It almost feels like a throwback to how the old Cups horses were trained.

The son of So You Think gets a lovely run from barrier seven, carries just 54kg, and retains the services of Rachel King, who knows exactly how to ride him. Expect him to settle up on the speed and give a huge sight.

Of course, there are risks. He’s never raced over 3200m and hasn’t been taking on the elite European stayers all spring. But when a horse keeps winning, there comes a point where you stop looking for reasons to dismiss them.

I’m not convinced he wins, but I am convinced he’s tougher than his odds suggest.

A horse to round out your Top 10 Melbourne Cup bets, JUJA KIBO (14) has appeal at the right price.

Another from the powerful Maher contingent, he comes into the race in arguably the best form of any local stayer, having put together back-to-back Group 2 wins in The Metropolitan and the Moonee Valley Cup this spring. Both victories showcased his trademark finishing burst and confirmed he’s thriving at exactly the right time of year.

What I like most is that he’s still on the way up. His previous crack at 3200m in the Sydney Cup didn’t amount to much, but he’s a far more seasoned and complete horse now than he was earlier in the year. Sometimes stayers just need time, and his recent performances suggest everything has clicked into place.

The 55kg looks workable, Maher’s stable is absolutely flying, and regular rider Sam Clipperton has built a strong association with the horse during this campaign. If they roll along at a genuine tempo, Juja Kibo should be one of those charging home strongest late.

Barrier 14 isn’t perfect and the two-mile trip remains the lingering query, which is why I find it hard to have him in the very top bracket of chances. But equally, his recent form is far too good to ignore.

I can see others beating him home, but I can also see him plugging away into the first half-dozen and certainly the Top 10.