Friday (7:50pm) – Newcastle Knights @ South Sydney Rabbitohs
Deciding Factors
Entering the finals with a near-full strength squad after three seasons of injury hell is a big factor for this unlikely South Sydney squad. The healthiest team often wins the competition and the Rabbitohs are about as healthy as they’ve been since a Preliminary Final loss to Penrith in 2022.
After playing out of position and adapting on the run throughout the 2026 NRL regular season, the Rabbitohs now field a group of players who all know their role within the team.
A forward pack that relishes the repeatable actions is well complemented by the dynamic, unpredictable involvements of David Fifita or Cam Murray in attack. Latrell Mitchell and Jye Gray do similar things in the backline while Cody Walker – at the ripe old age of 36 – holds the keys to this lethal Rabbitohs attack and to their 2026 Premiership hopes.
Comfortable in the grind and with points-of-difference in all channels across the field, South Sydney can play patient and trust that the points will come.
For Newcastle, the long kicking games of Kalyn Ponga and Sandon Smith in yardage can go some ways to offsetting the absence of Jacob Saifiti, Trey Mooney and Dylan Lucas in the forward rotation.
If there’s one knock on South Sydney, it’s their ability to carry the ball out of their own end and earn the field position they need to score points. Between a productive back five and a good general play kicking game, Newcastle profile well to make the Bunnies work for their chances in attack here.
Final Verdict
It’s South Sydney with all the momentum right now and I like my Bunnies to execute on their first Finals chance in five years.
Newcastle have done a tremendous job to cover the losses of Dylan’s Lucas & Brown respectively, but the absence of Saifiti & Mooney in this one might just prove the final straw.
Saturday (4:05pm) – Dolphins @ New Zealand Warriors
Deciding Factors
New Zealand’s first-choice halves (can we call them that now?) made a timely return to first-grade last week, with Te Maire Martin in particular playing a leading role in a few slick scoring actions.
The Warriors winning systems were on full display as Martin played short to both backrowers for early tries on either edge through Adam Pompey & Taine Tuaupiki.
Slotting straight back into an unfamiliar lineup, Martin was set up for success by the synchronicity of the Warriors attack; support players perfectly timing their movements to give Martin the looks he was after.
The speed of the play-the-ball, the service from dummy-half, the timing of the lead runners and the movements of a fanning backline all helped Martin to slow down, square up, sell the dummy out the back and still have time to tip short for his backrower into space.
It’s these repeatable actions that make New Zealand such a good bet in Finals footy. Their defence & yardage games are both proven under pressure and should have the Warriors in a position to win it late. From there, I like the accumulative influence of Erin Clark, Wayde Egan and Martin through the middle-third to create enough chances in attack.
In a complete contrast of styles, the Dolphins will try to win this with firepower.
They enjoy a similar impact from their bench players as New Zealand and will give themselves every chance of matching the Wahs in yardage. From there, Isaiya Katoa can play conductor for an embarrassment of attacking riches in the backline.
Final Verdict
I like the Dolphins to execute on a few highlight reel moments but it’s the Warriors with the better habits and the home ground advantage here.
Their recent defensive form is a concern but even in a shoot-out against a side like Redcliffe, I like New Zealand to bank this one and earn the week off.
Saturday (7:50pm) – North Queensland Cowboys @ Cronulla Sharks
Deciding Factors
Canberra’s highlight reel from NRL Round 27 will show Xavier Savage burning past the Cowboys left edge defence but in reality, the damage had already been done.
North Queensland’s inability to slow the ruck and buy their edges time to check, release and slide with the ball is a concern here given that’s exactly where Blayke Brailey does his best work. Now with Braydon Trindall back to add polish to their end of sets, we can expect to see the best of Brailey and this monster Sharks pack.
If Brailey is allowed to get out from behind a quick ruck and fold the Cowboys edges in towards the ball (as Owen Pattie did last week), the Sharks will inevitably find points out wide. Their slingshot attack through both halves and Will Kennedy profiles well for try scoring regular Sione Katoa on the right wing, while the spaces between Tom’s Dearden & Chester can also be a spot on the left.
Trindall does a wonderful job of straightening up the attack for a fanning Sharks backline. While the Cowboys edge defenders worry about all that movement out the back, I think Teig Wilton can enjoy a few looks running short off Trindall’s hip.
Final Verdict
Cronulla hit a few hurdles on their run into the finals but have the personnel in key positions and the attacking systems to turn that form around now.
This isn’t the same Sharks attack that has historically struggled in the post-season and with Trindall back in the driver’s seat, Cronulla can delay Mad Monday for at least another week.
Sunday (4:05pm) – Sydney Roosters @ Penrith Panthers
Deciding Factors
The lead up will focus on Sam Walker’s absence but a halves pairing of Daly Cherry-Evans and Hugo Savalo gives Easts two sound defenders and two genuine kickers to end their sets.
With Finals games so often a battle of attrition, it could end up an unlikely winning combination for a Roosters side missing their star halfback at the wrong time of the year. If Easts pack and backline can remain productive in yardage as they’ve done all season, Savalo and Cherry-Evans can play the long game and slowly turn the screws with their boots.
While historically a risk-taking side, the Roosters have been happy to win games ugly or boring at different times this year. The aerial threats of Daniel Tupou and Mark Nawaqanitawase on either edge are key to this; if Easts are in the fight with 10 to go, expect them to tighten around the posts before kicking to the corners.
With the most big-game experience of any rival in this Finals series (bar maybe Penrith), the Roosters profile well to match the Panthers at their own game and set this one up early to win it late.
Penrith will look to do the same. They relish the grind more than anyone and play a low-risk, high-percentage style of football that is purpose built for the post-season.
Final Verdict
It feels foolish to tip against what is once again the best defensive system in the NRL.
That being said, there are more chinks in this Panthers armour than in previous years and Cherry-Evans might just be the man to expose them…