Six teams remain in the hunt for the 2026 AFL Premiership as we look ahead to a pair of mouth-watering Semi-Finals matchups this weekend.
We’re back to Perth on Friday night with the Dockers looking to prove their doubters wrong against the Cats, while the Lions have their own point to prove at the Gabba on Saturday night in what could be Taylor Walker’s final game for the Adelaide Crows.
It’s win or go home for all four sides, and our thoughts, analysis, and best value betting plays ahead of the Semi-Finals can be found below!
Wharfie Time might be the furthest thing on anyone’s minds on Friday night with the Dockers staring down the reality of a straight set’s finals exit.
Sam Mitchell coached one of the games of the season last week in Hawthorn’s stunning 32-point Qualifying Final upset, brandishing a physical game of footy that disrupsted Freo’s typically methodical attack.
The Dockers were on the back foot early and showed little to no signs of ever coming back, which doesn’t bode well against a battle-tested Geelong outfit that received the very best of Patrick Dangerfield in last week’s victory over Carlton.
To be fair, the Cats were far from their best in the first half, but they now head to Perth knowing all the pressure is squarely on the home side – even if the last two encounters between this pair have been tight.
In Round 1, the Dockers blew a healthy lead at the Cattery and fell 10 points short, only to enact revenge in Round 15 when they ran out nine-point winners at home.
In that last meeting, Freo controlled possession and did a great job limiting the Cats inside 50 entries, but if Geelong – a Top 5 tackling outfit all season – can apply similar pressure in the early stages to what Hawthorn did, this could become a very nervy night for the minor premiers.
Prediction: Geelong to Cover (+9.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.85
Player Pick: Patrick Voss 2+ Goals @ $1.90
Was it just an off night? Or is the Brisbane dynasty done?
Further selection headaches await Chris Fagan after his side suffered more than just a reality check against the undermanned Swans last week, falling 53-points short in one of the biggest upsets of the season.
Fagan said post-game that his team severely underestimated Sydney’s depth, but perhaps more alarming was the fact Brisbane’s defenders gave up multiple goals to Logan McDonald, Tom Papley, and Charlie Curnow.
A similar test awaits this week with the in-form Taylor Walker and Izak Rankine patrolling the Adelaide forward line. The Crows made short work of a tiresome Bulldogs outfit last week and look every bit a Grand Final dark horse with captain Jordan Dawson leading the way.
You have to rewind all the way back to 2018 to find Adelaide’s last win at the Gabba over Brisbane, but just like the Swans, this experienced Crows side isn’t one the Lions can afford to take lightly.
In saying that, Oscar Allen looked great at times in the loss to Sydney, while a blowout loss in the first round might just be the wake-up call the Lions needed to get their act together.
Losing back to back games hasn’t been a recurring theme during the Fagan era, but the Lions do need to rediscover some of their flare through the midfield with Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale coming off a quiet performance.
Brisbane has been up and down all year and it’s fair to wonder if they still have the hunger to win a third consecutive flag. But with the runs on the board and Adelaide always a question mark away from home, it’s easier to bet on the Lions bouncing back to their best, than any kind of Crows upset.
Prediction: Lions to Cover (-19.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Lions 40+ @ $3.05
Player Pick: Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals @ $1.83