Three Things you Can Trust Already in 2025

Three Things you Can Trust Already in 2025

GuyWhoLikesSport GuyWhoLikesSport

At this point last season, Fremantle was second and Melbourne was third on the ladder, while Brisbane and Hawthorn were 14th and 17th.

A lot can change in a season.

Teams that are terrible now will probably be better later in the season, and vice versa (not Carlton, though).

With that said, through three rounds, there are three things that you can absolutely trust as we move into the mid-part of the season.

1. Sam Darcy is the Number 1 Trade Asset

Every season I write a trade value column.

Last year I had Sam Darcy at #6.

Looking back on that is like getting those reminders of what you did 8 years ago today on Facebook: embarrassing.

Darcy will almost definitely be the number 1 trade asset in footy when I write the column again in October.

Darcy is long and tall, using his height to lead footy in contested marks this season.

Heā€™s also mean in a way that players built like him often arenā€™t. Heā€™s like if Inspector Gadget wanted to f**k you up.

Whatā€™s most impressive, however, is how good he is below his knees, his ball use with both legs and his ability to get involved in scoring chains.

As a forward/ruck, Darcy has been involved in 37% of his teamā€™s scores. Among all key forwards and ruckmen who have played at least two games, that leads the AFL.

Heā€™s the AFLā€™s Victor Wembanyama ā€“ small guy skills in a big guy body with an attitude to boot.

2. Defensive transition is gaining on front half turnover as a way to score

Front half turnover has been the best way to score in footy for the last 8-10 years, and it still is.

However, the back-half game is gaining on it.

In 2022, back half scoring accounted for an average of 30 points and front half an average of 41.

Since then, scoring from the back-half has steadily increased every year, with back half scoring this year peaking at 36ppg and front half scoring at about 39ppg.

You can feel that as you watch the games. Teams are empowering their best kickers ā€“ Mass Dā€™Ambrosio and Nas Wanganeen-Milera spring to mind – to take on tough kicks out of defence to try and unlock the front-half press.

Because a strong front-half game requires you to defend so high up the field, if you can hit that release kick it gives you a clear avenue to goal over the back of defences and it pushes the outside runners to take aggressive patterns.

Teams are sick of being stuck in defensive 50 and would rather die trying to get it out of their back line aggressively and maybe get an easy goal out of it instead of kicking it up the line and hoping their contested players can win.

This is emblematic of a wider shift in the last 6 months away from crash and bash footy and toward outside run that has left Carlton looking terrible and Hawthorn on top of the ladder.

Footy has moved into its Goodfellas helicopter sequence era. Everything is fast, aggressive, and ballistic. Defensive transition is a key part of it.

3. Adelaideā€™s forward line is a problem

I recognise that Iā€™m not breaking news here, but they are good.

Adelaide is kicking a goal on 36% of their inside 50 entries.

That would be the best rate since 2012 by any team. The second-best rate was the 2014 Hawks at 30.2%. Nobody else was in the 30s.

That rate is unsustainable, but the way theyā€™re playing isnā€™t. The Crows are an elite kick/mark side coming out of the back half, sitting second in the league in marks.

As it comes out of defence, one of the high half-forwards – often Ben Keays – will present and get the ball on defensive wing. Then one of the star key forwards ā€“ Thilthorpe, Fogarty, or Walker ā€“ will hit up about 70m from goal.

What invariably happens then is that key forward will wheel and go inside 50 to whichever key stayed home. That key will take a mark and kick a goal and again it starts.

It feels inevitable.

What I love is the speed they put on the game. Even though they take a lot of marks, theyā€™re not slow with the ball like Melbourne are when they try and get into a ball control game.

Melbourne, with their slow ball movement and average forwards, are constantly pulling bags that say ā€œdead dove, do not eatā€ from the fridge and being surprised by whatā€™s in it as they fail to capitalise on another entry.

Adelaide will control the ball, but not at the expense of trying to get their forwards in advantageous situations. Itā€™s floor raising, and the ceiling is high with players this good.

You add the keys to Rankine, Rachele, Curtin, Keays, and even Draper and you have a forward line that is the envy of the competition.

 

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