GuyWhoLikesSport’s Very Original AFL Trade Value Column – Part II

GuyWhoLikesSport’s Very Original AFL Trade Value Column – Part II

Continuing on from Part 1.

In light of this exciting time, it’s time for the AFL Trade Value Column.

This is a Bill Simmons NBA column that I am blatantly stealing and applying to the AFL.

The idea of the gimmick is a simple one – would a team trade player X for player Y? If yes, then that player has more trade value. If no, then the player has less.

That’s it.

This game occurs in a vacuum where players can’t tell teams “I want to be traded but only to this club” but rather it works on a value basis.

Midfielders that aren’t Tom Mitchell

14. Zak Butters (24, 2 years left)
13. Noah Anderson (23, 3 years left)
12. Tom Green (23, 3 years left)
11. Caleb Serong (23, 3 years left)

I’m calling this list of guys a group of midfield centric game-wreckers.

All are young, mostly midfield-types who are perfectly not Tom Mitchell.

All of them averaged over 27 disposals a game, but they weren’t Mitchell style wasted possessions.

All were over 10 contested possessions a game, 10 handball receives a game, and 400 metres gained.

All but Tom Green were involved in at least a quarter of their team’s scores and kicked a goal every other game (Green was involved in 24% of scores and kicked a goal in every 0.4 games).

These aren’t your prototypical Dustin Martin style forward half “midfielders”, but they are the prototype of the inside/out game wrecker that modern mids need to be.

“We need the father/son rights of the next Daicos”

10. Chad Warner (23, 1 year left)
9. Izak Rankine (24, 3 years left)
8. Hayden Young (23, 3 years left)

If the above guys are more mid than forward, these guys are more forward than mid.

These guys are the new Dustin Martin except, like movie stars, Dustin Martin of today is way skinnier and less cool than the original Dustin Martin.

It’s like Brad Pitt vs Tim Chalamet.

The old guy is undeniably cooler, but the new guy is pretty good too.

Thank Christ for Glenn Powell.

Chad Warner is the best player on the list for my money and he had the best year, kicking 35 goals which was most for any midfielder in footy. But his contract is up at the end of 2025 and that depresses his value in this game.

Hayden Young, who kicked 13 goals, had the fewest of the list but had the most assists of any midfielder who played more than 20 games and he had the highest score involvement percentage of the three in this tier with a little over 30%.

He’s only done it at this level for one year, but he was so good I think he’s here to stay.

Rankine is listed as a forward by WheeloRatings but he attended 10 centre bounces per game and had about 4 clearances, which makes him a mid/forward to me.

Of this tier, Rankine was the only one under 20 disposals but had the highest goal per game average at 1.9. Add that to an assist per game and a 27% score involvement rate and you have yourself a bona fide asset.

Key Forwards of present and future

7. Charlie Curnow (27, 4 years left)
6. Sam Darcy (21,1 year left)

Remember Gale with the coffee and the chemistry wanking in Breaking Bad?

That was the last, clearest, example of the present and the future that I saw on my television screen up until Curnow and Darcy shared a field in Round 18.

Curnow kicked three and Darcy just one in what was a big win for the Bulldogs.

Curnow, who in a down year hobbled by injuries, still kicked 57 goals in what felt like 15 combined minutes of football.

His season was like one long Stuart Dew in the 2008 Grand Final homage, he was making cameos left and right.

And they’re just as effective as Matt Damon showing up in 30 Rock.

But if Curnow is the present, Darcy is the future.

He’s big and long, with enormous arms that are frankly impossible to not to chop. He’s a brilliant field kick and a great athlete who also has a nose for the goal, kicking 38 in the first season of his career where he played more than 20 games while generating 3.5 shots per game.

In Charlie Curnow’s first meaningful year he kicked 20 goals from 1.7 shots per game. It took Curnow until year seven to kick more than 38 goals.

Darcy is stiff not to be a tier higher.

The cast of 40-Year-Old Virgin

5. Jason Horne-Francis (21, 4 years left)
4. Will Ashcroft (20, 2 years left)
3. Harley Reid (19, 2 years left)
2. Harry Sheezel (20, 6 years left)
1. Nick Daicos (21, 5 years left)

The 40-Year-Old-Virgin has the best “we’re about to get enormous” cast since The Godfather.

There was Steve Carrell just before The Office, but then you also had at the time relative unknowns like Paul Rudd, Seth Rogen, Elizabeth Banks, Kat Dennings, Jonah Hill, Mindy Kalling, and even Kevin Hart, plus it was written and directed by Judd Apatow.

Those names, in some way, shape, or form, have defined comedy for the last 20 years.

That’s what we have with this top tier. A group of players set to define footy for the next decade.

Daicos, to me, is clearly number 1.

Only Daicos and Marcus Bontempelli averaged over 13 contested possessions and kicked 20 or more goals.

But the rest, all under 21, are right there with Daicos as the future of the competition.

I only have Sheezel ahead of Reid and Ashcroft because of the long-term contract, but if I was ranking players I would probably have to have Ashcroft at number two given his Grand Final.

Last year’s list had Daicos at number 1 by a street, then Bontempelli, Petracca and De Goey as older stagers in their primes.

Daicos was waiting for some help from the younger brigade. This year he got it.

We are ready for the future of superstars.

Full list

1. Nick Daicos (21, 5 years left)

2. Harry Sheezel (20, 6 years left)

3. Harley Reid (19, 2 years left)

4. Will Ashcroft (20, 2 years left)

5. Jason Horne-Francis (21, 4 years left)

6. Sam Darcy (21,1 year left)

7. Charlie Curnow (27, 4 years left)

8. Izak Rankine (24, 3 years left)

9. Hayden Young (23, 3 years left)

10. Chad Warner (23, 1 year left)

11. Caleb Serong (23, 3 years left)

12. Noah Anderson (23, 3 years left)

13. Tom Green (23, 3 years left)

14. Zak Butters (24, 2 years left)

 

15. Sam Taylor (25, 8 years left)

16. Mac Andrew (21, 6 years left)

17. Harris Andrews (28, 5 years left)

18. Jacob Weitering (27, 1 year left)

19. James Sicily (29, 3 years left)

20. Josh Treacy (22, 6 years left)

21. Ben King (24, 2 years left)

22. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (22, 2 years left)

23. Jake Waterman (26, 6 years left)

24. Marcus Bontempelli (29, 1 year left)

25. Isaac Heeney (28, 4 years left)

26. Patrick Cripps (29, 2 years left)

27. Lachie Neale (31, 2 years left)