Ranking the teams most likely to win the premiership

Ranking the teams most likely to win the premiership

GuyWhoLikesSport

Yes, I know that it’s too early.

No, I don’t think that I will write these rankings in stone like I’m Moses writing the 10 commandments.

Yes, I know things change.

No, I don’t hate your team.

Unless your team is Carlton, but that’s a me problem, not a you problem.

Having said all of that, every team has played about 7 games and it seems a good time to rank the teams currently in the top-8 based on who is the likeliest, in my view, to take home the premiership cup.

That’s right! I’m only ranking the teams that currently reside in the top-8.

This is not a ranking of who is the best now, but a ranking of who I think will be there at the pointy end of the season, of the teams that are currently in the 8.

Collingwood fans, come over here.

You people are like Livia Soprano with the way that you make everything about yourself.

If I was a TikTok therapist, also known as a women in her mid-late 20s, I might diagnose you lot as narcissists.

Maybe even borderline, but that would just be for kicks and they seem to throw that in everywhere.

You’re currently ninth, and therefore will not be ranked.

It’s not about you, it’s about the fact that you have fewer points than Fremantle at this juncture.

Onto the rankings.

1. Geelong Cats

I can’t believe this.

You have got to be joking me.

There was a run there where I kind of hated the monotonous success of Geelong under Chris Scott, but I’m past that point now.

My feelings toward Geelong are perfectly encapsulated by the way people have swung around time and again on Anne Hathaway.

I loved them on the way up, hated the continued success and as the success continued to continue, I have no choice but to respect and like them again.

It’s like what Ben Affleck said in Gone Girl: “they disliked me, then they liked me. They hated me, and now they love me.”

That is me with Geelong.

Even with probably the least good midfield of any team listed here, Geelong are second for metres gained and third for clearances in the league.

They’re the second most efficient team in the league at turning inside 50s into goals, and the second stingiest at letting opposition teams score goals from their inside 50s.

They do everything everywhere.

Even as their superstars age, they just get new ones. The new generation of guys like Gryan Miers, Brandan Parfitt, Max Holmes, Jack Bowes, Tyson Stengle, and Sam De Koning are all 26 and under and have played between 50 and 150 games are primed to step into the roles left by the older stars who still have some juice.

I don’t know how you pick out anyone but Geelong, especially after what they did to Carlton.

2. GWS Giants

There is no team that I enjoy watching more than GWS, and they are the highest rated team in the AFL.

They have the most interesting collection of forward talent in the AFL for my money. They’re built almost like a basketball team with the different body shapes and athletic profiles of Hogan, Ricciardi, Brown, and Cadman as the frontcourt players and Greene, Daniels, and Bedford as the guard type players.

That manifests in the game’s third highest expected score.

They’re the game’s second highest scoring team from stoppage, and the highest from both turnover and defensive half transition.

What are you supposed to do with that?

They’re like every Tom Cruise character since Magnolia: the best at everything.

They’re not perfect, they they sit around the middle of the pack for most defensive metrics and do have a tendency to get too cute even when a team eventually stops their run, but those haven’t mattered so far.

3. Sydney Swans

What do you do with a team that does one thing brilliantly and the other thing terribly.

If you’re Vince Vaughn, you do one season of True Detective then wrap up trying to be a real actor and go back to talking fast in rom-coms where you’re dating women that are impossibly hotter than you.

If you’re a football team, you’re in a bit of strife.

They, like GWS, are the statistical benchmark for virtually every offensive stat.

But they have far poorer defensive personnel than GWS’ procession of stars like Buckley, Idun, and Taylor when he’s back fit.

While the defensive numbers are fairly comparable between Sydney and GWS, GWS have played a more difficult schedule overall.

4. Melbourne Demons

I wrote about Melbourne earlier this year, so I’ll keep this one relatively short.

Even though their efficiency inside 50 has dropped off slightly, they’re starting to improve in the clearance area of the game while still being the game’s stingiest defence in terms of goals and shots allowed per inside 50.

If they can continue find a way to middle it, where they keep the clearance game ticking along but return to their early season efficiency going inside 50, this is a dangerous team.

5. Carlton Blues

 

Really, the only reason Carlton are below GWS is because of last week’s game which I wrote about in-depth.

Like Melbourne, therefore, I’ll keep this relatively short.

While the Blues are excellent and are the most damaging team in football at scoring from stoppage by five points across the season, but by 14 points over the last five games and I bet even more since Marc Pittonet has returned to the team, they rank 12th in marks inside 50 per inside 50.

They don’t hit up their star forwards at all, and I worry about that method of scoring moving forward.

Granted, I’m picking flaws in Sydney Sweeney here (impossible) but this is where the Blues are now.

You need to apply greater scrutiny.

NB: The teams ranked between 2 & 5 are separated by a razor blade.

6. Port Adelaide Power

Port is a bit of a Shogun to me.

Everything on paper is awesome, so why am I feeling so flaccid about them?

(I’ve spoken to a doctor, and he says it isn’t a medical thing.)

Port is a fairly dominant territory side sitting third in metres gained differential, they’re third in stoppage differential and are clearly the best team in expected score differential.

Really, that’s a better statistical resume than both Carlton and Melbourne.

But, like everyone dealing with Yabushige, I just don’t trust them, and they proved me right against Collingwood.

They don’t have enough firepower forward of the ball and are too tall defensively to deal with teams who won’t accept hack kicks inside 50.

7. Fremantle Dockers

Conceivably, I could see the top six winning the premiership, seven and eight, I cannot..

There are two Fremantles.

The Fremantle of their first six games, where they only scored over 90 against the game’s worst teams (and Brisbane), and otherwise lived in the 60s, including against West Coast.

That team played stodgy, stolid football where they chipped the ball around and did nothing with the ball.

Against West Coast, even when they were well down in the game, they failed to take the game on.

They took what the opponent gave them, nothing more.

Then there is the Fremantle that took the game to the Bulldogs this week just gone.

They destroyed the Bulldogs at the coal face, attacked the corridor, scored heavily off turnover, and finally displayed a bit of dash on their way to scoring nearly 50 points in the first half.

This team, with its dominant midfield and cavalcade interesting players like Bailey Banfield, Travis Fredrick, and Jye Amiss around them, could be a dangerous spoiler come finals time.

But I can’t see them winning it all.

8. Essendon Bombers

I wrote about Essendon as the good-bad team a couple of weeks ago.

The draw with Collingwood reinforces that view.

While I like watching a team of exceptionally coached B+ footballers and Zach Merrett play, the list just isn’t good enough to win the premiership this season.