Early in the season, I wrote a snarky column that said Melbourne had to win the premiership.
After just over a month of football, and with a record of 4-1 that is franked by their last two wins in Adelaide over the Adelaide sides, they must be the favourites.
Melbourne has been consistently excellent since they won the 2021 premiership, but this year they’re better than they have been in that entire period.
Four wins on the trot? Yeah, good. 👍#DemonSpirit | #AFLCrowsDees pic.twitter.com/A3rGLmUy7R
— Narrm Demons (@melbournefc) April 4, 2024
For virtually every week after that 2021 premiership, Melbourne played the same game.
They were the best defensive team in footy, one of the more dominant midfields, and one of the most aimless forward lines.
Every game followed the same pattern.
Melbourne would win the ball out of the middle or off a turnover, they’d hack the ball deep to nobody with no system forward of the ball, and they’d pray they did something forward of centre.
Since 2021, Melbourne have never been worse than third for inside 50s but were a consistently inefficient team forward of centre. It reached its nadir last year where they were first for inside 50s by 2 a game, but were bottom 5 in goals per inside 50, scoring shots per inside 50 and scores per inside 50.
Well, this season, things have changed.
They’re still a dominant defence, leaking the fewest goals, inside 50s and shots in the league.
The difference is the way they’re moving the ball.
For the first time in recent memory, they have their eyes down.
They’ve always been an exceptional rebound 50 side and that, also, hasn’t changed as they sit second in the league in for rebound 50 rate.
Now they’re efficient to boot.
They’re not prioritising midfield dominance like they did so their inside 50 numbers are less gaudy, but they’re prioritising quality of entry.
The change from quality to quantity is how they are now top-6 in the league in each of goals per inside 50, scoring shots per inside 50 and scores per inside 50.
They’re like Daniel-Day Lewis going inside 50. They don’t do it often, but when they do, it works.
This tweak is how a player like Bayley Fritsch, a crafty but not necessarily dominant contest forward, can have 14 goals and average his career-best score involvements through the season’s first five games.
Bayley Fritsch marks, turns, and slots it from outside fifty 🙌
📺 Watch #AFLCrowsDees on ch. 504 or stream on Kayo: https://t.co/c5VwhmeFbG
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🔢 MATCH CENTRE https://t.co/B7UmGcjvGa pic.twitter.com/FPrjaE2RD3— Fox Footy (@FOXFOOTY) April 4, 2024
But even aside from the numbers, it’s how confident they look.
Watching them against Adelaide was like watching Ryan Gosling in Crazy Stupid Love flirt with the hot girl at the party then a 16-year-old virgin goes up and tries and flirt with the same girl.
There was a real difference in assuredness in biting off a tough kick or taking a dash through the corridor, to say nothing of the skill level and difference in physicality.
They look a totally different side, but have undergone only minor personnel tweaks.
The two biggest personnel changes are Jack Billings and Caleb Windsor.
Most St. Kilda fans that I know long pegged Billings as the kind of guy who would be a good player in a good team, but a luxury player in a bad team. Like Danny Trejo, he might make good into great, but he’ll never turn terrible into good.
That has proven true. Billings has added a touch of polish to Melbourne’s forward of centre.
Billings is only averaging about 15 disposals per game, a number that is skewed by starting as the sub in opening round. Despite that, he’s averaging about 5 score involvements per game and, despite his low number of total disposals, is involved in about 20% of Melbourne’s total scores.
He’s being asked to be a splash player and he’s belly-flopping into the pool freely.
You can see it in the way Melbourne hunt for him at around the 60-70m mark. Where once they might have bombed it and prayed Ben Brown or Jacob van Rooyen took a mark, instead they’ll find Billings and trust him to hit a target.
The other big personnel change has been the addition of Caleb Windsor. Windsor is skinny but silky and with a real work rate to boot. Through 5 games, his running power and silkiness have added an element to Melbourne that they didn’t have.
The other key thing to note is that the old guys are still alright.
After being demolished by Brodie Grundy in the Opening Round Max Gawn has played a number of John Wick games, getting revenge on everyone who wrote him off early in the season.
Max Gawn's performance against Port was exceptional, highlighted by his remarkable work rate. His ability to outwork opponent on both ends was extraordinary. @First__Use @maxygawn11 @melbournefc
Full analysis 👇🏼👇🏼 https://t.co/MrvtOg8woq pic.twitter.com/iCjysH3wsD— Jeff White (@JeffWhite34) April 2, 2024
Their lack of a backup plan behind Gawn remains a possible issue to me, but the fact that he still has the gear that he has shown is the big plus. If they can be smart with his management down the stretch, the most impactful late and big game player in recent memory should be there for the big games.
The other one that I was slightly concerned about last season was Steven May, who appeared to me to be losing a bit of a step. Well, this season he has yet to lose a single 1v1 even after recovering from a cracked rib quicker than Jason Statham recovers from a concussion and looks every bit the player he always was.
While he’s not affecting as many contests as has in the past, averaging his fewest spoils since 2013 by 1.5 per game, it appears that his role has changed as his mobility has diminished and he’s relishing it.
All of this is a credit to Goodwin, who recognised that the core of his team around Petracca, Oliver, Viney, Gawn, Lever, and May was still elite.
But his work around the margins, both in terms of the list and the game plan, has elevated a talented but flawed list over the past few years into a better-rounded, cleaner unit.
I gave him about as much chance of changing as I currently give Donald Trump, but he’s proven me wrong.
At this point in the season, even accounting for GWS and Sydney, given the Grand Final will be played at the MCG, the Dees have to be the favourites.
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