FOOTY’S SUPER SATURDAY – ALL BANGERS, ALL THE TIME.

FOOTY’S SUPER SATURDAY – ALL BANGERS, ALL THE TIME.

GuyWhoLikesSport

June 17th, 1994 is the single most famous day in sports broadcasting history.

It was the day that the OJ Simpson white bronco car chase happened (RIP to the ultimate “but fuck he could play, though” athlete in the long history of athletes committing crimes against women and basically getting away with it).

On the same date as the car chase, the following things also happened:
• Arnold Palmer was playing his final round at the US Open,
• The 1994 World Cup kicked off in Chicago,
• The New York Rangers were having a ticker tape parade on Broadway,
• Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Knicks and Rockets was on, and was being simulcast with the chase, and
• Ken Griffey tied Babe Ruth’s record for most home runs in a single MLB season.

That date, that moment in time, is so famous that ESPN made a 30 for 30 about it.

What does it have to do with footy?

Have you looked at the fixture for Saturday?

If June 17th, 1994, is number 1 then April 20th, 2024, is in the conversation for number 2.

Have a look at these games:
• Collingwood v Port at the MCG,
• Carlton v GWS at Marvel,
• Brisbane v Geelong at the Gabba, then finally
• West Coast v Fremantle at Optus.

That’s like Kendall Roy’s birthday, all bangers all the time.

To prepare you, and myself, for that feast for the eyes starting from 1:45pm on Saturday, here’s one question that I have heading into every game.

Collingwood v Port Adelaide – Can Collingwood keep up with Port’s territory game?

It’s no secret that Collingwood haven’t been quite the same side as they were last year, and nor are Port.

After playing probably the game of the regular season in Round 19 last year, it seems that Port has taken a step forward while the Pies have taken a step back.

This year Port are like the Roman Empire in 117 CE with the way that they dominate territory.

Port are third for metres gained, second for metres gained per disposal, plus first for opponent metres gained and metres gained differential.

That dominance is how they are second for inside 50 differential, first for marks inside 50 differential and first in expected score by five full points.

After a year where the Pies were second for metres gained differential and  opponent metres gained, their defensive game has slipped dramatically to the point that they now sit eighth for opponent metres gained and 12th in metres gained differential, in large part because they sit 16th for metres gained, ahead of only West Coast and North.

If the Pies can’t stem Port’s territory game, they’ll be lucky if the ball gets over half-way.

Carlton v GWS – Can GWS keep the game moving?

GWS have been so good this year.

They’re so good they’re at the point where you can almost see them cycling through gears in-game.

Against the Saints in the third quarter, St Kilda started to mount a comeback as GWS’ run and effort slowed down, and the Saints got it back to a 7-point game. Shortly thereafter, GWS put the Ferrari back into gear and screamed out to a 30-point lead by ¾ time.

I know that the Saints came back to lose by a point, I’m not saying that the gear thing always works.

The fact that they have it already is a good enough indication for me that this is an excellent football team.

But more than how good they are, it’s how watchable they are. They move the ball so brilliantly and when they’re on.

Because of that desire to keep the game moving, GWS games are 16th for total ruck contests per game.

They’re like a great white, they dread stagnation.

Carlton, on the other hand, loves it.

Their games are sixth for total ruck contests because, I think, they view their clearance and contested ball game as their strength (not that that has particularly played out as they sit 16th for total clearances).

If GWS can get the game on the outside, the Blues’ lack of leg speed will come back to bite them, and they’ll lose.

If Carlton drags GWS into the muck, it’s not out of the realm that the Blues beat them with experience.

Brisbane v Geelong – Is Brisbane back?

Mutedly, as at the day of writing, I say the answer is yes.

I’ll say it emphatically if they beat Geelong.

Brisbane’s statistical profile is still excellent this season.

They lead footy in clearances, second in inside 50s, second in forward half stoppages and third at winning them.

They also create the most forward half in intercepts of any team.

Yet, they’re seventh in expected score.

They’ve struggled a bit to capitalise on that forward half dominance and Geelong are no easy beat in any of those stats.

But if Brisbane can recreate the lethal edge that they showed against Melbourne, Brisbane’s statistical dominance will be backed up by three wins on the trot, two against premiership contenders, and one at the MCG.

At that point, it’s time for the rest of the competition to fret.

West Coast v Freo – Was last week West Coast or Richmond?

West Coast got their first win of 2024 last week over a depleted Richmond side.

But before that, they put together decent quarters or halves against each of GWS and Sydney.

After a run of decisions since 2021 that would put them on the Mt Rushmore of own goals next to Ben Roberts-Smith, Bruce Lehrmann, and Andres Escobar, could they finally be turning it around?

Harley Reid looks like an honest-to-goodness superstar.

But more than just him, West Coast are starting to build their game from the inside out sitting above the league average in both centre clearances and total clearances, a clear departure from their usual home at the bottom of virtually all statistical categories except opponent points.

Fremantle will be a good test because Freo tend to choke games and constrict ball movement, while also being an excellent clearance side.

While they themselves don’t score much, it will be a good test to see if West Coast can both stay in touch with Fremantle and break even (or win) around the middle.

 

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