What’s the deal with Collingwood and Brisbane?

What’s the deal with Collingwood and Brisbane?

GuyWhoLikesSport

Cue the Seinfeld theme, “What is the deal with Collingwood and Brisbane? I mean, come on..”

And now, for the hot-take

The two grand finalists, fresh off one of the best grand finals in recent memory, are a combined 0-5.

Why?

Conventional wisdom, and the Channel 7 broadcast on Thursday night just before it becoming an impromptu Press Red for Ed game, says that the Pies’ bellies are full after that first premiership.

When it did become a Press Red for Ed broadcast, the reason the Pies were no good was because they had a shorter preseason than everyone else.

Brisbane, on the other hand, has got a case of the losing grand finalist hangover, in addition to the shorter preseason issue which they get less of the benefit of the doubt on.

While neither team is playing terribly well, both well down in scoring, defending, rating points, and virtually everything else, I don’t think that either narrative is true.

Let’s first dispense with the shorter preseason narrative.

Football has always housed dynasties, I was born in 1996 so let’s start there.

North won two in four years and made a Grand Final.

Sandwiched between the North premierships were two Adelaide wins.

Then Brisbane won three straight.

Then West Coast and Sydney contested two straight Grand Finals.

Then Geelong won three in five years and made four Grand Finals in six years.

Then Hawthorn made four straight Grand Finals while Sydney made three Grand Finals in five years.

Then Richmond won three out of four.

Why is this the first time in living memory that the short preseason has been an issue?

But now let’s look at the two teams.

First, because they’re always first, Collingwood. Collingwood doesn’t look like a team who have full bellies.

In the second quarter against St Kilda on Thursday night, they got themselves back into the game on the back of sheer desperation.

McReery and Mciness specifically fashioned goals for themselves and others purely because of effort, and they got themselves in front, kicking 4 in a row for probably their best period of the night.

They looked at home in the desperation of a high-turnover, low-stoppage game.

That’s not the mark of a team that is content.

Statistically, that bears out.

Through three games they’re averaging more pressure acts and tackles inside 50 than they did last year, while their opponents average more clangers against them than they did last year, the effort stats are still there.

It’s just lazy narrative-making.

In reality, the Pies couldn’t afford to lose 5%.

They weren’t such a dominant outfit that they could have some slippage in some areas of their game and still be streets ahead of the competition.

Look, for instance, at just shot differential, how many more shots are you getting than your opponent? ‘

The Pie got about 2 more shots than their opponents in 2023 and were just +9 in expected score differential, good for fifth in the AFL in 2023.

Hawthorn of 2013, a dominant premier at the start of a dynasty, had a +5 goal differential and a +7 shot differential.

Geelong of 2022, the best premier of the 2020s by percentage had 9 more shots than opponents and +28 in expected score.

The Pies’ premiership was a truly impressive high-wire act, winning it all without a functioning forward line. They still don’t have a functioning forward line so to do it again, they couldn’t afford to slip anywhere else.

They have slipped, have not innovated, and the collective is coming down as a result.

In the third term, just as the Saints were building a lead, Steele Sidebottom had two uncharacteristic moments when he gathered the ball off halfback.

He was hurried into an atrocious kick up the wing and when the Saints screamed the ball back in, he was ill-disciplined in clotheslining Owens just on 50.

Is he done?

Pendlebury saved just about his best game ever for the Grand Final last year but isn’t impacting games the same way this year. Was that game perhaps a moment of terminal lucidity for Pendles?

De Goey is looks disinterested.

Cox has been calamitous as a forward but looked a little better in the ruck.

Darcy Moore feels the need to strap on the cape and his risk appetite is off as a result.

I could go on.

They’re Michael Bisping as the UFC middleweight champion to me. He won the belt by virtue of a lack of competition. He was never going to be a dominant champion, but he had a huge heart.

Those things are also true of Collingwood, they are a hard-working, blue-collar side that has just slipped slightly when they couldn’t afford to slip at all.

Either they’re not quite as good, or the competition is better, in any case, they won’t be going back-to-back.

Brisbane feels different.

Last year they were the best team in the competition statistically.

They were the best clearance team, the best scoring team, one of the best defending teams, and were clearly the best team by expected score differential.

But since 2019 they have finished second, second, fourth, sixth, and second again last year, they’ve been up for a very long time.

While Collingwood can’t legitimately use the excuse of being tired, Brisbane can.

And they look like it.

In both games this season they’ve had hefty leads that they’ve simply not been able to go on with.

They haven’t shown the ability this season to step on an opponent’s throat, because they don’t have their bread and butter.

Last season they led the competition in clearances and that was the engine of their game.

This year, they’re generating six fewer clearances per game this year compared to last and are -3 in clearance differential through their two games.

Brisbane, in my view, is a better chance to turn it around than Collingwood given the better talent on the list and their list of ins as the season continues (Ashcroft, Doedee, Neale).

But they’re also more able to access the excuse of being tired after 5 years of sustained success.

But the reality is that the teams aren’t the same dominant forces that they were last year because they weren’t dominant forces last year.

Teams like Sydney and GWS got better and the rest of the competition has simply caught up.

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