The Celtics are currently laying 9.5 points here and I think they’re good value for the win and cover. Given some of the recent spreads in their games, the line value appears to be all on Boston here.
Just last time out, this Pistons side were 1-point home underdogs against the lowly Pelicans. This would translate to a 7-point spread if the game was in New Orleans and this Boston side is clearly 2.5 points better than the Pels.
They possess one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, going 16-3 thus far. Detroit have struggled mightily on the road, finding themselves at 6-14.
The injury bug has hit them hard of late, with Blake Griffin, Luke Kennard, and Reggie Jackson all likely out here. Boston appear to be relatively injury free, with wing Jayson Tatum ruled probable for this one.
Detroit have been competitive of late, but they’ve only won 3 out of 10 against a pretty weak schedule. Boston has a huge edge on the wing and I think they roll to a double-digit victory.
The 27-12 Heat host the 17-21 Spurs here, opening as 5-point favourites. This is again somewhat of a square play, but I like the look of the home favourite.
Miami are another side that are just elite at home. They’re 17-1 in Miami this year, compared to just 10-11 on the road.
Similarly, San Antonio is a significantly worse team on the road than they are at home. They’re above .500 at home, but have gone just 6-12 on the road.
This is the fourth and final game of their road trip and I can see fatigue being an issue here. Both sides have a relatively clean bill of health here, which should favour Miami with more top-end talent.
Ultimately, Miami has been a great home side all season and consistently cashed tickets for bettors. 5 points seems far too low here and I’ll gladly take the more talented team to win and cover.