Wednesday, February 5

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers, 1 pm
Nuggets -4.5

It’s slim pickings today, but I’ll take Denver here in what looks like the ultimate revenge spot. They suffered a heartbreaking loss to Portland in game 7 of the Conference Semis last year, which I’m sure they’re not completely over.

They’re playing at home here, where they’ve got a very solid 19-6 record on the season. Although they’ve improved of late, Portland are just 10-16 on the road thus far.

Paul Millsap remains out for Denver, but both Gary Harris and Jamal Murray are slated to return. This should prove huge against the dynamic Portland backcourt. I recommend checking the injury report prior to tip-off.

It isn’t a great scheduling spot for Denver, but I think the revenge factor overrides this. 4.5 points is a modest line for this dominant of a home side and I’d expect them to cover here.

LA Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs, 2 pm
Lakers -12

This is another line that looks good on paper, but we’re dealing with slim pickings today. I think this is a solid situational spot for LA, given they laid an egg in their last home game against Portland.

They really want a dominant win at Staples to honour Kobe and this represents the perfect opportunity. The Spurs are a poor road side, going just 8-14 on the season so far.

LA have actually been better on the road this season, but they’re still an impressive 16-6 at home. They’ve had two full days off before this one and don’t appear to have any key injuries holding them back.

Given their weakness on the wing, San Antonio also don’t match up well with a LeBron-led side. I can see a comfortable Lakers win here and don’t mind laying the 12 points.

Tuesday, February 4

Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks, 11 am
Pacers -4

I like the look of Indiana here, laying 4 points at home to a banged-up Mavericks side. Dallas is without star man Luka Doncic and Guard Seth Curry here, with Porzingis and Hardaway Jnr both also appearing on the injury report.

Indiana, on the other hand, appear to be getting healthier. Victor Oladipo returned from his long-term absence last week, while Malcolm Brogdon also appears to be over his ailments.

The Pacers should also be well-rested here, having played just once since last Thursday. This will be the third game and plane trip in 4 nights for Dallas, who I’d expect to be fatigued in this spot.

Quietly, Indiana has also managed a very impressive 18-6 home record this season. I think their dynamic backcourt overpowers Dallas here, doing enough to secure both the win and the cover.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers, 11:30 am
Heat -3.5

One of the more obvious recent fades has been betting against the 76ers away from home. They’re a dreadful 9-17 straight up, going just 7-17-2 ATS. I plan to continue fading them here, taking the Heat -3.5 points.

Miami has one of the best home court records in the NBA, going an impressive 21-3 thus far. They’re also 16-7-1 ATS, having cashed tickets for punters all season.

The Sixers appear to be battling a few key injuries here, with Horford, Simmons, and Scott all appearing on the latest injury report. Miami are essentially injury-free for this one, with Kendrick Nunn returning last time out.

It’s tough to pinpoint Philly’s road struggles this season, but Miami definitely isn’t a team they want to face right now. Given their reputations, I suspect some of the Sixers players enjoyed a few Super Bowl after parties last night too. In sticking with recent trends, I’ll take Miami at a relatively modest line here.

Monday, February 3

Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets, 4:30 am
Pistons +2.5

The Pistons are one of the toughest teams in the NBA to back right now, yet that’s part of the reason why I’m backing them here. All the action is coming in on Denver right now and I can see the +2.5 improving before tip-off.

Having lost each of their last 5 games by double digits, one could argue the Pistons are at their nadir in value. The Nuggets are a decent 7-3 in their last 10, although they’ll be without Millsap, Murray, and Porter here.

Denver aren’t quite as good on the road, although 15-9 is still a fairly impressive mark. They managed a win away at Milwaukee last time out, meaning this has all the makings of a letdown game.

This is their third game in four nights and they’re playing at a very unfamiliar early time zone. The situational spot is just poor for Denver here, so I’ll take the 2.5 with Detroit.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, 6 am
Suns +12.5

The Bucks have been the best team in the NBA thus far, but I think this line is a bit inflated. Phoenix are much better on the road than they are at home, having gone 14-8 ATS thus far.

Milwaukee have also been battling a few key injuries, with George Hill out and Giannis and DiVincenzo both day-to-day. Phoenix enter this clash essentially injury free, with Saric the only rotation player expected to miss.

Both of these sides have only played twice in the last week, so I can’t see fatigue being a major issue here. 75% of the early money has also come in on Milwaukee, so taking Phoenix is solid as a contrarian play.

Ultimately, Phoenix’s decent road form make them good value as heavy underdogs here. They’re unlikely to win, but they’ve got a good shot at keeping it under 13.

Sunday, February 2

Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat, 11 am
Heat +1.5

I like Miami here, currently getting a generous 1.5 points away at Orlando. The Heat are comfortably the better of these two sides, going 32-15, compared to the 21-27 record of their opponents.

Their road form has been somewhat questionable, although a trip to Orlando certainly isn’t too far. Orlando are slightly over .500 at home this season and have only won 3 of their last 10 games overall.

They’re battling a few key injuries here, with Evan ‘Don’t Google Me’ Fournier potentially missing here. He joins Jonathan Isaac and Al Farouq Aminu on the sidelines, leaving Orlando decimated on the wing.

Jimmy Butler is probably the best player on the floor here and I can see him dominating this game on both ends. I also see Bam Adebayo really limiting Nikola Vucevic, greatly improving Miami’s chances of winning this outright.

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers, 12:30 pm
Celtics -3

I’m planning to take the Celtics here, currently laying 3 points at home to the Sixers. This is assuming that Kemba Walker plays, who is questionable here with a sore left knee.

The Sixers are a truly atrocious road side, compiling a miserable 9-16 road record thus far. This doesn’t bode well going into Bean Town, taking on a Celtics side that are 19-5 at home.

Philly do have an advantage on the interior, but both Embiid and Horford have been battling injuries of late. This puts a ton of offensive pressure on Ben Simmons, who doesn’t match up great with Boston’s plethora of wings.

This is also a revenge spot for the Celtics, who have been beaten twice already this season by Philly. I expect a relatively close game here, with some late offensive fireworks getting Boston the win and cover.

Saturday, February 1

Detroit Pistons vs Toronto Raptors, 11 am
Pistons +4.5

I like Detroit here as 4.5-point home underdogs. Despite the majority of early bettors coming in on Toronto, the line has moved in Detroit’s favour. This suggests to me that the sharp bettors love this situational spot for the Pistons.

The Raptors travel to Detroit after a back-to-back, meaning that this is their third game in four nights. Marc Gasol is questionable here, as are bench pieces Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Malcolm Miller, and Patrick McCaw.

Detroit should also be very motivated here, primarily due to head coach Dwayne Casey. Casey won Coach of the Year in 2017-18, before being unceremoniously dumped by this same Raptors side.

Known for being an excellent motivator, I expect his team to play very hard for him here. Combine the reverse line movement, a motivational advantage, and extra rest and I expect Detroit to keep this one close, if not win outright.

LA Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers, 2:30 pm
Blazers +13

This is no doubt going to be an emotional game, the Lakers first game since the passing of Kobe Bryant. This line is set very high as a result and I think Portland are somewhat undervalued here getting 13 points.

While the Lakers will no doubt have a ton of motivation here, that motivation goes both ways. Guys like Dame, CJ, and Melo will all want to put on a show and I think they can keep Portland in this.

The Lakers have been on a bit of a dip lately, especially ATS, where they’ve covered just 5 of their last 10 games. They may be without Anthony Davis here, who is questionable due to a ‘gluteus maximus contusion’. This could really hamper their interior defence, making it easier for Portland to keep up.

Having had such a long lay-off, they may also be a bit out of rhythm for this one. I see a high-scoring game here, but an LA win of 14+ points would surprise me.

Friday, January 31

Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors, 12 pm
Warriors +12

I like the Warriors in this spot, getting a very healthy 12-point head start. They’ve performed much better in front of a tv audience this season and this game will be played in primetime on TNT.

This is just the second game of their road trip, so I can’t see fatigue being much of an issue. They’re also much healthier than they’ve been for most of the season, which should hold them in good stead against a deep Celtics rotation.

The main weak point of this Golden State team is their ability to guard on the interior. With Enes Kanter out here for Boston, they don’t really have anyone to capitalize on this.

Jayson Tatum is also questionable here and I could easily see them holding him out in a game they should win anyway. While Boston should win, I think 12 points is just too many for a relatively healthy and motivated Warriors side.

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz, 2:30
Jazz +1.5

Another marquee tv matchup where I like the underdog’s chances. Denver are still dealing with injuries to Millsap and Murray, which are very problematic against this Utah side.

This puts a lot more pressure on Jokic, who has really struggled against Gobert in past matchups. Utah’s defence has definitely improved of late and I can see a low-scoring night for Denver here. With the injuries to their backcourt, we may also see them struggle to guard the dynamic duo of Mitchell and Conley.

Denver are one of the better home sides in the NBA, going 18-6 so far. However, I think a lot of this is due to the relatively unique altitude. Utah are the only other side in the league that also plays at altitude, so they’ll be well equipped to handle this.

The fact that Utah are on a B2B does somewhat concern me, although they’re a relatively young and deep team. They can easily win this one outright, but the 1.5 points of insurance is decent enough value.

Thursday, January 30

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz, 12:30 pm
Jazz ATS

There are no lines available at the time of writing, but I fancy the situational spot for Utah here. They came off a disappointing loss to Houston last time out, while the Spurs are without Aldridge here.

The Jazz have been solid on the road this season, going 14-10, compared to 12-12 at home for San Antonio. Utah are also in much better form, winning 8 of their last 10 outright, in which they covered 7 times.

I like the matchup for Utah here, especially on the interior. Rudy Gobert should be able to patrol the paint in this one and I’d expect San Antonio to struggle to score inside.

The Spurs also lack reliable wing defenders, which isn’t ideal against the trio of Mitchell, Bogdanovic, and Ingles. I’m expecting Utah to be small favourites here, and for this trio to carry them offensively to a win.

Sacramento Kings vs OKC Thunder, 2 pm
OKC ATS

Same story here with no lines available at the time of writing. Assuming we get something relatively even, I like the look of OKC here, presuming Chris Paul returns.

Sacramento had one of the luckiest wins in recent memory last time out, a sequence of events that needs to be seen to be believed. That game went into Overtime, with a lot of their key players playing big minutes.

This was also the fifth game of a 5-game cross country road trip, so I anticipate fatigue being a real issue here. Marvin Bagley’s injury is also a bit of a miss, especially with his recent surge in form.

Where OKC can control this game is in the backcourt. CP3 is easily the best player on the floor here, with SGA a very capable side-kick. These guys should get going against a poor perimeter defence, creating enough for a road OKC win.

Wednesday, January 29

Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks, 11 am
Hornets -1.5

The Hornets are just 1.5-point favourites over the lowly Knicks here, which I think is a bit too low. I think they’re the better of these two sides and they’ve got home court, so this line should be a few points higher.

They did have a weekend game against Milwaukee in Paris, however that’s the only game they’ve played since 21/1. They’re essentially injury free heading into this one and I don’t see fatigue being an issue.

Not to mention the fact that the Knicks are one of the worst road sides in the NBA. They’re just 6-17 away from MSG this season and road wins have come at a premium.

After beating crosstown rivals Brooklyn last time out, I can also see this being somewhat of a letdown game. I think they struggle to contain Charlotte’s young backcourt here, ultimately losing a close one.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans, 11:30 am
Cavs +8

Unless the Cavs are resting a few players on a back-to-back, getting 8 points at home to New Orleans is a bit ridiculous. This means that if the game was being played in New Orleans, the Pelicans would be whopping 14-point favourites.

While they have improved with Zion in the lineup, this spread overrates them a lot. They are an average at best road side, having gone just 9-14 away this season.

They themselves are dealing with a few key injuries, with Kenrich Williams out, and Jrue Holiday, Josh Hart, and JJ Redick all questionable. If any combination of these players are missing, it’ll really impact their offensive creation on the wing.

Most of all, this is purely a line value play. As bad as Cleveland have been, the numbers suggest they should keep this within 8 points.

Monday, January 28

Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 11 am
Cavaliers +6.5

This is more of a bet against Detroit than it is on Cleveland. The line here moved quickly from +7 to +6.5, suggesting the sharps are in agreement with me.

Detroit have been pedestrian at best of late, winning 4 of their last 10 straight up and covering just 3 times. They’re just 9-15 at home this season, inferring that they shouldn’t get much for home court advantage.

They’re also the more injured of these two sides, battling injuries to several key rotation players. Blake Griffin is already done for the year, while Jackson, Snell, and Brown are all questionable for this one.

This has all the makings of a sloppy game that ends up being relatively close late on. While I don’t expect them to win, it’s hard to ignore 6.5 insurance points with Cleveland here.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings, 12 pm
Wolves -3

With how atrocious Minnesota have been of late, no one is looking to back them here. Yet, that is the primary reason I think they’re decent value in this one.

The Kings are in an awful travel spot, playing the final game of a gruelling 5-game road trip. They managed their first win of the trip last time out, which could lead to somewhat of a letdown here.

Minnesota also appear to be nearing full health, with Jake Layman the only player expected to miss here. Marvin Bagley is questionable here for Sacramento, a side that has already weakened their roster with the Ariza trade.

The Wolves have clearly the best player on the court here, with KAT dropping a cool 37 last time out. I think he puts the team on his back en route to a win here, covering the relatively small 3-point spread.

Monday, January 27

San Antonio Spurs vs Toronto Raptors, 8 am
Spurs +3

I’m going with a contrarian play here and taking the Spurs +3 points at home. This is a definite revenge spot for DeMar DeRozan, who isn’t over the trade before last season.

San Antonio have also been much better at home this season, going 12-11 straight up thus far. They enter this clash injury free, with no-one appearing on the injury report before this one.

The early start time is far from ideal for Toronto, who are playing their 4th game on the road in their last 5. This is the 2nd straight home game for the Spurs, who should be looking to avenge a loss to Phoenix last time out.

San Antonio has often played up to the level of competition in recent years and I can see that being the case again here. I’d expect a close game late on and the 3 points of insurance is definitely good value.

New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets, 10:30 am
Nets +1.5

This is definitely somewhat of a square pick, but I’ll take Brooklyn as 1.5-point underdogs here. The Knicks are rarely favoured and they have an atrocious 6-17 home record thus far.

Their backcourt also appears relatively decimated, with both RJ Barrett and Dennis Smith Junior expected to miss here. Brooklyn enter this clash essentially injury free, with KD the only long-term absence.

The Nets have admittedly also been terrible of late, only winning 2 of their last 10 outright. That said, I think they’ve got a huge matchup advantage in the backcourt here.

Irving and Dinwiddie provide 48 minutes of quality PG play, where the Knicks have struggled to defend dynamic guards. If these two can generate reliable offence, it should be enough to beat an atrocious Knicks side as outright underdogs.