Monday, November 25

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 am
Under 232.5

Both of these sides have impressed to start this season, each winning 10+ games while only losing 5. Houston have opened as 5.5-point favourites here, but I’m going to opt for a total play.

I anticipate a relatively low scoring contest here and like the look of under 232.5 points. Both of these sides have been on a tear offensively of late, but I don’t think this is sustainable. Instead, I think these recent offensive outbursts have artificially increased the total here, creating decent line value on the under.

This is a relatively early game, played at 7:30 am, which also lends itself to the under. NBA players are creatures of routine and playing a game 5-6 hours early can definitely throw off their rhythm.

While Doncic is playing out of his mind right now, I don’t really trust anyone else on the Mavericks. In guys like Tucker, Sefolosha, and Rivers, the Rockets have several capable bodies to make life difficult on Luka.

On the flipside, the Dallas guards have also been surprisingly impressive defensively this season. I think they can at least somewhat limit Harden here, daring the mercurial Westbrook to shoot from distance.

This is a relatively tight one to call, but I think I’m buying low picking an under the way these two teams have been playing. Especially if we avoid the foul game late, I see this one coming off a decent percentage of the time.

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns, 12 pm
Nuggets -9

The Nuggets have quietly been very impressive this season, racing out to an 11-3 record. Phoenix have also battled hard all season, sitting just above .500 at 8-7.

While the line isn’t available in some places, the general consensus is that Denver should be favoured by 9 here. I don’t think this is enough points and will be backing the home favourite in this one.

A large part of the reason behind this is the rotation injuries that continue to plague Phoenix. Several key rotation players missed the game yesterday, notably Ricky Rubio, Aron Baynes, Ty Jerome, and Cam Johnson.

Phoenix look especially weak on the interior without Baynes and Ayton, allowing the dangerous duo of Millsap and Jokic to feast inside. I also like their matchup against Devin Booker, with Gary Harris a very capable guard defender.

The Suns also enter this clash rather fatigued, with this being their third clash in 4 nights. It comes on the end of a back-to-back, after guys like Booker and Oubre played 38 minutes last night. This isn’t ideal against Denver of all teams and I can see these two potentially struggling in the altitude here.

Despite their very strong record, the Nuggets are also below .500 ATS this season. This makes me think the general public is still somewhat against them and we’re getting great value as a result.

Sunday, November 24

New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs, 11:30 am
Knicks +2.5

The Spurs have been in absolutely atrocious form of late, winning just 1 of their last 11 to sit 5-11 on the season. The Knicks, unsurprisingly, aren’t any better, going just 4-11 to sit dead last out East.

San Antonio are currently 2.5-point favourites in this one, getting over 70% of the early action. I don’t think the public realises how bad this team has been of late and I see some value in the underdog Knicks here.

After a somewhat promising start to the season, the wheels have definitely fallen off in San Antonio. They haven’t just lost to good teams, falling the likes of Memphis, Minnesota, and even the lowly Wizards.

Their defence has been especially atrocious, giving up a whopping 138 points to Washington on Thursday. Although they’ve been putting up points offensively, the mid-range style of play clearly isn’t working well.

This isn’t a great spot for them either, playing in Philadelphia late last night. It is also the last of their four-game road trip and I can definitely see a bit of a flat spot here. I’d also expect Derrick White to miss this one, which is a major loss in their backcourt.

Despite their poor record, the Knicks have been better than the general public thinks this season. Their last four games have been especially promising, winning twice and losing the other two by less than 5.

They enter this one well-rested after two days off and don’t have any key injuries. I particularly like their matchup on the interior, with their bevy of bigs likely able to contain Aldridge.

With the way the Spurs are playing right now, I just don’t see how they can be road favourites over an improving Knicks side. This is a coin-flip type of game and I’ll happily take the underdogs, especially with the contrarian angle.

Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Lakers, 12 pm
Grizzlies +7.5

The Lakers have had a very impressive start to the season, winning 13 of their first 15 and sitting atop the West. Memphis have been competitive in most games this season, although still find themselves a lowly 5-9.

The Lakers are 7.5-point favourites in this one, getting the slight majority of the early action. I’m again looking to take the home underdog here, primarily because the optics really favour them.

LA enter this one on a back-to-back, having played a late on in OKC last night. In their only previous B2B this season, we saw Anthony Davis rested against Golden State. Despite their comments about load management earlier this season, I can see a couple of rotation players sitting out here.

Memphis, on the other hand, enter this one very well-rested, playing only once since Monday. They’ve been at home for over a week now and will look to rectify their poor performance against Golden State last time out.

This is also somewhat of a revenge spot for them after they were obliterated by 30 against the Lakers about 4 weeks ago. They’ve got one of the more underrated home court advantages in the league and I expect a strong effort here.

I also think they match up relatively well with LA, even if both LeBron and AD are playing. Jae Crowder is a credible defensive option to go against LeBron, while Jaren Jackson and Valanciunas can at least limit AD on the interior.

Combine this with the noticeable rest advantage and strong home field and I’d expect Memphis to keep this one fairly close. Especially if you can get them through the key number of 7, take the Grizz plus the points here.

 

Saturday, November 23

Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets, 11 am
Hornets +6

Both sides have started the season well below .500, with Charlotte sitting 9th in the East and Washington 11th. Washington have managed 2 wins in their last 3, while Charlotte have suffered consecutive disappointing losses.

The Wizards have opened as 6-point favourites here, getting a strong 72% of the early action. Although they’ve been poor of late, I think there’s too much line value on Charlotte to pass up.

Realistically, I’m not sure how you favour the Wizards by 6 against anyone right now. They do have Brad Beal, but the rest of their starting five is a dumpster fire. Their second best starter is probably Thomas Bryant and even he’s 50/50 to play in this one.

When looking at the season as a whole, these last two performances by Charlotte seem like negative outliers. They had largely been very competitive before that, keeping the majority of their games close.

They’re fully healthy for this one and also enter this clash well-rested, having played once in the last 3 days. I like the matchup for them here, particularly with young forwards PJ Washington and Miles Bridges.

The key for them is obviously limiting Brad Beal and perimeter defence is a relative strength for this squad. Washington can’t stop anybody and I expect both Rozier and Graham to find a rhythm here.

The Wizards deserve to be favourites but I think 6 points is just too much in this one. Especially if the line goes out further, I’ll take the points in what should be a close one.

LA Clippers vs Houston Rockets, 2:30 pm
Clippers -4.5

Both of these sides have started the season strongly, winning 21 of their combined 30 games. The Clippers open as 4.5-point favourites in this one, with a relatively even spread of action so far.

I’m going to roll with the favourite in this spot, primarily due to their huge matchup advantage on the wing. As good as Houston’s guard play has been thus far, their wing depth is a clear weakness.

This isn’t a huge issue against most opponents, but it’ll get magnified against the three-headed monster of Kawhi, PG, and Harkless. Houston just don’t have enough players to guard these guys, while I think the bigger bodies should limit Harden. Westbrook and Beverley have also had their battles in the past and I can see another infamous Westbrook self-combustion if things go wrong here.

Houston are also a relatively thin side without a lot of reliable bench contributors. This should also get magnified against a Clippers side that features the lethal duo of Lou and Trez. The lack of a bench was on clear display against Denver last time out, where they couldn’t hang at the altitude.

Kawhi and PG have both looked good since returning from injury and I expect them to dictate this game. Role players like Beverley, Harkless, Harrell, and Williams also all have favourable matchups and should push this side over the top. Especially if you can get in under the key number of 5, I like the Clippers for the win and cover in this spot.

Friday, November 22

Phoenix Suns vs New Orleans Pelicans, 2:30 pm
Pelicans +4.5

The Suns have had a decent campaign thus far, sitting 8th in the West at 7-6. Despite an awful start, 3 wins in their last 4 has New Orleans now at 5-9.

The injuries make this a relatively tough game to predict, although that’s even more true in the Portland/Milwaukee game. That said, I think these sides are heading in opposite directions and I’ll take New Orleans plus 4.5 here.

As good as Phoenix were to start the season, their recent form slump is largely attributable to a few rotation injuries. Both Rubio and Baynes have been excellent for this side so far and both have been officially ruled out here.

Even 3rd choice Center Frank Kaminsky is questionable for this one, while PF Dario Saric isn’t at 100%. I think this gives New Orleans a fair fight on the interior, where they’ve consistently been outmuscled all year.

The Rubio injury is also huge as he would’ve been the primary defender on Jrue Holiday. Holiday put up 22 and 10 against Portland the other day and I expect another big day up against Jevon Carter.

These injuries also put a lot more strain on Devin Booker, who has had a noticeable dip in efficiency of late. In Holiday, Williams, and Ingram, the Pels have several solid wing defenders to help limit Booker. New Orleans should also get a little healthier here, with both Lonzo Ball and Jahlil Okafor considered 50/50 shots to play.

With Phoenix’s injuries, I think they’ll be giving too many points to guys that just aren’t NBA rotation calibre. This is a coin-flip type of game for me and I’ll take my chances with the better backcourt and 4.5 points.

Thursday, November 21

Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets, 11:30 am
Hornets +4.5

The Nets have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NBA this season, sitting outside the playoffs with a 5-8 record. A gritty Hornets side somehow occupies a spot in the top 8, just ahead of Brooklyn at 6-8.

Brooklyn opened as a 4-point favourite in this one, however 79% of the action on them has moved the line to +4.5. As usual, I see some value on the contrarian line of thinking here and will take Charlotte plus the points.

The main reason for this is that Brooklyn is absolutely decimated in the backcourt at present. Both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert have been ruled out here and the offence has taken a noticeable dip in their absence. 6th man Spencer Dinwiddie has been dealing with a ton of off-court issues and he also may not be fully focused here.

On the flipside, this Hornets team has no key injuries to speak of, after Batum and Bacon returned last time out. They got absolutely blown out by the Raptors and I expect a much more focused performance here.

One thing that Charlotte has done very well this season is beat the dregs. They’ve taken care of business against Chicago, Sacramento, Golden State, Detroit, and New York.

With how awful the Knicks have been playing of late, I really don’t see how they should be laying 4.5 against anyone, except an injured Golden State side. This has all the makings of a coin-flip type of game and I’ll gladly take the 4.5, while also sprinkling some on the moneyline.

Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic, 11:30 am
Magic +4.5

There has been no championship hangover for Toronto, who’ve started the season an impressive 9-4. Orlando have struggled for a lot of this year, but a few recent wins has them 7th at 6-7.

Toronto find themselves as 4.5 point favourites here, getting an astounding 84% of the early betting action. Given the injuries Toronto have been dealing with, I’ll again take the contrarian approach and side with Orlando here.

With Lowry, Ibaka, and Johnson out here, the Raptors are really down to 5 quality rotation players. This puts a ton of pressure on their starting lineup and means their second unit is really susceptible to quick scoring runs.

Orlando are also looking like a more attractive option to bet, largely because they’ve disappointed punters most of this season. I think a lot of this was due to unsustainably poor shooting from deep, making them undervalued in the market.

I’d expect at least one of DJ Augustin and Jonathan Isaac here, meaning they’ve got a very solid 8-man rotation. I particularly like the matchup for their second unit, especially with Terrence Ross against his former side.

Since this injury bug hit, the Raptors have gone a relatively solid 3-2. I think the fatigue to their starters will begin to pile up and they could be vulnerable if Lowry and Ibaka don’t return soon.

Guys like Siakam and Van Vleet will need to expend a ton of energy against the stout Orlando D and I can see them fading late in this one. Orlando has a legitimate shot of getting the win here, but I’ll take the insurance with the extra 4.5 points.

Wednesday, November 20

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors, 12 pm
Under 222.5

I’d typically avoid a game between two tanking sides, but the dearth of options today makes this one of the best on the board. I’m opting for a play on the total as opposed to the spread, going under the current number of 222.5.

This is largely a line value play, with a huge 12-point difference from the total of Memphis’ last game. Although they went over in that one, I don’t think this game lends itself to free-flowing and attacking play.

As we all know, Golden State is dealing with a plethora of injuries right now. Literally half of their team is out injured, including all 3 of their playmaking guards.

This limits their rotation options available in this one, putting extra strain on the guys that are suiting up. As such, I expect a slower game here with less possessions that lends itself to a lower number of points. It’s a terrible spot for potential fatigue for Golden State, in the middle of a road trip on the front end of a back-to-back.

The Warriors offence has been horrendous of late, largely due to very poor perimeter shooting. They’ve got very little creation from the perimeter, which should aid an often vulnerable Grizzlies defence.

I see this as a very similar game to the Golden State and New Orleans one on Monday. Both sides lack a consistent scoring punch and I think points will be hard to come by here. Under 222.5 also gives us plenty of wiggle room in case it’s close down the stretch and the free throw game starts.

Sacramento Kings vs Phoenix Suns, 2 pm
Kings -1.5

The Kings have been much improved of late, moving to 5-7 and occupying 10th place in the West. Phoenix continue to impress this season, sitting 7-4 prior to their game with Boston on Tuesday afternoon.

The Suns continue to garner the majority of bettors’ action, getting 61% as 1.5-point underdogs. I had success backing Sacramento against Boston last time out and I like the spot for them again here.

Sacramento enter this clash very well-rested and they’ve got a full 2 rest days before their next clash. Phoenix have had a bit of a fixture overload of late and enter this one somewhat fatigued after playing Boston last night.

The Kings also seemingly have a clean bill of health for this one, with Ariza and Dedmon both getting past their injuries. I’d expect Rubio to miss this one for Phoenix again, forcing Jevon Carter to start and really messing up their rotation. This also puts a lot more strain on Devin Booker, who the defence will undoubtedly focus on.

Sacramento has also been surprisingly good of late, covering all 7 games during the month of November. I think their early season struggles were a result of their pre-season trip to India and recent performance is more indicative of their talent level.

Although Phoenix have looked better than anyone expected, there is definitely line value on the Kings here. These two sides met in Phoenix on opening day, where the Kings were 2.5-point road favourites.

This line suggests that the gap between these two sides has changed by 7 points in less than a month, which is far too much for my liking. Especially with a strong home court advantage, I like Sacramento here at the relatively small line of -1.5.

Tuesday, November 19

Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 1 pm
Jazz -9.5

The Jazz have gotten off to a solid start out West, sitting pretty with a record of 8-4. Minnesota have been inconsistent but still rather solid thus far, sitting above .500 at 7-6.

Utah opened as 10-point favourites in this one, a line that has moved to 9.5 after 80% of the action was on Minnesota. In a move that won’t surprise many people, I’m opting for the contrarian approach and taking Utah -9.5

I think the public has really bought in to the strong Timberwolves start and is continuing to overvalue them in the market. They looked atrocious on a weekend back-to-back, getting blown out by 20+ against both the Wizards and Houston.

They’re also far from healthy, entering this clash with a relatively thin rotation. Wiggins, Okogie, and Napier are all expected to be out here, really limiting their options on the perimeter.

This forces guys like Graham, Layman, and Culver to take on more responsibility, which I’m not sure they’re ready for. On the flipside, they’re going against a deep Utah side with essentially no key rotation players out.

Combine a shorter rotation with 3 games in 4 days and playing at Utah’s altitude and I see the Wolves struggling with fatigue here. The Jazz are well-rested here and should be motivated to avenge their loss against Memphis on Saturday.

A lot of matchups are in Utah’s favour here, with Gobert likely able to contain Towns, and Wiggins and Mitchell able to go crazy on a weak perimeter defence. 9.5 points may seem high on the surface, but all the optics favour a good Utah side here.

LA Clippers vs OKC Thunder, 2:30 pm
Thunder +8.5

Despite looking like the NBA’s best team at times, the 8-5 Clippers are only 6th in the West at the moment. A frisky OKC side somehow finds themselves in 9th, despite a mediocre 5-7 record.

The Clippers have opened as 8.5-point favourites in this one, garnering a huge 75% of the early action. Again, I see some value going the contrarian route and like the look of the underdog here.

The main reason for this is the expected injuries and the impact they’ll have on the line. Despite Doc Rivers’ comments, I’m not sure we see Kawhi here after his recent knee injury, keeping in line with the load management theme.

Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are both also questionable here, meaning we could see another makeshift starting backcourt. Paul George has looked excellent since returning from injury, but he’s still on a minutes limit and clearly isn’t at 100%.

This means we could see a huge shake-up in the rotation, with guys like Mann, McGruder and Robinson getting more time. While these guys are NBA calibre players, the drop-off is substantial and shifts a few things in OKC’s favour.

The Thunder, on the other hand, enter this one with a clean bill of health and a few days of rest. Especially if some of the LA guards can’t go, I think a backcourt of CP3 and SGA probably look for revenge against their former side.

Even if the top Clippers players can go here, I think 8.5 points is a fair line of separation for these two squads. This means we essentially get a free-roll here, in case the line goes down with injury news. As such, I think this is definitely a +EV play in what I expect to be a fairly close game.

Monday, November 18

Sacramento Kings vs Boston Celtics, 7:30 am
Kings +3

The Celtics have been incredibly impressive to start the season, winning 10 straight to sit 10-1. Sacramento appear to have turned a corner of late, although they’re still languishing with a 4-7 record.

Boston opened as 3.5-point favourites for this clash and the line has actually come in slightly, despite over 70% of action on the road side. This tells me that the big bettors like the contrarian angle of Sacramento here, something that I agree with.

As good as Boston have been this season, I can’t help but think they’re somewhat overrated. They’ve had a fairly soft schedule thus far and done an effective job at making the most of it.

I thought this West-Coast swing would really test them and they struggled to close out an injury-riddled Warriors side last time out. This isn’t a great spot for them either, being the second of a 5-game West Coast swing and first night of a back-to-back.

They’re battling a bunch of injuries on the interior, with both Robert Williams and Daniel Theis questionable for this one. Fatigue could really set in on this long road trip and losing those rotation players would be huge.

I also think the market is underrating Sacramento after their porous start to the season. They’ve actually looked much better of late and managed to cover in each of their last 6 games. The loss of De’Aaron Fox is a big one, but this side still gets very capable PG play with Joseph and Ferrell.

Sacramento have a strong home court advantage and I expect them to really push Boston here. This one could really go either way, but I’ll gladly take the home dog through the key number of 3.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets, 10 am
Over 211.5

The Nuggets are beginning to look like frontrunners out West, racing out to a solid 8-3 start. Memphis has also been surprisingly frisky thus far, going 5-7 and remaining in the playoff hunt.

While I think the line in this one is set well, I do see some value on over at the current number of 211.5. The Grizzlies play at a higher pace than many people believe and have gone over this number in 9 of 11 games this season.

Denver has played at a slower pace of late but I see them scoring relatively easily on this Memphis defence. Valanciunas isn’t a great matchup against Jokic and I see Jamal Murray being able to exploit the young Memphis guards.

It is also a pretty favourable spot for both sides, with minimal injuries or fatigue for either team. None of the major rotation players are out, while neither side is in the midst of a long road trip or back-to-back situation.

As a young team, this Memphis group really likes to get out and run and I expect them to push the pace here. Playing in altitude for half of their season, this is something that Denver can handle with ease and should play into their hands. I think this gives us more total possessions here, which should result in over the lowest total of the day.

Sunday, November 17

Chicago Bulls vs Brooklyn Nets, 10 am
Under 231.5

Neither of these sides have started particularly well, both only managing 4 wins thus far. While the majority of punters like Brooklyn +1 on the road here, I’m going to opt for another total play in this one.

Currently set at 231.5 points, I really like the look of the under here. First and foremost, the Brooklyn offence is really handicapped by injuries at the moment.

Caris LeVert is out for a few weeks, while star PG Kyrie Irving is questionable with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go, I just don’t see how this Brooklyn side can reliably create on the perimeter.

The Bulls have also been hit by the injury bug of late. Otto Porter has been ruled out for this one, while Zach LaVine is day-to-day with an ankle injury. These are two of the Bulls premier offensive players and scoring will be significantly tougher without them.

I also don’t anticipate this being a spot where these sides have a lot of energy. This is the first game back East for Brooklyn after a 4-game West Coast swing, with the time difference having a noticeable impact.

These are two sides with inconsistent offences that are likely to be without some of their best offensive creators in this matchup. While neither defence has been all that impressive, I’m still confident in the under at this number.

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11 am
Pacers +6

The Pacers have gotten off to a solid 7-4 start to the campaign, while Milwaukee are also sitting pretty at 8-3. The line in this one has gravitated between 5.5 and 6 points, with Milwaukee receiving a whopping 82% of the early action.

This appears to be an excellent contrarian spot and I’m looking to take Indiana here. Despite being without Oladipo and Turner, they’ve acquitted themselves very well of late.

Malcolm Brogdon has looked like a very solid backcourt playmaker, while Domantas Sabonis has credibly manned the interior. They haven’t beat many of the league’s best sides but they consistently get the job done. The Fieldhouse is an especially tough place to play, where they boast a 5-1 record thus far.

Milwaukee also enter this clash far from healthy. All-Star Guard Khris Middleton is out for a few weeks at least and I’m not sure the average fan appreciates his impact. This puts a lot more pressure on Bledsoe as a second option, who’s far from consistent.

The Bucks also haven’t been world beaters thus far, largely taking advantage of a relatively easy schedule. They don’t match up especially well with the Pacers and should be in for a close one here.

The one negative here is that Indiana are on a back-to-back after a tense game in Houston last night. That said, as a relatively young side I think they’ll still have a lot of energy going into this one. Especially if you can get 6 points, I love the contrarian angle with Indiana here.

 

Saturday, November 16

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Washington Wizards, 12 pm
Under 240.5 Points

The Timberwolves continue to impress, moving to 7-4 after their third win in 4 games. Washington continue to sit near the bottom of the East, winning just 2 of their 9 games thus far.

In this game, I’ll look to focus on the total, specifically backing under at the current line of 240.5 points. This is an incredibly high total for two sides with relatively inconsistent offences.

In Washington’s 9 games this season, they’ve only gone over this total twice, with Minnesota only doing so in 3 of their 11 games. Both sides will run through KAT and Beal respectively, but the other options leave a lot to be desired.

Additionally, both of these sides appear to be shooting unsustainably well from both mid-range and the 3-point line. Andrew Wiggins in particular has looked quite solid this season and you have to wonder how long that continues given his history.

This spot also isn’t conducive to a lot of points from either side. This is the second game in a 3-game trip for Washington, while this is the front-end of a back-to-back for Minnesota.

Based on the early action, this appears to be a game where the total will be continually bet up by the general public. That said, I just don’t see the number of possessions or shooting percentages being high enough here to go over this huge number. Especially at 240.5, I very strongly lean towards the under here.

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics, 2:30 pm
Warriors +8

The Warriors have been the worst side in the NBA thus far, stumbling out of the gate to a 2-10 record. On the flipside, Boston have raced out to a league-best 9-1.

Punters have unsurprisingly been all over the Celtics thus far, with 68% of the early money coming in on Boston. However, I think there is just too much line value on the underdog to ignore here.

As a point of reference, the Warriors just played against the Lakers on Thursday and closed as 8-point dogs, admittedly without AD. Accounting for home court, this means they would’ve been favoured by just 2 if the game was at the Chase Center.

As solid as Boston have been thus far, I just don’t see how they’re 6 point favourites over the Lakers on a neutral, even without AD. I think far too much of this is the public going against Golden State after a few disastrous results.

The Warriors are the healthiest they’ve been over the last few weeks, with both D’Angelo and Draymond having a solid run in the side. Although it was a pretty disastrous effort last time out, I think we’re in for a better Golden State effort at home.

This isn’t a particularly favourable spot for the Celtics either. It is their first game on a gruelling West-Coast swing and their body clocks are still adjusting.

While Enes Kanter started last time out, he is still clearly working his way back to full fitness. Gordon Hayward was having a career year until his injury and definitely would’ve been poised for a big game here.

Combine all of these factors and I think we’re in for a relatively close game here. Especially if you can get 8 points, back the Warriors at their lowest value and potentially also sprinkle some on the moneyline.