Both of these sides have impressed to start this season, each winning 10+ games while only losing 5. Houston have opened as 5.5-point favourites here, but I’m going to opt for a total play.
I anticipate a relatively low scoring contest here and like the look of under 232.5 points. Both of these sides have been on a tear offensively of late, but I don’t think this is sustainable. Instead, I think these recent offensive outbursts have artificially increased the total here, creating decent line value on the under.
This is a relatively early game, played at 7:30 am, which also lends itself to the under. NBA players are creatures of routine and playing a game 5-6 hours early can definitely throw off their rhythm.
While Doncic is playing out of his mind right now, I don’t really trust anyone else on the Mavericks. In guys like Tucker, Sefolosha, and Rivers, the Rockets have several capable bodies to make life difficult on Luka.
On the flipside, the Dallas guards have also been surprisingly impressive defensively this season. I think they can at least somewhat limit Harden here, daring the mercurial Westbrook to shoot from distance.
This is a relatively tight one to call, but I think I’m buying low picking an under the way these two teams have been playing. Especially if we avoid the foul game late, I see this one coming off a decent percentage of the time.
The Nuggets have quietly been very impressive this season, racing out to an 11-3 record. Phoenix have also battled hard all season, sitting just above .500 at 8-7.
While the line isn’t available in some places, the general consensus is that Denver should be favoured by 9 here. I don’t think this is enough points and will be backing the home favourite in this one.
A large part of the reason behind this is the rotation injuries that continue to plague Phoenix. Several key rotation players missed the game yesterday, notably Ricky Rubio, Aron Baynes, Ty Jerome, and Cam Johnson.
Phoenix look especially weak on the interior without Baynes and Ayton, allowing the dangerous duo of Millsap and Jokic to feast inside. I also like their matchup against Devin Booker, with Gary Harris a very capable guard defender.
The Suns also enter this clash rather fatigued, with this being their third clash in 4 nights. It comes on the end of a back-to-back, after guys like Booker and Oubre played 38 minutes last night. This isn’t ideal against Denver of all teams and I can see these two potentially struggling in the altitude here.
Despite their very strong record, the Nuggets are also below .500 ATS this season. This makes me think the general public is still somewhat against them and we’re getting great value as a result.