This piece was initially going to be some early reactions to trade period and the general offseason circus, but that can wait until it’s all over.
Instead, I want to focus on the bigger point of what the AFL has become, and how it mirrors the world. I make the point in two distinct ways:
- The AFL is becoming a gerontocracy, and
- The rich continue to get richer forever and always.
Let’s deal with both in turn.
The AFL is becoming a gerontocracy
The President of the United States is 80. The previous President of the United States left office at 82.
England is descending into political turmoil because the Prime Minister has the temerity to question whether the pension should go up at an obscene rate every year because of an arcane policy that is having a severe economic impact on a country that can’t particularly afford to deal with severe economic impacts.
In this country, boomers have cracked the sads because their fourth investment property is going down in value even though they’re getting a raise on the 2 million they have in cash in their long-term savings account.
Our biggest movie stars are still Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise, both over 60. The only thing that really works in culture is nostalgia from when the old guys were in their primes.
It’s also happening in sport. As sports science gets better, athletes are playing well for longer. Look around the world and we saw Tom Brady play until he was 45, LeBron James is still doing it at 41, Leo Messi dominated the World Cup at 39, and Cristiano Ronldo has finally cracked the sads with the Portuguese national team.
The forever athlete is now the norm.
The whole world basically runs on and for old people, and the AFL is going in the same direction broadly, and for two clubs in particular.
Across the competition, the average age of players has essentially gone up in a straight line since 2012. In 2012, the average age of a player who played in a game was 24.6. In 2017, he was 25.1. In 2022 he was 25.5. In 2026, he was 26.
In essence, every five years the average age of a player goes up about half a year. Simply, players are playing for longer and therefore footy is getting older. Interestingly, this age rise trend coincides exactly with the start of free agency which was brought in at the end of the 2012 season. Clubs are simply asking “why would I project a young bloke when I know there’s an old bloke that is available who can do the job?” It’s the inverse of the IRA getting Dolours to do the London bombing in Say Nothing.
While that should have some macro effects on non-premium draft picks for teams that don’t care about points, some clubs are leaning even more heavily than anyone into the science.
Geelong and Collingwood were the two oldest clubs in the AFL in 2026 and they’ve spent this offseason adding Rowan Marshall (30), Toby Greene (33), Jordan Ridley (27) Lachie Neale (33), and Jesse Hogan (31). In the case of Marshall, Geelong parted with pick 14 because it preferred to have the established player rather than the speculative pick.
It’s an interesting counterfactual, but broadly I think they would because for the destination clubs it’s clear that they think they can top up whenever they feel like they need to. It goes to the bigger point that if you’re one of those clubs, spending time in development of non-premium talent is probably a waste of time because you can just live with getting players between 22 and 32 and stay relevant forever.
The AFL is a gerontocracy, and it’s translating directly to players over picks.
The rich are getting richer forever and always
The biggest acquisitions so far in the offseason have been those mentioned in the first part of this column, as well as Zach Merrett to Hawthorn. It also seems likely at this point that Ben King will be on his way to Waverley.
All of the teams that acquired the biggest names have won premierships since 2014 and have been in preliminary finals since 2020. This comes the year after the biggest acquisition in free agency was Oscar Allen to the reigning premiers in Brisbane. Free agency is now an annual SpaceX IPO, where it turns hundred millionaires into billionaires and billionaires into trillionaires.
This is, incidentally, exactly what the concern was when free agency was brought in. That concern has played out perfectly and now it’s clear that the league, like the world, has a two-tiered economy.
The good clubs get to play in the big boy pool, while the teams that are down on their luck play in the kiddy pool. While they might win transactions like Richmond did with Nathan O’Driscoll for pick 61, Nathan O’Driscoll is not a needle mover in the way that Zach Merrett or Ben King could be for Hawthorn.
This is an existential problem for a league that pays its bills because of the promise of parity. That promise is slowly slipping away, especially as some clubs seem to get away with Aspiration style outside financing. Relatedly, I have no doubt that Chris Scott is providing the team at Morris Finance some strong leadership advice!
Depending on what happens with Nick Blakey, that might shift the balance on this issue a bit. While he, like everyone, wanted Geelong initially, he’s now picked the Roos and could be the piece that gets them over the top. North will pay at the top of the market for him, but even the fact that he chose them is a boon for the Roos and probably the competition. However, it’s no guarantee that he does get moved at the time of writing.
Even if Blakey does get to North, the surprise of everyone is the point. I’m always reticent to call for AFL intervention, but in this space it might truly be time.