The first week of Finals is about to begin, with the Blues and Dogs punching their tickets following respective Wildcard wins.
A packed house is expected for Thursday’s first Qualifying Final between minor premiers Fremantle and the visiting Hawks, before the first Elimination Final on Friday night between the well-rested Cats and a Carlton outfit hoping to keep the good times rolling.
The Lions head to Sydney with a selection headache to address ahead of Saturday’s QF clash with the Swans, while the Adelaide Oval is the final stop for the loser of Crows v Dogs.
Who moves on and who goes home?
Best bets, tips, and predictions for a mammoth Week 1 of Finals below!
Fremantle vs Hawthorn Predictions
A sold out Optus Stadium will greet the Dockers and Hawks for the first game of the finals on Thursday night.
Hawthorn’s form entering September is questionable to say the least, but they might find some comfort in the fact they just kicked 16 goals against West Coast on this same ground on a fortnight earlier.
Obviously, this Dockers team poses a much sterner test however, and no one knows that better than Hawthorn coach, Sam Mitchell.
The Hawks lost by 14 points when they met Freo back in Round 9, a game that swung in the balance across all four quarters with Hawthorn notably leading by three goals at the main break.
As they did that night (and all season) Fremantle showed they only need one or two good quarters to put opponents away, and with rested legs and the likes of Jye Amiss returning to the forward line, it’s easy to side with the Dockers in this one.
The battle between the mids will be fascinating with Jack Ginnivan also back for the Hawks, but for a forward line that has sputtered over the last four weeks, the Hawks will need to be almost perfect in front of goal to pull off the upset.
Freo limited Mitchell’s men to just 42 inside 50 entries in that previous meeting. With Nick Watson running hot and cold week to week, and plenty of pressure around Mabior Chol and Mitch Lewis to lift their game, the Dockers’ back half should have the final say here.
Prediction: Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.10
Value: Fremantle to Win & Under 164.5 Total Points @ $2.65
Player Pick: Karl Amon 20+ Disposals @ $2.10
Geelong Cats vs Carlton Predictions
Cats coach Chris Scott has had an extra week to prepare for this clash, which is typically when he does his best work.
There’s the potentially big news on the injury front with both Max Holmes and James Worpel a chance at returning, while the Blues are sweating Will Hayward’s fitness throughout the week.
Facing a battle-tested Geelong side in the finals is a tough ask for anyone, but the Blues will be high on confidence following last week’s dramatic win over Melbourne.
Jagga Smith and Sam Walsh shone bright in the 19-point win, alongside brilliant individual efforts from key role players like Ollie Hollands and Ben Ainsworth.
At the same time, the Blues trailed by three goals at quarter time, which is becoming something of a trend after surrendering an early margin to Fremantle the previous week.
Taking nothing away from their fairytale season, but you could argue the Blues benefited from an off night in front of goal from the likes of Kozzie Pickett, not to mention their struggles winning the ball out of the ruck.
The Cats, meanwhile, have enjoyed an easy run with games against the Tigers, North, and Essendon over the last month, so this does shape as a step up in terms of class.
On the plus side though, they lost by four to the Blues earlier in the season where they also dominated the hit-outs and moved the ball from their defensive half with relative ease.
In what is something of a revenge game, the edge belongs to last year’s Grand Final runner-ups, but don’t be surprised if the Blues keep it close and go down swinging.
Prediction: Carlton to Cover (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.20
Player Pick: Tom Stewart 25+ Disposals @ $2.90
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
The Lions head back to the SCG on Saturday, the site of a 44 point drubbing at the hands of the Swans way back in Round 1.
The back to back premiers had their revenge at the Gabba in late June when they ran out winners by a very similar margin, setting up a fascinating rubber match with team selections at the forefront of everyone’s mind.
Hugh McCluggage is fit and ready to return to Brisbane’s midfield, but who misses out ahead of Team List Thursday will be fascinating with names like Oscar Allen, Darcy Fort, and Jarrod Berry potentially on the chopping block.
With top line talent missing, the Swans are also in for a potential boost with Justin McInerney and Joel Amartey both a chance at lacing the boots up off long injury stints.
For a pick, the Swans winning and maybe making it as far as the Grand Final would go down as one of the greatest stories in footy. But when you stop and look at Brisbane’s recent three-game winning streak, it’s obvious the Lions have clicked into top gear with demoralising victories over Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and Collingwood.
The goals have been flowing and it hasn’t been just one guy piling on the points, with All-Australians Logan Morris and Zac Bailey, plus Charlie Cameron and even Eric Hipwood enjoying the spoils.
Down back, Harris Andrews has returned to career-best form, not to mention Will Ashcroft, who is said to have a chip on his shoulder after missing out on AA selection last week.
All up, the Swans still have the pieces to make a game of this, but the Lions’ depth and talent looks too much.
Prediction: Lions to Cover (-25.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Lions 40+ @ $2.55
Player Pick: Will Ashcroft 35+ Disposals @ $2.95
Adelaide Crows vs Western Bulldogs Predictions
As far as finals dark horses go, the Dogs just about tick all the boxes.
Downing the Pies in Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom’s final game in black and white is a scalp all on its own, but the way Luke Beveridge’s forward line functioned must have fans of the Kennel excited.
A healthy Cody Weightman and Aaron Naughton (who may be in doubt this week with a hamstring) were always the keys to success with Sam Darcy missing, but it helps knowing you can fall back on arguably the best player in the competition, Marcus Bontempelli.
The Dogs’ crisp ball movement and ability to launch the ball forward after dominating the clearances makes them the most impressive and dangerous team to emerge from the Wildcard Round, at least in my opinion.
They will be a serious handful for a Crows side that has dark horse claims themselves, especially if Adelaide shows up playing the same brand of high pressure footy that they’ve become known for across the year.
The retiring Taylor Walker arrives in good nick after booting a bag in the final game of the regular season against the Giants, while Callum Ah Chee is a handy replacement for the injured Zac Taylor.
The Dogs were great last week, but keep in mind they could have lost that game if Tim Membrey kicked straight on the siren.
With question marks still on their back line – a flaw the Crows exposed when they kicked 19 goals against the Dogs in Round 14 – this could be where the Dogs season comes to a close.
Prediction: Crows to Cover the Line (-13.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Crows to Win & Over 167.5 Total Points @ $2.70
Player Pick: Josh Rachele 2+ Goals @ $2.20