Premier League Week 1 is not the time to fall in love with every short-priced favourite, but there are already a few match-ups where the football case is hard to ignore.
Arsenal should have the ball, territory and most of the clean attacking looks here.
Coventry will need to stay compact, survive the early pressure and make set pieces count, but the bigger question is whether Arsenal’s altered defensive group can keep the game properly controlled with William Saliba out.
If the Gunners name a settled back line, this has the feel of an Arsenal-led match from the first whistle.
Manchester United should create the better field position, but this is not a spot to blindly back an opening-weekend away favourite at a short quote.
Hull can make the contest messy through direct play, second balls and set pieces.
The clean-sheet angle works only if United name their preferred defensive core; a makeshift back line would make Hull much more live to nick one.
A first league game at the new stadium brings obvious energy, but that alone does not make Everton FC a bet.
Crystal Palace under Pierre Sage should be organised, comfortable without the ball and capable of making this a tactical scrap rather than a grand opening-party performance.
The draw is not without appeal, while a low-scoring game is plausible, but there is not enough separation to force it.
This shapes as a competitive opener between two sides who will see a result as important rather than a chance to throw caution away.
Ipswich should feed off the home crowd, while Sunderland are likely to keep their structure and make the match difficult to open up.
Unless an early goal changes the script, chances may come at a premium.
Forest at the City Ground are built to make visitors uncomfortable.
Their physicality, set-piece threat and ability to turn the match into a scrap suit this fixture, particularly against a Leeds side facing a tough away opening.
Leeds have enough quality to make a straight home result less appealing, but Forest avoiding defeat is the more measured read.
There is a clear route to chances at both ends.
Brentford will fancy their transition moments and set pieces, while Tottenham Hotspur’s Roberto De Zerbi setup should bring plenty of possession and attacking intent, along with a little risk when moves break down.
If both sides name their first-choice attacking options, this looks more like an exchange of chances than a cagey opener.
The obvious read is goals: Brighton’s style can create an open contest and Aston Villa have enough attacking quality to hurt anyone.
But Villa’s returning-player management is a major variable, and that makes it hard to be certain how aggressive or settled they will be from the start.
The football case is there, but the team-news risk is doing too much work.
Manchester City have the stronger squad and the home advantage, but this is still Enzo Maresca’s first competitive league match in charge.
Bournemouth will look to be brave enough to exploit any early uncertainty, particularly if City’s midfield balance is not settled.
Rodri’s departure is a key out, though City should still have enough control and quality to get the job done.
St James’ Park is rarely a quiet assignment and Newcastle United should be on the front foot early.
Liverpool have the attacking quality to play through that pressure, but they may also leave transition opportunities for the home side.
This is one to reassess when the attacks are confirmed, yet the match-up points towards both teams finding a way onto the scoresheet.
Chelsea’s attacking ceiling is the difference-maker if Xabi Alonso names a properly front-foot side.
Fulham are usually organised at Craven Cottage and will not make life simple, but Chelsea should have enough quality between the lines and in wide areas to generate repeat chances.
The concern is selection: this angle needs Chelsea’s key attacking pieces to start.
