Three rounds remain between now and finals and there is no room for error atop the NRL ladder.
Round 25’s highlights include two crucial Saturday afternoon games, starting with the Knights and Manly, before the Wahs head to Sydney for a Top 8 showdown with the Bunnies.
With plenty to unpack, Oscar Pannifex breaks down all eight games and finds some value in his Round 25 Preview below!
Ivan Cleary made the big decision a few weeks ago to drop Blaize Talagi and iron out a few kinks before the finals. Now staring down the barrel of three-straight losses, Penrith mightn’t have the luxury of worrying about the finer details as they’ve done in previous years.
They get a winnable matchup against a wounded Melbourne side here, but that’s not to say the Storm are easy beats at this point of the season.
Craig Bellamy is in fairly unchartered waters as coach of a club out of finals contention with four rounds to play. Given how they’ve trended throughout a difficult year, I like them to get up for a big game and make this a contest.
Prediction: Melbourne Storm to Cover the Line (+8.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Tryscorer: Harry Grant @ $4.40
Ricky’s Raiders completed a classic ambush in Cronulla on Saturday after threatening to do the same to Newcastle a week earlier. Joseph Tapine was immense through the middle-third while Ethan Sanders again showed his qualities as a long-term, first-grade halfback.
It’s the involvements of Owen Pattie in the back-half of the season however that’s truly changed Canberra trajectory. He’s a triple threat (run, pass, kick) with the ball and like Sanders is playing beyond his years as an organising and reactive dummy-half.
I like Pattie to cause Brisbane some issues around the ruck here given how Wayde Egan toyed with the Broncos middles last week.
Without Reece Walsh to command defensive attention at the back, the pressure will be on Ezra Mam and Thomas Duffy to create with the ball. It’s a likely pairing that have had their moments in recent weeks, but they mightn’t have the platform to play off here.
Prediction: Canberra Raiders to Win @ $1.35
Anytime Tryscorer: Matty Nicholson @ $4.40
After conceding a 24-point lead the week before, Redcliffe again started slowly against Manly before finishing fast.
Their ill-discipline in both opening stages in the past fortnight has left an enormous amount of pressure on their bench to turn the tide. The Dolphins enjoy tremendous impact from their forward rotation but they can’t afford these poor starts in September.
Parramatta are making a habit of threatening upsets while rival clubs jostle for a spot in the finals and they can do the same here if Redcliffe’s illdiscipline remains.
The best version of this Dolphins side wins this in a white-wash though.
Prediction: Dolphins 13+ @ $1.83
Anytime Tryscorer: Herbie Farnworth @ $2.05, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki @ $4.40
While the results don’t read nicely for Kieran Foran right now, the Sea Eagles’ effort in NRL Round 24 will have gone a long way to appeasing Manly fans.
Foran has simply run out of troops to call upon through the middle of the field and it’s telling in the back end of halves. They put up a hell of a fight early against Redcliffe last week but just couldn’t go with them once the Dolphins forwards rotated and fatigue set in.
Newcastle are running a little thin themselves but continue to buck the trend as a club winning without a full complement of forwards. Kalyn Ponga is in a rich vein of form and his outside backs are benefiting most right now as he plays the distributor on either edge.
The Knights to keep rolling on.
Prediction: Newcastle Knights 1-12 @ $2.95
Anytime Tryscorer: Haumole Olakau’atu @ $3.05, Greg Marzhew @ $1.65
South Sydney’s defence was superb last week to absorb a mountain of pressure in the opening stages v Canterbury. To then march down the field and immediately cash in themselves through David Fifita summed up the Rabbitohs dominance in NRL Round 24; the best performance we’ve seen from Wayne Bennett’s men in a while.
The timing couldn’t be better here given New Zealand have played a similar brand of footy – only they’ve done it for the length of the regular season.
All of a sudden one of the premiership heavyweights, we get to see how the Wahs handle the pressure of expectation here, and for the next few weeks. The loss of Luke Metcalf (injured) and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (suspended) comes at a difficult time for New Zealand and I like Souths to take their chances and make this interesting.
Prediction: South Sydney Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Tryscorer: Alex Johnston @ $1.83, Alex Johnston to Score 2 Tries or More @ $3.60
St George have won two-straight for the first time this year thanks largely to the involvements of Lyhkan King-Togia who has managed to execute on a few sharp looks down that Dragons left edge.
Hamish Stewart runs a mean line off his halfback and cashed in doing exactly that last week while it’s no coincidence Tyrell Sloan is enjoying a little more room to move outside a productive five-eighth.
That preferred left edge lines up against a Bulldogs right edge that has been spotted up a few times this season – including last week against the Bunnies. A lot of the damage South Sydney caused occurred on the far side of the field before swinging back to the left to put Cody Walker at a disrupted defensive line.
I’m looking for St George to take a similar approach through King-Togia here.
Prediction: St George-Illawarra Dragons to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90
Anytime Tryscorer: Tyrell Sloan @ $2.02
Of all the players Cronulla couldn’t afford to lose right now, it was lead playmaker Braydon Trindall. We saw the effect his absence had on this otherwise-lethal Sharks attack and we’ve been here before with Nicho Hynes as the main man; how the Sharks respond here will be crucial but I can’t back them with my own money – even against the Titans.
If Lachlan Ilias can play conductor and put Jayden Cambell into more positive involvements here like he did last week, I like the Gold Coast to cause an upset.
Too much of what Cronulla have done well this year has come through Trindall and they need him back to be a genuine feature in the finals.
Prediction: Gold Coast Titans to Cover the Line (+6.5) @ $1.90,
Anytime Trsycorer: AJ Brimson @ $3.60
Easts record against Melbourne & Penrith is well documented at this point but they’ve now beaten both in the past five weeks on their way to a Minor Premiership placing.
There’s been a tangible shift in gears from the Roosters over the past month or so – grinding wins over fellow finals contenders and cricket scores against the lesser clubs – as Trent Robinson preps his side for finals.
With Daly Cherry-Evans’ announcement adding to the narrative of Easts 2026 campaign, I like he and the Chooks to rev the engines again here like they did to North Queensland a few weeks back.
Wests might match them early through the middle but expect Easts to make a target of Terrell May once fatigue sets in, shrinking the defensive line and finding spaces out wide from there.
Prediction: Sydney Roosters 13+ @ $1.26
Anytime Tryscorer: James Tedesco @ $1.77, Sam Walker @ $2.50, Reece Robson @ $5
