With the ladder locked and finals seeding officially set, the focus turns to the AFL’s inaugural Wild Card Weekend with two evenly matched, All-Melbourne affairs set to play out.
The MCG comes to life on Friday night for a must-see clash between the feisty Bulldogs and the heavily wounded Magpies, before the Dees look to right last week’s wrongs and down Carlton on Saturday night – right back on footy’s hallowed turf.
There’s not much separating each team in their respective markets, so for a comprehensive look at both games, check out our AFL Wild Card Preview right here!
The first Wild Card clash shapes as a tight tussle with recent encounters between the Dogs and Collingwood going right down to the wire.
The Dogs prevailed by five points when they last met Collingwood in Round 12, although there’s plenty to be said about the Pies’ fourth quarter comeback that saw them erase a three-goal deficit and nearly pull off a come-from-behind win.
Injuries have taken a large toll on these two clubs ever since, and the Dogs might be licking their lips after Craig McRae made the risky decision to play a full squad featuring veteran Scott Pendlebury and defensive lynchpin Brayden Maynard in the loss to Brisbane last week.
The two Collingwood superstars suffered serious injuries that have ruled them out for this clash, while the Dogs might have some positive news (finally) with Tim English a chance at returning to the ruck.
Looking ahead, the obvious argument is that the Pies are better suited to playing at the MCG, but they’ll have their work cut out against an in-form Dogs team that could be a major dark horse after drawing with Carlton and then going on to defeat Melbourne over the last fortnight.
As is always the case, the Dogs kicking straight in front of goal could mean the difference between an extended season or a holiday, particularly for a team that has ranked bottom half in points all year.
At the same time, the Dogs have been great around the clearances and much better at limiting turnover – two areas that cost the Pies last week against the reigning premiers.
Inside 50 entries have also proven hard to come by for both clubs across the year, lending itself to a low-scoring game.
Again, Aaron Naughton’s fitness could be key for the Dogs – and you can’t discount a McRae coaching masterclass – but with the Pies licking their wounds, the price on offer for the Bulldogs is hard to ignore.
Prediction: Bulldogs to Win @ $2.00
Value: Bulldogs to Win & Under 169.5 Total Points @ $3.70
Player Pick: Ed Richards 28+ Disposals @ $1.85
Another tough game to try and tip with recent history suggesting it could be decided by a goal either way.
The Dees downed the Blues by 23 points when they met in late March, but it’s worth noting the previous four clashes between these two sides were all decided by six points or fewer.
Carlton is clearly a much different side to the one the Dees faced earlier in the season, and with a five-game unbeaten run still intact heading into the finals, the sky might be the limit for newly appointed coach, Josh Fraser.
Melbourne have been the big overachievers this season, but an exit on Saturday night would probably have Stephen King feeling like his side still fell short of their ceiling.
Further proving that a week in footy is a long time, last week’s defeat to the Bulldogs has many questioning the legitimacy of Melbourne’s finals chances, especially with Jacob van Rooyen still missing from the forward line for another two weeks.
Injuries around Jake Lever have also cast some doubt around Melbourne’s ability to defend, which they did exceptionally well when they last met the Blues, holding them to 13 fewer inside 50 entries.
The recent form of Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, and Jagga Smith help swing the odds in favour of the Blues, while the very best of Harry McKay would make Carlton hard to beat.
It’s been a fairytale-like season for Melbourne in many regards, but with a few hiccups against finals contenders over the last two and a half months, the Blues get the edge in this one.
Prediction: Carlton to Win @ $1.73
Value: Carlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Player Pick: Harry McKay 2+ Goals @ $1.70