Two weeks stand between now and finals footy, and it’s officially ‘put up’ or ‘shut up’ time for clubs like St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs.
Round 23 might also have fans thinking finals have come early, starting with the Dockers and Crows in action on Friday night, before the ‘G comes to life on Saturday for a key rivalry game between the Hawks and Pies.
There’s just as much at stake on Sunday back under the roof at Marvel for Dogs v Blues, so let’s get stuck into all nine games across the weekend!
Fremantle vs Adelaide Crows Predictions
Huge Top 4 implications ahead on Friday night for not only the Crows, but also keen observers like Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Freo lost one of the games of the year last week against Melbourne but have been a steady bounce back bet all season, posting a clean 4-0 record at the line.
The Crows have been less trustworthy in recent weeks, losing to the Pies three weeks ago before a very tight scare against wooden spoon favourites Richmond last Sunday.
Taylor Walker’s midweek retirement announcement might stir up some emotion, but this is still a monster ask against a Freo outfit that has outscored opponents by an average score of 38 points on their home deck.
Prediction: Fremantle to Cover (-22.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Freo 40+ @ $2.80
Richmond vs St Kilda Predictions
Huge Top 4 implications ahead on Friday night for not only the Crows, but also keen observers like Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Freo lost one of the games of the year last week against Melbourne but have been a steady bounce back bet all season, posting a clean 4-0 record at the line.
The Crows have been less trustworthy in recent weeks, losing to the Pies three weeks ago before a very tight scare against wooden spoon favourites Richmond last Sunday.
Taylor Walker’s midweek retirement announcement might stir up some emotion, but this is still a monster ask against a Freo outfit that has outscored opponents by an average score of 38 points on their home deck.
Prediction: Fremantle to Cover (-22.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Freo 40+ @ $2.80
North Melbourne vs Geelong Cats Predictions
Round 15, 2015 was the last time North managed a win over the Cats, and if their Round 8 result earlier this year was anything to go by, this should be a comfortable afternoon for Chris Scott’s side.
The Cats were equally impressive last week against bottom dwellers Essendon, leading by eight goals at half time and holding the Dons to just one goal in the final term.
Question marks around Geelong’s legitimacy as a premiership threat remain justified, but there’s no getting around both Oliver Henry and Oliver Dempsey’s recent goal-kicking form, or Bailey Smith’s recent exploits through the midfield.
North Melbourne silenced some of their own critics in a four-goal defeat against the Western Bulldogs last week, but the fact they own only two wins against current Top 10 sides remains alarming.
Prediction: Geelong 1-39 @2.15
Value: Geelong to Win & Over the Total
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns Predictions
Aside from a sloppy first quarter, the reigning premiers looked back to their very best last week in a 67-point mauling over Hawthorn.
Harris Andrews played one of his best games of the season, limiting Hawthorn’s forwards to single digit touches through the first half, while Logan Morris and Kai Lohmann got to work down the other end.
The Suns snapped their long losing skid with a hardy victory over the Giants, but this is another step up in class against a rival that has held their number for a couple of seasons now.
Conceding goals from centre clearances has been the biggest issue for the Gold Coast all year, and this shapes as another stern test against a Lions outfit that leads the league in that same category.
Prediction: Lions to Cover (-32.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Lions 40+ @ $2.15
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Predictions
We’re on Scott Pendlebury and Jordan de Goey watch for this monster clash between 3rd and 8th.
The Pies cut it fine last week before Nick Daicos’ class took over in Perth, while the Hawks are looking to put last week’s Gabba horror show behind them, with Sam Mitchell potentially set to make some big selection calls on Thursday.
The Hawks have played two questionable games of footy in as many weeks and are struggling to impact the scoreboard like they did earlier in the season. Their skills were sorely lacking against the Lions, and there needs to be some serious discussions around the forward line.
This should be a ripping game of footy with both sides evenly matched, and you could argue the Hawks are a little too short in betting.
The Pies probably don’t have the cattle to shutdown Nick Watson and Jack Gunston like the Lions did, but the inclusion of deGoey, plus Hawthorn’s turnover and goal-kicking woes of late, could make this a very close contest.
Prediction: Collingwood to Cover (+19.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Collingwood to Win @ $3.20
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne Predictions
We’re on Scott Pendlebury and Jordan de Goey watch for this monster clash between 3rd and 8th.
The Pies cut it fine last week before Nick Daicos’ class took over in Perth, while the Hawks are looking to put last week’s Gabba horror show behind them, with Sam Mitchell potentially set to make some big selection calls on Thursday.
The Hawks have played two questionable games of footy in as many weeks and are struggling to impact the scoreboard like they did earlier in the season. Their skills were sorely lacking against the Lions, and there needs to be some serious discussions around the forward line.
This should be a ripping game of footy with both sides evenly matched, and you could argue the Hawks are a little too short in betting.
The Pies probably don’t have the cattle to shutdown Nick Watson and Jack Gunston like the Lions did, but the inclusion of deGoey, plus Hawthorn’s turnover and goal-kicking woes of late, could make this a very close contest.
Prediction: Collingwood to Cover (+19.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Collingwood to Win @ $3.20
GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles Predictions
A Wild Card spot isn’t entirely out of the question for the Giants, but they’ll need to win out, and hope results go their way from here.
A game in hand against West Coast bodes well on their home deck, but the Eagles have proven a tough out in recent encounters with the Western Bulldogs, Richmond, and Collingwood.
Errant goal kicking has been at the forefront of their results, but a win over the next two weeks could be on the cards with things finally trending in the right direction for Andrew McQualter’s side.
For GWS, this is a revenge game after dropping points to West Coast back in Round 10, a game that featured several momentum changes, before a pressure-packed final term.
The Giants blew a 17-point lead in the end and have shown all season an inability to win all four quarters. Expect nothing different in this one.
Prediction: Either Team to Win By Less Than 24.5 Points @ $2.55
Value: West Coast Eagles to Win @ $4.80
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Predictions
We should have a packed house under the lid at Marvel on Sunday for this 9th vs 10th blockbuster.
The Dogs were underwhelming and resembled everything but a finals team in last week’s 23-point defeat to North Melbourne, while the Blues put St Kilda to the sword nice and early in a 44-point demolition job.
Injuries are again the storyline at the kennel with Tim English suffering a knee injury last week, which doesn’t bode well against a Blues team that has been one of the best at controlling possession and limiting turnover.
Those two improvements under Josh Fraser have made a massive difference when it comes to ball movement and increasing scoring chances, and given the Dogs forward line has been misfiring for weeks, this shapes as a very tough test.
Prediction: Carlton to Win @ $1.72
Value: Carlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Essendon vs Sydney Swans Predictions
The Bombers might be nothing more than cannon fodder for a Swans outfit that has just about locked up second spot on the ladder.
Sydney still has question marks around its style of play, but roll in choc-full of confidence on the back of three blowout wins over GWS, St Kilda, and Port Adelaide.
The Bombers are still caught up in their coaching search and showing no signs of progression on the field, although it was nice to see Zach Merrett among the top disposal-getters last week against Geelong.
With Chad Warner in scintillating form and the Swans looking much-improved defensively over the last month though, this looks like another Sunday blowout in the making.
Prediction: Swans to Cover (-61.5 Points) @ $1.90