Three weeks’ worth of footy is all that stands between now and the finals, and it’s officially crunch time with a back log of teams vying for a spot in the Wild Card picture.
Round 22 gets off to a bang with the Dogs up against North with serious ladder implications at stake, while the same goes for Friday’s clash at the Gabba between the wounded Lions and Hawthorn.
Fast forward to Sunday, and we’ll be treated to another finals-like game when the Saints take on the Blues – a serious 10th vs 11th clash that could see one club miss out entirely.
The stakes only get higher from here, and our AFL Round 22 Predictions can be found below!
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Predictions
Another high-stakes game for North with their season quickly slipping away.
It was an admirable performance down in Tassie last week against Hawthorn, but there’s o getting around the fact the Roos were smacked around the centre clearances, which in turn saw North give up 61 inside 50 entries.
Nick Larkey’s form has come into question all season, while goal kicking was at the forefront of the Dogs’ loss last week in a 5.11 display against Fremantle.
The Dogs have some big injuries up forward with Cody Weightman and Aaron Naughton both sore, adding further intrigue to this clash as they fight to keep their spot inside the Wild Card picture.
Unlike last week, the Dogs should be able to play their usual attacking brand of footy though, as opposed to flooding the defensive 50 in effort to stop the Dockers.
North could jag an upset here if they win the stoppages like they did against Hawthorn and start fast like they did in the first term, but since they continue to struggle to play a full for quarters, it’s easy to lean the Dogs here with growing pressure on Alastair Clarkson.
Prediction: Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.20
Value: Bulldogs to Win & Under the Total
Player Pick: Cooper Trembath 2+ Goals
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Predictions
Far and away the game of the round with the Hawks looking to virtually sew up the 3rd spot on the ladder.
Brisbane, meanwhile, has been left fighting for its spot in the Top 6 after last week’s upset defeat to Carlton, the loss felt in more ways than one with Ryan Lester, Logan Morris, Keidean Coleman, and Hugh McCluggage all suffering injuries.
The Hawks survived a scare down in Tassie against a feisty North outfit that leapt out to an early lead, not unlike the one Hawthorn surrendered early to Melbourne several weeks earlier.
Slow starts have become a theme for Sam Mitchell’s side this season, but it helps when you can rely on individual moments of brilliance like Nick Watson’s third quarter display.
A packed house at the Gabba is expected for this one and if it’s anything like their last encounter, we should be in for a treat.
The back to back premiers ran out 10 point winners over the Hawks in Round 25, but with the Hawks likely to receive Karl Amon back and overall much healthier on the injury front, it’s easy to build a case for the brown and gold as they look to lock in a Top 4 finish.
Prediction: Hawks to Cover (+2.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Hawks to Win @ $2.00
Player Pick: Jack Ginnivan 2+ Goals
Melbourne vs Fremantle Predictions
The Dockers hit the road 12 points clear atop the ladder, and it will be fascinating to see what Justin Longmuir does from a selection standpoint over the coming weeks.
For Melbourne, there’s everything to play for with a Top 6 finish far from a guarantee, particularly on the back of a controversial win over the Gold Coast Suns last Sunday that saw them dominate the center of the ground.
The Dees have thrown a spanner in the works against some top quality opponents this year, but there’s no getting around the fact they were humbled against the Dockers in a 48-point defeat back in Round 2.
Freo got out to a six-goal lead at the end of the first term and never looked back, while Melbourne had no answer for Andrew Brayshaw and Shai Bolton through the center of the ground, the pair both amassing 30+ touches.
Again, on their day Melbourne look capable of challenging any top side, but their scoring has been hit and miss in recent weeks, while it’s hard to imagine Max Gawn bailing them out of trouble like he did last week against the Suns.
Providing the Dockers are interested in this game and up for the travel, they should be winning.
Prediction: Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.20
Value: Fremantle to Win & Under the Total
Player Pick: Shai Bolton 2+ Goals
Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Predictions
The season can’t end soon enough from a Port Adelaide perspective.
The Power suffered a fourth consecutive loss last week to the Giants, which comes as no surprise with so many troops on the shelf.
The Swans are well on track to finishing 2nd, but with the Hawks hot on their heels and Will Edwards suffering a season-ending injury last week, the Bloods can’t afford to overlook lesser opponents down the stretch.
Last week, Sydney sputtered out of the blocks against St Kilda before staging a second half fight back, led by the usual brilliance of Issac Heeney, Nick Blakey, and Chad Warner.
Defending and turnovers are still a problem, but it’s clear the Swans also possess the killer blow that teams like Freo and Brisbane rely upon when things get tough. If that’s present on Saturday, this could be blowout.
Prediction: Swans to Cover (-35.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Swans 40+ @ $2.00
Player Pick: Chad Warner 25+ Disposals
Geelong Cats vs Essendon Predictions
We could be in for another lopsided affair similar to when these two sides met exactly a year ago.
The Cats stormed to a 44-point win over the Dons at the Cattery in Round 22, and nothing about Essendon of late suggests the scoreline will be any slimmer on Saturday night.
The coaching search continues with little promise shown under Dean Solomon, while this is also an important spot for Geelong with a Top 4 finish still not off the table with games against North and Richmond to follow.
Averaging seven more scoring shots a game and six more goals in comparison to the Dons, this sets up as a nice percentage booster for Chris Scott and the Cats, particularly off an extra few days of rest.
Prediction: Geelong to Cover (-64.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Cats to Win & Over the Total
Player Pick: Oliver Dempsey 2+ Goals
Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Predictions
The Crows are flying high with four wins from their last five, and you could argue Matthew Nicks’ side might be the biggest dark horse heading towards finals, regardless of where they sit on the ladder.
Riley Thilthorpe has his fingerprints all over last week’s 72-point demolition over Essendon, outdone only by Izak Rankine, who finished with three goals, 23 touches, and in all likelihood, the bulk share of the Brownlow votes.
The Tigers, meanwhile, have every right to celebrate last week’s win over West Coast, although it has to be said, the Eagles probably could have won that game if they managed to kick straight.
It goes without saying that a trip to the Adelaide Oval is an entirely different beast, a venue the Tigers haven’t faced the Crows at since 2024.
Mind you, their last two games in Melbourne against Adelaide haven’t gone according to plan, losing both by an average score of 52 points.
Prediction: Crows to Cover (-57.5 Points) @ $1.90
Player Pick: Taylor Walker 3+ Goals
GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Suns Predictions
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Suns as they face the grim reality of having lost 10 straight games.
It was the same old story last week against Melbourne, as the Suns not only ran out of legs in the final term, they also gave up the bulk of their goals from centre clearances.
Something is clearly off in the coaching ranks on the Gold Coast, and while the future of Damien Hardwick potentially hangs in the balance, the Giants are simply trying to stage a late comeback and slide back into the Wild Card picture.
Snapping a two-game skid against Port was a step on the right direction last week, and there were encouraging signs on both ends of the ground with Jake Stringer among the goals, and Lachie Whitfield putting up big numbers in just about every major category.
Despite their recent record, the Suns are a much tougher out than Port though, particularly with Jed Walter and Matt Rowell starting to find some form.
With games against the Lions and Saints to follow, the Suns may not get a better chance to snap their lengthy horror run than this.
Prediction: Suns to Cover (+18.5 Points)
Value: Suns to Win @ $3.05
Player Pick: Matt Rowell 30+ Disposals
West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Predictions
The Pies head west with a few questions to answer on Sunday after a slow start saw them on the back foot early last week against the Cats.
Craig McRae’s side had no answers for Ollie Dempsey and Oliver Henry in the 25-point loss, and it will be fascinating to see what the Pies coach chooses to do on selection Thursday with a favourable game in hand against an out of sorts West Coast side.
As already mentioned, the Eagles’ goal kicking was woeful last week in the loss to the Tigers, a game this team really should be winning with Harley Reid doing everything he could to will his side over the line.
Regardless, the Pies have won four on the trot over West Coast dating back to 2022, but it’s worth noting their Round 11 meeting this year was decided by only 10 points.
The Eagles were much better by foot that day and actually won the clearances after leading by as many as 10 points at the main break.
Last week’s performance inspires little confidence, but maybe with a point to prove as they look to salvage something over the final month, there is a chance the Eagles give this a crack.
Prediction: West Coast to Cover (+22.5 Points) @ $1.90
Value: Quarter 1/2/3/4 Leader – Any Other Result @ $2.15
Player Pick: Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals
St Kilda vs Carlton Predictions
Should be close to a full house at Marvel on Sunday night for what shapes as an elimination final-like battle between 10th and 11th.
The Saints will have spent the bulk of the week reflecting on a game that got away last week against the Swans. Ross Lyon’s side held a four-goal lead at one point, only to give up 45 points in the final term with injuries to Jack Silvagni and Tom de Koning suffering injuries.
The Blues, on the other hand, have made it very hard for the Carlton board not to appoint Josh Fraser as the full time coach in 2027.
A rousing 76-point win over back to back premiers Brisbane put a cherry on top of the post Michael Voss era, and bigger things might be still to come with old names like Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh, as well as youngster Jagga Smith playing out of their skin.
Looking ahead, this shapes as a close battle from start to finish, but you have to wonder if the Saints have what it takes to deal with the inevitable momentum swings.
They were very good on the wing last week against Sydney but lacked the polish when it came time to finding targets inside 50, particularly when the Swans started to mount a comeback.
With Harry McKay finding form also in the front half for the Blues, Carlton get the edge.
Prediction: Carlton to Win @ $1.73
Value: Carlton 1-39 @ $2.35
Player Pick: Jack Higgins 2+ Goals