Two things are indisputably true:
- Linear TV is dying a slow but certain death because of social media, and
- Newscorp makes a profit mostly because of Fox News.
It’s the same thing with oil companies versus AI. AI companies haemorrhage cash and will probably never make a profit but their share prices will continue to rise on the promise of what they could be. Exxon just keeps on printing cash quarter after quarter, especially these days.
Collingwood is Exxon. They’re Fox News. They have been a full year older than the next oldest team over the last five games (Geelong) but they’re still getting it done. We can all see the cliff coming fast, but they’ve won six in a row including Thursday night’s win over Adelaide and are inside the top-10.
This is basically the season I expected the Pies to have in the aggregate, but this last six games and their ability, in particular, to score has me wondering if I need to reassess the Pies’ ceiling.
Can they win a final? Am I getting caught up in the moment?
But firstly, a look at how they play.
Without Darcy Moore for the rest of the year, who is a former footballer at this point with how infrequently he plays, the Pies are still a dominant defensive side. Across the season, they’re the third stingiest defence in footy by points per game giving up a little under 80 points. Over the last five games, a few other teams have cranked up their defences (particularly Melbourne), but the Pies have held steady at about 80 points per game given up.
While Billy Frampton has had a decent year, the Pies don’t have a lot of winners behind the ball defensively. Instead, they rely heavily on getting particularly Jeremy Howe but also Brayden Maynard and Dan Houston across to help other defenders. Over their last five, the Pies are seventh in intercepts with each of Houston, Howe, and Maynard over 5 intercept possessions. Steele Sidebottom’s return to half back for his career swansong has also worked out, as he’s had 4.8 himself over the last five.
While statistically it doesn’t bear out, it feels like the Pies basically never give up a defensive 1v1 (they give up the sixth most). A big part of that is likely the Collingwood pressure, which is astonishing at times, and means that even when they do give up a 1v1 inside 50, it’s a dirty one.
This Pies team defends with the whole team across the whole ground, and it makes them the best “sum of its parts” defence in the entire league.
That defence, which is truly elite, is the base for a non-traditional attacking game. Most players’ roles are so heavily coached in service of Nick Daicos.
This Top Gun style formula of footy where it’s a pure star vessel that somehow lifts everyone else is really working for Collingwood. The Pies are third in scoring over the last 5 with about 100 points per game and have now finally beaten a top-9 team in the Crows.
They score in a perfect way for the hard running Daicos to really dominate. If the Pies are Fox News, Daicos is Tucker Carlson from like 2015. He’s the man who makes it all go and who has shown that he can do it both on linear and then in new media as well.
The Pies are second over the last five in scores from turnover, but only 8th in front half scores. They’re third, however, in back half scores and are one of very few who get about as much scoring from their back half as they do their front half.
Their pressure leads generally to turnovers around defensive wing and suddenly the entire game shifts to “let’s start running so we can eventually handball it to Nick around 50” and then let him get it inside 50. It’s the Daicos Directive.
As a result, Daicos is averaging 17.4 handball receives, and 4.6 kicks inside 50 over the last five, both leading the AFL.
It’s working.
After an indifferent start to the year with his ball use, Daicos is back to his severely damaging best. He’s kicked six goals and had 11 score involvements per game over that period. He has been involved in 41% of Collingwood’s scores over the last five.
You combine the dominance of Daicos with the well-drilled nature of the rest of this side particularly in forward 50 ground ball situations where they always seem to have an extra handball or a loose man somewhere to fashion a shot, and you can see the path for Collingwood.
A dominant defence always works in finals and Daicos has proven himself to be basically untaggable other than by Oisin Mullin. That’s a good formula to win a wildcard game, maybe even a final, and still be a general pest to play this year.
Eventually the well is going to run dry. The people who turn on their TV and flip channels are going to die. But until then, especially if they get Lachie Neale, the Pies are going to remain a pest.