Through contentious send-offs and at-times baffling teamlist selections, the NSW Blues arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with a punchers chance at the 2026 State of Origin title.
Through contentious send offs and at-times baffling teamlist selections, the NSW Blues arrive at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night with a punchers chance at the 2026 State of Origin title.
Teamlist Talking Points
I suggested on the Neds NRL Unpopular Opinions Podcast last week that Laurie Daley has named his strongest side of the series, and I’m doubling down here.
Bradman Best and Stephen Crichton are big bodies in yardage and reliable defenders on either edge. Both have been here before and are proven performers at clubland and Origin, and both are named in their specialist positions for Game III.
‘Critta’ in particular has carried injuries throughout the 2026 regular season but comes into this week on the back of two starring games for the Bulldogs, albeit in the halves. He remains the best defensive centre in the NRL and will play a crucial role in containing Kalyn Ponga down his favoured left edge.
On the other side of the field, Brian To’o is an enormous omission by Daley but there’s enough evidence in Jack Bostock’s favour to at the very least reason with the decision.
Plenty has been made about To’o’s aerial deficiencies but his handling on the ground and in the ruck (five errors in two games) has contributed to some key issue areas for the Blues this series. In defence, the spaces between To’o and Kotoni Staggs were also spotted a few times by Kalyn Ponga on kick returns in Game I and perhaps Daley was looking to send a statement to his playing group by leaving the champion winger out for a decider.
Or, perhaps it’s simply about rewarding the form of Bostock who has been undeniable since coming back from injury for Redcliffe. Currently averaging 160 run metres per game, NSW don’t lose a whole lot in yardage with To’o out and Bostock in, while his defensive involvements on the ground and in the air are consistently sound in clubland.
With plenty of reps in first-grade on the left wing, Bostock is a likely inclusion for the Blues despite the man he replaces on Wednesday night.
Elsewhere, Liam Martin picks himself in a return to the Blues right edge and will relish the job asked of Haumole Olakau’atu and Dylan Lucas in Games I & 2. Expect Martin to lead the kick chase and line speed all night, crowding Selwyn Cobbo on kick returns and harassing Cameron Munster or Ponga anytime QLD look left.
In a game filled with highlight reel players and moments, the work of Martin might just end up being the difference for NSW in this one.
As per usual, QLD Coach Billy Slater hasn’t thrown too many curveballs with his selections for Game III.
Jeremiah Nanai made a compelling return from injury two weeks ago and has played himself back into a Maroons jersey here. His gamebreaking ability alongside Reece Walsh on QLD’s extended bench is just another luxury at Slater’s disposal should the Maroons need points in the back end.
Also on the bench, not enough has been made of Lindsay Collins’ absence; ruled out under HIA protocols to leave an enormous hole in this QLD forward rotation. Pat Carrigan is in elite company as one of the best middle forwards in the game but there’s a lot of pressure on him to match the productivity of Collins – on both sides of the ball – without any recent game time under his belt.
Knowing Carrigan, this could all be set up for an unlikely Man of the Match performance off the bench. On paper though, Collins’s absence is a factor NSW can take advantage of once fatigue sets in around the ruck.
Deciding Factors – NSW Blues
One of the more telling signs in the makeup of NSW’s bench is the inclusion of only one genuine middle (Addin Fonua-Blake). While there’s some merit to the idea of Haumole Olakau’atu or Liam Martin spotting up in the middle if required, the selections suggest to me that we may finally see Cameron Murray start at lock and Payne Haas play out big minutes at prop.
The combination of Murray’s legspeed and Haas’ ability to bend the line is nightmare fuel for QLD defenders.
If Murray can get between defenders and promote a quick play-the-ball in yardage, Haas will be allowed to get over the advantage line and run amok at a retreating defence. That one-two punch can be the trigger for a NSW shot on the edges, particularly if Murray is there to back it up at pivot while Nathan Cleary and Mitch Moses play a little wider in the second-layer.
Too often in Games I & II we saw Isaah Yeo or Cleary drop a settler back towards the ruck after a halfbreak, playing to a point instead of playing shot-for-shot. Perhaps James Tedesco’s tendency to play predominantly through the middle-third was a factor there, too.
Regardless, Murray’s speed and width of pass from first-receiver can be a point of difference for a NSW attack looking to ask a few more questions on the edges in the decider.
If so, any Blues attacking action will likely start with a positive yardage involvement from Murray and/or Haas, a few tackles earlier.
Deciding Factors – QLD Maroons
The productivity of Selwyn Cobbo on kick returns has had an undeniable flow-on effect to QLD’s yardage game so far this series. He has consistently bent the line or generated ruck speed early in sets but will come up against a new-look and purpose-built NSW right edge defensive unit on Wednesday night.
If history is any indicator, Billy Slater will have a plan to combat NSW’s adjustments and get the most out of his back five in exit sets. Perhaps we see QLD shift the ball a little more often on kick returns to force the Blues line to travel and test their kick chase on the far side?
Assuming Slater’s Maroons do carry out of their own end cleanly, the stage is set for Sam Walker to cap off a stellar Origin Series debut alongside a star-studded, running spine.
The on-the-ball threats of Harry Grant, Cameron Munster and Ponga have created the perfect storm for Walker to pick his moments, play to his strengths and execute; try involvements for Trent Loiero and Cobbo (with that scrum play) in Game II are good examples.
Walker’s kicking game in particular has been a strength of QLD’s attack this series, mainly along the ground for Robert Toia or Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow in good-ball.
With the inclusion of Jeremiah Nani on Wednesday night though, we should expect to see Walker send a few more sky-ward on fifth tackle (or maybe earlier). NSW’s tall winger approach lends itself to this theory; QLD don’t have the vertical advantage on the wings this week but have had success in the past kicking for backrowers jumping over defending halves…
Prediction
While every analytical bone in my body says QLD will win this one comfortably, rugby league is a funny game…
Laurie Daley hasn’t seemed fazed by any of the criticism throughout his tenure as NSW Head Coach but some of his comments leading into this game suggested otherwise.
Can the Blues hope for a fairy tale finish for one of their favourite sons? I’m happy to take the value in a close one but certainly won’t be surprised if the Maroons close out the series on home soil.
Prediction: New South Wales Blues 1-12, Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Try Scorer
Man of the Match:Payne Haas $15, Cam Murray $36
Wally Lewis Medallist:Nathan Cleary $4, Selwyn Cobbo $5.50, Harry Grant $23