2026 AFL Round 19 Tips & Predictions

Another must-see Thursday blockbuster as the Cats suddenly find themselves in must-win territory. 

A three-game free-fall has been compounded even further by the shoulder injury to star forward Jeremy Cameron, and there are further concerns for important role players like Tanner Bruhn and Jack Henry.  

The Saints, meanwhile, are still coping without star Tom de Koning, and his absence could be felt even further this week against a Geelong team that ranks towards the bottom of the league in hit outs.  

We’ve seen Chris Scott get his side up before when the chips are down, but Geelong’s composure has been seriously off in recent weeks – losing the clearances in a big way during last week’s blown fourth quarter against the Giants.  

The Saints haven’t set the world on fire during their recent two-game winning streak, but their pressure and ability to dominate possession could be the difference in this one. 

Prediction: St Kilda to Cover (+12.5 Points) @ $1.90 

Value: St Kilda to Win @ $2.50 

Player Pick: Jack Higgins 2+ Goals @ $1.90 

The Swans were found out again last week against Freo, coughing the ball up 66 times and paying a hefty price in transition.  

Fittingly, the Crows are the second-worst team when it comes to turnovers this year, so everything points to a high-scoring goal-fest on Friday night with more than just bragging rights on the line.  

The Swans are a perfect 4-0 at the SCG this year, but there’s every chance Dean Cox has had this game circled on his calendar after Sydney suffered a demoralizing 90-point loss here against the Crows in Round 12 last year.  

 The addition of Callum Ah Chee made a huge difference to Adelaide’s attack last week in the win over the Gold Coast, and there’s an argument to be made that the Crows might be peaking at just the right time.  

With a solid 5-1 record as the away underdog to their name over the last 12 months, the two-goal head start for Matthew Nicks’ side is worth taking with Adelaide looking much sharper defensively over the last month or so. 

Prediction: Crows to Cover (+12.5 Points) @ $1.90 

Value: Crows to Win @ $2.50 

Player Pick: Josh Rachele 2+ Goals @ $2.15 

A last-ditch finals run looks to be off the table at Port Adelaide due to some big injury concerns. 

Zak Butters could have played his last game with the club after picking up a syndesmosis injury in the loss to the Saints, while Mitch Georgiades will be missing from this one due to a concussion. 

The Dockers were back to their brilliant best last week in a statement win at home over Sydney, and now eight points clear atop the table, it will be fascinating to see if Justin Longmuir looks to rest some of his stars over the coming weeks. 

Freo spent a solid fortnight bunkered down in Adelaide across rounds 4 and 5, walking away with a pair of narrow wins over the Crows and Pies. We saw them fail to turn up for a tough road trip two weeks ago to face the resurgent Giants in Canberra, but with a full squad to pick from, it’s hard to see them falling over in this one. 

Prediction: Fremantle to Win & Under 170.5 Total Points @ $1.95 

Value: Fremantle to Win By 40-59 @ $3.50 

Player Pick: Josh Treacy 3+ Goals @ $1.88 

Another must-have game for the Roos after suffering a second consecutive loss to the Pies last week, placing further pressure on Alastair Clarkson’s side to respond with any faint hope of a Wild Card berth quickly fading. 

As we’ve seen for most of the year, North put up a good fight despite trailing for the entirety, simply failing to match Collingwood’s late pressure in the final term when the Pies controlled the possession and territory battle. 

The Dees arrive looking to return to the Top 4 after putting away Richmond by seven goals, and their class and experience could be the difference maker it what figures to be a feisty battle under the roof at Marvel. 

Melbourne’s ability to dominate the clearances and turn those wins into inside 50 entries has been phenomenal all year, while they’ve also been one of the better sides at scoring off turnover. 

This is the type of game North would love to have George Wardlaw available for, but unless they can quickly find some fourth quarter poise, this shapes as another heartbreaker. 

Prediction: Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.20  

Value: Melbourne Lead at Every Quarter @ $2.25 

Player Pick: Jacob van Rooyen 3+ Goals @ $2.65 

We should see something close to a full house at the ‘G after last Saturday’s blockbuster between the Hawks and Blues was dampened due to the weather. 

Riding a four-game purple patch, Collingwood are suddenly the hottest team in the competition, while the Blues will be hoping to make up for last week’s nine-goal drubbing that was far and away their worst performance since Josh Fraser took over.  

Recent history suggests this one could be a close, low-scoring affair, but there are a few concerns for Collingwood defensively with Jeremy Howe and Lachie Schultz picking up minor injuries last week. 

Fortunately, Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos is fit and healthy. Collingwood’s star midfielder has collected 36 and 39 disposals respectively over his last two games against the Blues, while Carlton’s suspect back line was placed under enormous strain with both Dan McStay and Jamie Elliott enjoying their spoils of the goals.  

Collingwood are at their most dangerous when they control possession and ramp up the pressure in the forward half of the ground, and while the Blues have been much-improved over the last two months, it’s hard to read too much into a stockpile of wins against the likes of Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond. 

Prediction: Collingwood to Win @ $1.70 

Value: Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.25 

Player Pick: Jordan de Goey 2+ Goals @ $2.02 

The reigning premiers have roared all the way back to their absolute best, rattling off 14 goal win over the Bombers last week to keep their Top 2 chances alive.  

Another percentage booster could be on the horizon this week against the Eagles in Perth, a side that has taken somewhat of a backward step after showing a glimpse of promise over the opening six weeks.  

The potential inclusion of Oscar Allen is a nice little narrative to follow as he looks to face his former side, but even without him, the Lions are loaded with depth and superstar talent.  

Role players like Bruce Reville and Ty Gallup were instrumental in last week’s demolition over the Dons, while the usual suspects like Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft remain in career-best form. 

All up, tough afternoon ahead if you’re an Eagles fan.  

Prediction: Lions to Win & Over 169.5 Total Points @ $1.94 

Value: Lions to Win By 60-79 Points @ $4.25 

Player Pick: Harley Reid 25+ Disposals @ $1.88 

The first of what could be a one-sided Sunday of games sees struggling Richmond up against the Hawks. 

Hawthorn has been a frustrating team to get a read on for most of the year, but it can’t be said enough what the inclusion Jarman Impey meant in last week’s blowout win over the Blues. 

Nick Watson is the next name to keep an eye on after the club took a cautious approach to his return from a hamstring injury last week, while Josh Weddle is also back from suspension – a timely in now that Karl Amon is off for knee surgery. 

The Tigers have shown flashes of the future in recent outings against North and Carlton, but their recent track record against the Hawks has seen them lose their last three encounters by an average of nine goals.  

Prediction: Hawthorn to Cover (-51.5 Points) @ $1.90 

Value: Hawthorn to Win & Over the Total @ $1.88 

Player Pick: Jack Ginnivan 3+ Goals @ $4.80 

Suns coach Damien Hardwick has already conceded that his side probably won’t play finals this year, although mathematically there is still a chance if they can take care of business at home against the Dogs. 

With these two sides squaring off in Darwin over the last few seasons, the Bulldogs haven’t visited the Gold Coast since 2021, a game they won by 11 points to go with 36 touches from Marcus Bontempelli.  

The Suns have enough weapons through the middle of the ground to combat the Brownlow frontrunner, but as we’ve seen right through the season, playing four quarters and setting up defensively has been an enormous challenge.  

With plenty of talk going on off the field and the Suns struggling mightily to not only win clearances, but also keep their opponents off the scoreboard, the price on offer for the Dogs to win outright is hard to go past. 

Prediction: Bulldogs to Win @ $2.10 

Value: Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.60 

Player Pick: Cody Weightman 2+ Goals @ $3.15 

Things have somehow gone from worse to deplorable at the Hangar. 

The Bombers suffered a humiliating 90-point defeat at the Gabba last Sunday, and things aren’t about to get any easier with the red-hot Giants coming to town.  

To their credit, the Dons showed some late fight kicking seven goals, although it’s fair to say Brisbane probably put the cue in the rack. 

The Giants, meanwhile, handed Geelong a shock 13-point loss thanks to a monster day out from Clayton Oliver and Toby Greene. 

Former Essendon forward Jake Stringer is one to keep an eye on this clash, but with the effort level and body language of key leaders like Andrew McGrath and Zach Merrett really beginning to show, the Bombers could be on the backfoot early if they don’t commit to taking the game on. 

Prediction: Giants 40+ @ $1.82 

Value: Giants to Win & Over 177.5 Total Points @ $2.02 

Player Pick: Jake Stringer 3+ Goals @ $1.77