As I’m writing this in Melbourne, it’s bloody cold.
Over the last five weeks, the AFL is scoring three fewer points per team per game than across the whole season.
Even with a couple of bangers last weekend, we’re officially in the dog days of the season, and a few of the teams that we expected to be good or goodish heading into the season are in a rut.
Everyone reading this, and the fella writing it, have all been in ruts before – whether they be personal or in relationships.
Sometimes, the rut is terminal to the relationship. Other times, your partner just needs to dress up like a cop and you need to get arrested for being a very bad boy.
There are four teams that we expected to be pretty good that are either currently in ruts or just starting to work their way out of them: Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Geelong.
Which of them, if any, are terminal?
Before we get into it, I just want to note that you could include Gold Coast on that list as well but I wrote about them earlier this week so they’re exempt. If I had to place them somewhere, I’d put them in the girls trip category where they could go either way.
“I really need a massage Mr Masseuse. Can you fit me in?”
Of the good teams in ruts that I listed, Geelong is the one that just needs to spice it up a bit.
The concern is that over the last two weeks, they’ve scored fewer than 100 points in consecutive weeks for the first time this season.
Against Adelaide, a big part of the issue was their persistence with Jeremy Cameron despite the fact that he did not appear to be able to grip the ball leading to the fifth worst game of his career by player rating. Against the Blues, on the other hand, the issue was more the lack of production from Dangerfield and Neale.
In general, Geelong looks a little lanky forward of centre and when Cameron can’t be the kind of hybrid key forward/forward flanker, their forward line doesn’t work.
But, even in both of their losses, they still generated 14 shots each off turnover and at least 12 from the forward half. They were also still in the forward half for about half of the game in each hit out.
That tells me that their structure gets them the wins they want, but they’re struggling to put finishing touches on those wins. As Dangerfield gets fitter, and as Cameron’s hand continues to mend, combined with their continued front half excellence and their still dominant running game, Geelong is still in good shape overall.
If they can find a way to add some extra spice, maybe using Ollie Dempsey as a genuine key forward or trying Ollie Wiltshire or Jack Martin through the middle occasionally it might help.
So yes, they’re in a bit of a rut. But it’s easy to see them climbing out of it.
Receiving a “book us into a nice dinner” after a two-week fight text
After three straight losses, one of which included copping the greatest third quarter in AFL history against GWS, Brisbane is back on the winners list.
A team like GWS was always going to be hard for Brisbane to play because, this season, they have been abominable at stopping ball movement and the Giants only want to kick ball movement goals.
Heading into the game against Gold Coast, they were 17th at stopping the ball going from D50 to a score.
But it just didn’t feel like that could possibly persist all season long. It was like those fights you have with your partner where one day, even if it’s not fully resolved, it’s at least over for now.
Against Gold Coast, that run was over.
The Lions finally cranked up their pressure game and their behind the ball structure, aided by a healthier looking Harris Andrews, and kept the ball in their front half for about 57% of the game. They also held the Suns to their second worst game for the year at taking the ball from D50 to F50.
Crucially as well, the Lions were +15 in tackles while pretty much breaking even in disposals. Saturday showed a Lions team that got a rocket put under them after sleeping on the couch for a while and is ready to be better. The question is whether it lasts.
Offence hasn’t been a problem all season for Brisbane, and if they can get the other side of their game going, their rut will be a thing of the past.
“I’m going on a trip. You’re not coming.”
Hoo boy are we teetering!
The trip can go one of two ways. Either they remember how much they love you, or they remember how much they don’t. That’s where I feel Hawthorn is right now.
After having lost three of their last five, including their most recent loss to an ailing Western Bulldogs where they started talking like premiers at half time, the Hawks look in a bit of trouble.
Similarly, while James Sicily is having a resurgent year, this back line goes with Tom Barrass. When he plays, they’re good back there.
When he doesn’t, they aren’t.
Given their still strong ground ball, ball movement, and time in forward half numbers I’d typically not be concerned about the Hawks, especially given Will Day has given them some much needed burst from midfield.
But it seems to me that the Hawks can have all the great underlying metrics they want. Their problem is that they have two key structural pieces that they need to be fit and firing to be true contenders. And both are currently injured and over 30.
Both Gunston and Barrass are on trips, and what they’ll be like when they return is uncertain.
“We need to talk” text received at 10:17pm on a Thursday night, coming from the bedroom while you’re asleep on the couch
It’s over.
Wrap it up. Start looking for lawyers. We’re heading for a divorce.
Collingwood isn’t in a rut, they’re at the bottom of a river.
Collingwood couldn’t score before Jamie Elliott got injured, but without him it feels like it’s going to get worse. While the Bulldogs game was a Jordan Belfort and Naomi style one last time before a divorce, the way the Pies played against Melbourne feels much more like the reality. They scored just 35% of the time they went inside 50 on their way to a meagre 75 points.
It’s time for a new era in black and white.