2026 AFL Round 14 Tips & Predictions

Another pivotal early round encounter between two sides familiar with the Thursday night stage. A spirited second half saw the Dogs roar back against the Hawks last week, led by some heroics from Tim English and Marcus Bontempelli. The Crows pulled off their own Thursday night heist with a controversial one-point win over Geelong, but find themselves as outsiders with only two wins away from Adelaide all season. Suddenly, both of these sides are playing lockdown defence – the Crows holding their last five opponents to under 80 points, and holding Hawthorn to only one second half goal last week. With the Total set at 181 points, the Under looks a good play. 

Safe to assume the Cats have had this game circled on the calendar after they lost by nine goals to the Suns in Opening Round. Fast forward to Round 14 and both side are coming off back to back losses, placing each side in the potential ‘pretender’ pile when it comes to genuine Finals threats. Gold Coast have never won at The Cattery and it’s hard to entertain their chances on Friday with the likes of Lachie Weller and Bailey Humphrey under injury clouds. The Cats have been their own worst enemy in front of the sticks in recent weeks, but back on their home deck with a relatively fit squad, this should be theirs to lose.  

A quick turnaround for the Dees following a narrow eight-point win over the Pies on Monday. Brody Mihocek will be out indefinitely after fracturing his neck, but the Dees won’t be too concerned against a Bombers outfit averaging the third-fewest goals in the league. That said, the Dons surprised Melbourne at Gather Round earlier in the year, running out seven goals winners thanks to a masterclass from Nate Caddy and Archie Roberts. Essendon dominated the clearances and played with an aggressive attacking edge, lapping up the wet conditions to show some signs of life. Things have gone south since then, but the Dees could be just as vulnerable coming off an emotionally charged King’s Birthday win.  

Will we see a response from North following a disastrous 124 point hiding at the hands of Fremantle? This is technically a home game for the Roos, but the Eagles will be up for it after erasing a 30-point margin to knock off North Melbourne way back in Round 2. Harley Reid versus North’s midfield is a key area to watch, but given the turnover problems these two sides have had all year, this shapes as a back and forth battle with plenty of momentum swings. To their credit, North have played to a steady 9-6 record off a loss dating back to last season, and if this does turn into a high energy tilt, I think the Roos might have an edge if their young guns shine.  

Port continue to throw a spanner in the works when you least expect it. Last week’s dramatic win over West Coast has kept their very faint finals hope alive, but they might be in for a serious reality check on Saturday night against the benchmark team in the competition. The Swans survived a scare against a steely Saints team, and the Power will likely be looking to replicate that blueprint by forcing Sydney into some messy, turnover-prone footy. The Swans are at their best when they control the flow and find uncontested targets, but Port has enough firepower through the middle to really make this a contest on their home deck. The battle between Aliir Aliir and the Swans forwards will decide this one, but I think it might be closer than the bookies expect. 

We’re off to Hobart on Sunday as the Tigers return fresh from the bye to host the reigning premiers. Brisbane steadied the ship last week to put the Suns away in blowout fashion, led by a stunning seven-goal game from young forward, Logan Morris. Lachie Neale had 37 touches and is a very real threat to jag his third Brownlow, setting up a tough matchup for a Tigers team that ranks bottom three in kicks, marks, points and tackles on the year. On what shapes to be a balmy 13 degree day, the Lions should put Richmond away comfortably. 

Tough one to get a feel for with almost even money on offer. The Saints locked in defensively last week and took a high-scoring Swans team right down to the wire – an encouraging performance with growing pressure on Ross Lyon to succeed. The Giants, meanwhile, had a week off after putting away Brisbane and Melbourne successively before the bye. On paper, we’ve got two contrasting styles of play. The Saints like to shut down and get behind the ball, while the Giants have rediscovered their attacking flare with speed through the corridor and quick inside 50 entires. We’ve seen St Kilda hang around in games like this all season but fail at the final hurdle. With fresh legs and a chance to really cement their spot in the Wild Card picture, the Giants get the nod in what should be a tight one.