The King’s Birthday long weekend delivers a four-day footy feast, kicking off with a pair of must-see Top 8 clashes between the Crows and Cats on Thursday night, followed by the Hawks and Dogs on Friday.
Saturday is headlined by a finals rematch and the first Q-Clash of the year between the Suns and the Lions, while the Pies and Dees have the MCG stage all to themselves on Monday with close to even money on offer.
Could be a good one to sit on the fence and play the Over. Taylor Walker looks a good chance at returning after snagging five goals down at the SANFL, although Izak Rankine is under a bit of an injury cloud with a calf complaint. I’m of the opinion Adelaide is an entirely different outfit without him in the side, and not for the better, of course. The Cats, meanwhile, have been one of the top scoring sides in the competition all year and will no doubt be hungry to bounce back from a head scratching loss to the Blues last week. Ten of the last 18 games played between these two have gone Over the Total, so that’s how I’m playing this Top 8 belter.
Another Top 8 battle that sees the Hawks and Dogs meet for the second time this year. The Hawks did a number on Luke Beveridge’s side at Gather Round, and they will face an even stronger outfit this time around with Mabior Chol fit and Will Day returning to the side last week with 18 touches in the big win over St Kilda. The Jack Gunston show continues to impress, although there is something to be said for this gritty, never-say-die Bulldogs squad. The likes of Tom Barass and Cody Weightman are names to watch on the injury front for both sides, and their inclusion could really help turn this into a much closer game than the one we were promised in Adelaide. The Dogs were smashed around the ruck in their previous meeting in a game that really got away from them early. The Hawks replicated that performance against the Saints last week, and they’ll likely win this win by at least a few goals, like the line suggests.
The Dockers passed the litmus test with flying colours last week, running out 25 points winners against the reigning premiers. Limiting a near full strength Lions squad to 78 points was impressive and yet another example of how well Alex Pearce and the rest of Freo’s defenders set up behind the ball. North has stood strong against Top 8 opponents this year, playign the Lions and Cats close earlier in the year before the fourth quarter got away from them. They were rewarded with a confidence-boosting win over the Suns before the bye, but whether fresh legs is enough to offset a potent Freo attack that could receive a big boost in the form of star midfielder Caleb Serong remains to be seen.
Another highly anticipated Q-Clash with both the Suns and Lions sliding down the ladder at warp speed. The Suns have had an extra week to get their heads right after suffering one of the upsets of the season two weeks ago against North, while the Lions have dropped three in a row after failing to turn up for a big tilt last week against the Dockers. Whether Chris Fagan finally swings the axe on team list Thursday remains to be seen, but there are big question marks around players like Cam Rayner and Josh Dunkley after what has largely been a disappointing season. Surprisingly, the Lions are also leaking goals at an alarming rate, compounded even further by some of their scoring woes of late. Fagan is out of answers, and against a Suns team that has held opponents to the second-fewest inside 50 entries all year, this looks like a good spot for them to enact a bit of revenge for last year’s finals embarrassment.
Certainly not a game that holds any finals implications, but it could go a long way to determining the bottom of the ladder when it’s all said and done. West Coast has improved considerably in comparison to the wooden spoon outfit we saw 12 months ago, putting away a hopeless Bombers outfit by 30 points last week in blustery conditions. Harley Reid remains a one-man show at times, while a win three weeks ago against a red-hot GWS side reads quite well in terms of form. Bizarrely, Port has opened favourites away from home, which comes as a surprise given, they’ve struggled to move the ball through the middle over the last fortnight, not to mention ranking 14th in points across the year.
It’s not quite hot seat time, but the pitchforks are starting to emerge around Saints coach Ross Lyon. A goalless first half last week in a blowout loss to the Hawks has left 12th placed St Kilda searching for answers, a far cry from the position many envisioned after they signed Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to big money this time last year before a lavish offseason of signings. A game against Sydney couldn’t have come at a worse time, especially after Hawthorn had their way moving the ball forward last week to find wide open targets. Sloppy turnovers and injuries to key players like Jack Higgins make this a grim time to be a Saints fan, and it might be about to get worse before it gets better.
So fitting that these two sides should meet after what has transpired off the field over the last few weeks. After sacking Michael Voss, suddenly, the Blues are back in the Wild Card conversation after rattling off a stunning third straight win last week against Geelong, while Bombers fans failed to receive the same shot in the arm with their side going down by a big margin to West Coast following the midweek firing of Brad Scott. Essendon’s injury list remains a mile long, and with plenty of distractions around James Hird happening on the sideline, the Blues should be stretching their winning streak to four on the trot so long as they take the Bombers seriously.
The traditional King’s Birthday game should be a doozy with Collingwood back outside the finals picture and the Dees looking to snap a two-game skid. Wayward kicking has been front and centre of Melbourne’s recent struggles, which ironically has been the case when these two sides have last met. Collingwood has won five in a row over the Dees dating right back to 2023, their last two battles being tight, hard-fought classics. Collingwood has a knack of bringing its opponents down to their level by playing a slow, methodical brand of footy, but with the bookies struggling to separate the two, a Tribet might be the easiest way to go.