The bye is back as Adelaide, Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide all take a seat, leaving us with seven games spread out across Round 12.
First plays eighth on Friday night in a must-see clash between the Lions and the new ladder-leading Dockers, before all eyes shift to the Bombers on Sunday in their first game since the midweek dismissal of coach Brad Scott.
Another important Thursday clash with the Hawks looking to cement a Top 4 spot and the Saints on the fringe of the Wild Card. Will Day looks at least another week away from returning for Hawthorn with Jack Gunston still under an injury cloud, while the Saints will likely welcome back Rowan Marshall from a leg injury. No Jack Higgins is still hurting St Kilda’s already lackluster attack however, which doesn’t bode well against a Hawks side that has been one of the better teams at taking marks inside 50 all year. The Saints have gone 8-5 at the line on the back of a loss dating back to last season, but with the Hawks sporting a small two goal head start, the margin is probably the safer bet in what figures to be a slow, grind-it-out type stalemate.
The Blues couldn’t make a late Wild Card run… could they? Two on the trot has given Blues fans something to cheer about, but this week’s opponent is a serious step up in class compared to the Dogs and Port Adelaide. The Cats are humming off two easy wins against genuine heavyweight opposition over the last fortnight, and it’s very hard to see Carlton’s sub-par midfield matching the red-hot form of Bailey Smith and Max Holmes for four quarters. Geelong is top five in scoring, tackle pressure and disposal efficiency, making this a tall order for a Blues team that is still struggling with accuracy in front of the sticks.
Tigers fans have every right to feel afraid. The Swans will be out for blood after falling 27 points short of Geelong last week, although Richmond coach Adam Yze has one less headache to worry about with Tom Papley and Malcolm Rosas potentially out injured. Regardless, the Swans ran out 44 point winners when these two met last year, and given their inability to sustain pressure and lay tackles, it’s difficult to imagine Richmond keeping this close.
One look at the ladder tells you all you need to know about the magnitude of this game. The reigning premiers are suddenly in a fight for a Wild Card spot after a record-setting third quarter last week in the blowout loss to GWS, while the Dockers will treat this game as a chance to prove once and for all that they are indeed the real deal. Whether Chris Fagan makes a big selection call remains to be seen, but there should be at least one big inclusion with Dayne Zorko fit to play. The Dockers haven’t won at the Gabba since 2016, and they also haven’t played in Brisbane in just over two years. Given neither side is really setting the scoreboard alight, plus the fact their last three clashes have fallen Under the Total, a low-scoring battle is the way to attack this one.
Injuries have really turned this game on its head with the Pies suffering some serious blows last week in the win over West Coast. Jamie Elliott is done for the year with a torn ACL, while Darcy Moore is back on the shelf with a hamstring complaint. The black and blue Dogs know just how it feels, and we’re still no closer to learning of Tim English’s return. The Bont and Ed Richards were instrumental in a stirring win against Melbourne last week, and based on what we’ve seen from the Pies all year, Collingwood should look to turn this into another ugly, low-scoring scrap.
Are the Giants back? Or did last week’s dominant 78-point win say more about Brisbane? Either way, this is a tough game to get a feel for up in Darwin with the Dees left wondering what could have been last week against the Dogs. Melbourne struggled to get the ball into the forward half of the ground when it mattered most, and as far as this game goes, a 4-7 record at Traeger Park inspires little confidence. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, it’s all about how each side adjusts to the heat, but on the plus side for Melbourne, they have gone 9-4 at the line after a loss. The Giants have some question marks down back with Jack Buckley on the injury report with a hamstring, so all up, the current price for the Dees is probably worth taking.
Unlikely to be the best game of the weekend, but it could be the most interesting as far as narratives go. No one can say the sacking of Brad Scott on Tuesday came as a surprise, but it will be fascinating to see if the Bombers play with a renewed sense of vigor like Carlton has since Vossy bit the bullet. West Coast, meanwhile, should sense the importance of the moment after putting up a spirited fight against the Pies last week in front of a packed house. The Eagles are far from the team they were 12 months ago, and they certainly have the pieces to pick up a win on Sunday if they start out strongly. With key pieces like Andrew McGrath and Jye Caldwell all out injured for the Dons, West Coast should go in for the kill and look to make a statement.