2026 AFL Round 11 Tips & Preview

2026 AFL Round 11 Tips & Preview

Another monster weekend of finals-like footy awaits with Tassie firmly in the spotlight in more ways than one. 

UTAS Stadium in Launceston plays host to Thursday Night Footy between the Hawks and the Crows, before the annual Dreamtime at the ‘G clash follows on Friday between cellar-dwellers Richmond and Essendon. 

Heavyweights Geelong and Sydney meet on Saturday in a serious Top 4 battle, while footy fans everywhere prepare to celebrate Scott Pendlebury when he steps out to set the new all-time games record against West Coast. 

Finally, it could be lights out for Bevo and the Bulldogs on Sunday against the red-hot Dees, and as always, you can find our complete list of AFL Round 11 tips in our preview! 

Hawthorn
vs
Adelaide Crows
Thursday 21st May 7:30 PM (UTAS Stadium)
Tip: Hawks 1-39 @ $2.10

We’re almost at the halfway point of the season, and this sure feels like an important game for both sides as far as finals are concerned. The Hawks have made Tassie their fortress, but their lack of forward half targets in recent weeks and depth through the midfield makes this a tough matchup. In positive news, Mabior Chol and Jack Gunston are set to play, while Will Day is due for his first hit-out in the VFL this weekend. There’s no timetable on Riley Thilthorpe’s return for the Crows, and they sure could use another big body up front given their road woes in recent times. The Hawks need to clean up their turnovers and start winning some centre clearances, but with some big names back in the side, they look a good bet to end their slump. 

Richmond
vs
Essendon
Friday 22nd May 7:45 PM (MCG)
Tip: Under 175.5 Total Points

Dreamtime at the ‘G looms large for two coaches planted firmly on the hot seat. The Bombers were atrocious for three quarters against the Dockers last week, while the Tigers fell behind by three goals early in another low-scoring display against St Kilda. It will be fascinating to see if Brad Scott makes a cut throat decisions ahead of Thursday’s selections, while Adam Yze will be leaning on the available talent he has with Campbell Gray and Sam Cumming both copping injuries last week. The last four meetings between this pair have all gone Under the Total, and given recent form, it feels like that’s exactly the way this one is heading. 

Fremantle
vs
St Kilda
Friday 22nd May 8:30 PM (Optus Stadium)
Tip: Fremantle to Win & Under 176.5 Total Points @ $2.35

The Dockers can momentarily find themselves on top of the ladder on Friday night if they take care of business against the Saints. Patrick Voss and Josh Treacy led the way in last week’s mauling over the Bombers, which started with some brilliant tackling pressure through the middle of the ground. The Saints are yet to fully prove themselves as a genuine contender and had big issues stopping the likes of Luke Jackson and Caleb Serong when they last met. The Under is tempting given the way these two sides play, but with the Dockers red hot and back on their home deck, the double is definitely in play. 

North Melbourne
vs
Gold Coast Suns
Saturday 23rd May 1:15 PM (Marvel Stadium)
Tip: Suns to Win & Under the Total @ $2.90

The Roos are another big watch at the selection table this week following last Saturday’s humiliating 11 goal loss to the Crows. The Suns could receive a boost with Ned Long and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan likely to play, but how they handle heading straight to Melbourne following a couple of comfortable weeks up north in the Darwin heat is a fair question. Gold Coast thumped North by eight goals in their lone meeting last year and are averaging nearly 11 intercept marks more than the Roos at this point. After holding their last three opponents to under 80 points each, the Suns back line might be the difference in this one. 

Geelong Cats
vs
Sydney Swans
Saturday 23rd May 4:15 PM (GMHBA Stadium)
Tip: Geelong 1-39 @ $2.30

It’s been a minute since the Swans last visited the Cattery, a venue they won’t hold particularly fond memories of after being pumped 93 points in 2023. This current Sydney squad is much different, but their last meeting wasn’t much better, going down by 63 points at the SCG last August. The Cats have seemingly turned a corner with three blowout wins in a row, the latest coming against the Lions last week at the Gabba – which is more than we can say for a Swans side that has cut it close against North and Collingwood in recent weeks. This is the first of a long stretch of games in Melbourne for Geelong, and for a team that is currently allowing opponents the second-fewest marks in the competition, home field advantage should be the difference in this top four clash. 

Collingwood
vs
West Coast Eagles
Saturday 23rd May 2026 4:35 PM (MCG)
Tip: Collingwood to Cover (-44.5 Points) @ $1.90

Should be close to a full house as the legendary Scott Pendlebury steps out to break the all-time games record on Saturday. Elsewhere, the Pies are set to welcome Darcy Moore and Darcy Cameron back from injury, a huge boost against a plucky Eagles side that kicked four goals in the final term to knock off GWS last week. As the odds suggest, a West Coast win would be a monumental upset given the circumstances, and given how well Craig McRae coaches his side through these types of moments, it’s hard to see it happening. 

Port Adelaide
vs
Carlton
Saturday 23rd May 7:35 PM (Adelaide Oval)
Tip: Port Adelaide to Cover (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90

They were far from great, but former head coach Michael Voss had to be a little sick watching his old side give some serious effort in last week’s win over the Bulldogs. Looking ahead, the Blues are a tough team to get a read on after playing competitive footy in patches for most of the year, while the same can be said of Port Adelaide, who fought back to trim the margin late against the Suns last week. The Power were huge around the clearances in the final term, also winning the inside 50 count 17-10. They say you’re only as good as last your game, but if the Power can pick up where they left off back on their home deck, they are one of the better bets of the weekend – and the bookies seem to agree. 

GWS Giants
vs
Brisbane Lions
Sunday 24th May 12:30 PM (ENGIE Stadium)
Tip: Lions to Cover (-14.5 Points) @ $1.90

Lions coach Chris Fagan isn’t known for making rash decisions, but a big selection change before this trip to Western Sydney wouldn’t shock. Brisbane were slow out of the gates in last week’s Grand Final rematch against the Cats, and as Alastair Lynch and Tom Rockliff said on this week’s neds AFL Unpopular Opinions podcast, question marks are starting to be asked of Cam Rayner and a few others. A couple of down games from Harris Andrews hasn’t helped, but there is hope on the horizon with veteran Dayne Zorko set to return on Sunday. Against a wounded GWS effort missing some serious fire power through the middle, not even Jesse Hogan’s return is enough to move the needle here against the reigning champs. 

Western Bulldogs
vs
Melbourne
Sunday 24th May 3:15 PM (Marvel Stadium)
Tip: Melbourne to Win @ $1.83

Hands down one of the tougher markets to work out with the Dogs going close to even in the betting. There’s hope Tim English can return to the ruck, and he’s sorely needed with Marcus Bontempelli operating as a one man band in recent weeks. The Dees were clinical at times in last week’s win over the Hawks and will look to showcase their pristine ball use to take full advantage of a Bulldogs back line that is looking everything but sound. English’s return will level things up around the ruck, but the price on offer here for Melbourne feels too good to ignore.