Four of the five biggest traditional Melbourne clubs are either in, or appear to be careening towards, significant rebuilds.
All appear certain to miss the top six and only Collingwood is likely to make the wildcard, particularly given that Carlton has been seriously incentivised to lose so they can get access to Cody Walker at pre inflation prices.
Clearly the AFL’s chicanery could lead to Carlton getting a better outcome than they would have got because they could get Walker and a pick at the end of the first round, though they’ll probably confect a way to get out of that as well. This AFL is addicted to releasing rabbits into the wild to hunt a bug that they can’t eradicate, then sending foxes to hunt the rabbits and on and on.
For a great game, the sport appears to be administered largely by morons who are driven by being able to go on junkets.
It all means that we’re about to have a season where Spielberg didn’t make a movie and The Artist is going to win the Oscar (unless of course the unthinkable happens and Hawthorn wins).
But what about over the next five years. Whose position would you rather be in over the next five years?
Let’s have a look at each club.
Carlton
Based on that, there’s not much point digging into Michael Voss’ game style.
However, given that pursuit and Carlton’s deep messiah complex and the pursuit of McRae, I wouldn’t be surprised if they chased a big fish. Maybe someone like Adam Simpson who, if they hired, I would instantly downgrade their outlook.
The question at Carlton is solely about list talent. Over the next five years, they probably won’t have Cripps, Weitering, or McKay any longer but they will have brought in Cody Walker. Alongside him, they’ll have Jagga Smith and Sam Walsh though by that point his back could be worse than Julius Caesar’s just after he got stabbed in it.
The Blues next five years figures to be a rebuild with those four players at the heart of it. It’s not a bad start, particularly if footy continues to preference run and carry over grunt in midfield.
Carlton’s rebuild could be off to a worse start.
Collingwood
I’m not breaking news here: Collingwood has no young talent.
In terms of building blocks under 25, it’s basically Nick Daicos, Oscar Steene (who has played five career games so describing him as a building block is probably generous), and maybe Angus Anderson (who has played even less than Steene).
Even Anderson looks like a Ned Long clone to me, and I don’t mean it in a good way.
So the questions for Collingwood’s five-year outlook are twofold:
- What’s happening with Daicos?
- What’s happening with McRae?
For the first question, I’d be surprised if Daicos left for Tasmania.
Daicos was built to be an AFL star. He’s erudite, talented, and always says the right thing. He’s kind of like Victor Wembanyama, where you can see that he’s been building toward being a super-duper star for his whole life.
This is not Joe Daniher, where the limelight of Melbourne was too much. Daicos clearly loves it. He even gets other people to crack the shits for him so he gets what he wants, like what happened with last year’s best and fairest.
Clearly, he’s familiar with Cris Carter’s fall guy speech.
There’s nowhere better to be a super-duperstar than Collingwood. Even if the money Tasmania offers is ludicrous, the commercial opportunities at Collingwood will be far bigger.
The question about McRae is an important one as well. He has the best defensive system in footy that would probably preclude them from ever truly bottoming out, but that might hurt them in the long run because they need access to elite young players.
The final factor with Collingwood is that they’re Collingwood. People want to play for the biggest club in footy, so they can do Laker rebuilds where they fall ass backwards into stars.
Essendon
Gee whiz.
Essendon’s lack of truly elite top end youngsters is kind of unbelievable given how bad they have been for as long as they’ve been bad.
It’s a bit like the Gen Zers in Beef having a golden opportunity to blackmail Oscar Isaac and Carey Mulligan and coming away with pretty average American health insurance and their shitty overleveraged life. Like what are you doing? These people love debt! Force them into more of it!
In terms of coaching, the club seems to be backing Brad Scott to the hilt. As a recovering Brad Scott truther myself, I understand this.
Whether the hilt has a five-year time horizon, I do not know.
However, if it is Scott long term, he needs to learn some lessons from what his retread mates Ross and Clarko and understand the value of kicking forward not just sideways.
Richmond
In terms of high picks that are young on the list, Richmond is in an unenviable spot.
As we all know, they bottomed out in 2024 and got a million picks and are now on the rocket ship up!
Richmond was praised by the footy commentariat for the same reason that the Sam Hinkie Sixers were praised. Everyone understands the concept of losing and getting a tonne of picks. It’s not complicated.
But for it to work, the kids need to play and they especially need to play while the mature players on the list are still playing. That means Smilie, Hotton, Armstrong, Faull, Cumming, Fawcett, and Gibcus all need to be playing regularly while Vlastuin, Broad, Lynch, Nankervis and Taranto are still around to protect them.
The worry is that all of the young players that I just listed have missed either all or a chunk of the season already for form or physical reasons. Otherwise, the risk is that the Tigers turn into the Hinkie Sixers, who never quite figured out the point at which you’re supposed to start trying to win.
In terms of coaching, I’ve made my feelings on Adem Yze clear from the time of his appointment and nothing has changed. If he’s the coach for the next five years, as a Tiger fan I might have a nervous breakdown.
But I’d be surprised if he is, so there’s not much point thinking about how he wants to play. Outside of unicorns like Sam Mitchell, it’s rare that the coach who does the rebuild is the coach who drives the ultimate success.
The fact is that Richmond’s outlook is bright, despite how pessimistic this segment has been. There are too many young players and high picks for it not to be, but there is a downside risk in all rebuilds and Richmond’s has started showing cracks.
Ask Essendon about their last three or four.
Ranking the next five-year outlooks
- Richmond
- Collingwood
- Essendon
- Carlton