Tactically, Michael Voss is not a brilliant coach. He might not even be a good one. He’s stuck in an era of footy that doesn’t exist anymore.
He has pure ruckmen, pure key defenders, pure key forwards. He likes round pegs to fit into round holes and he’s not interested in fashioning different shaped holes for different kinds of players to fit into.
I assume that his whiteboard looks exactly like your school footy coach’s whiteboard and there is no acknowledgement of the new roles that have come to define the game.
Role flexibility is like BDSM to him. It’s just something people on the internet do.
His success as a coach to this point, however modest, has therefore relied almost exclusively on two things:
- A real ability to coach effort, and
- Having superstars across every line.
This year, Voss lost a superstar when Charlie Curnow forced his way to Sydney.
Another of his superstars, Patrick Cripps, is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career and is heading into his age 31 season after a career of carrying a gigantic physical toll.
A third of his “superstars”, Tom De Koning, is barely a star but is off to St Kilda for an exorbitant cost.
So, why am I optimistic?
Refer to point 1.
The Blues had a pretty clear way to play and it relied on a heavily contested midfield and having enough triers in the front half of the ground to consistently win the field position battle. They were a bit like Imagine Dragons. They only do one thing, and the returns are diminishing, but effort was never the issue.
Their problems last year were threefold, and were both structure and personnel based:
- Curnow and McKay, in their eighth year together, doing a Simmons and Embiid impression and giving each other no space,
- Small forwards who, while they tried hard, are C+ at best players with ball in hand, and
- A real lack of leg-speed and ball use from the back half which demolished their transition game.
As long as Voss retains the level of buy-in that he’s had through his coaching career thus far, those problems could potentially be solved this year.
First of all, Curnow is now a Sydney player. That could make Carlton better, at least partly by freeing up Harry McKay. Whilst McKay hasn’t always been brilliant with Curnow not in the lineup, the best year of his career was 2021 when Curnow played in just four games.
Carlton also brought in modern, flexible players that should all help Harry McKay flourish as a first banana.
Firstly, a player acquired in the Curnow trade: Will Hayward. Hayward is a better player on the lead than McKay and a brilliant overhead mark for his size. He’s also a talented ground-level player inside 50, sitting fifth among general forwards for forward 50 ground ball gets. He brings a much-needed goal sense too, kicking at least 28 goals in each of the last five seasons, including 41 in 2024.
The next key addition was Ben Ainsworth. Ainsworth is not a star and never will be. However, he is the platonic ideal of the hard running, high half forward with good skills. Among general forwards last year, Ainsworth was fifth in kick inside 50 retention rate with 61%.
Last year, Carlton’s best inside 50 retention rate forward was Jesse Motlop at 43%, 35th among 45 qualifying general forwards.
Both Ainsworth and especially Hayward are also high effort players and should help with inside 50 pressure, which is something that Curnow never did especially when he wasn’t playing well. They also are both going to look like Bill and Ted going back to hang out with Napoleon as modern players in an otherwise fairly outdated team.
Problem 3 still threatens to be an issue for the Blues. This is still a slow team on paper whose fans will probably still be stuck borderline ironically “woofing” for Adam Saad kicks.
But, the problem can be helped slightly. Ainsworth will move up and down the ground and provide some general assistance with ball movement. Separate to him, Jagga Smith is coming off his ACL injury but, when he was drafted, was meant to be a freaky athlete with genuine running power, and Ollie Florent was also added from Sydney.
Like Ainsworth, Florent will never be a star but he is fast enough and a trier. He also got nine of his 15 possessions a game in either defensive 50 or defensive midfield last year even after moving more into the midfield. He also had had 3.8 rebound 50s in each of 2023 and 2024 for over 360 metres gained when he was more of a half back.
What does it all mean?
Carlton won’t be good this year and shouldn’t be talked about like a premiership contender, but they can be a pest for good teams.
They’ll still try hard and have added more modern players to an overly traditional team to try and fix some of the structural issues that have plagued the Voss years separate to just trying hard.
It also means that the Ewing Theory committee is evaluating the situation at Ikon Park vis-à-vis Charles Curnow.