We have a Super Bowl set in name. It’s a rematch of one of the greatest games of all time: Patriots v Seahawks.
However, in substance, after having watched the two Championship Games, I feel like I saw the true Super Bowl being contested by the Rams and the Seahawks.
In that game, one team’s coach made the same mistake twice and his team lost.
Sean McVay is the best coach in the league, but his Achilles heel has historically been game management. It reared its head again against the Seahawks.
In the third quarter, the Rams were down to Seattle by 11 points on two separate occasions. In both situations, the Rams scored because their quarterback was throwing fucking darts all over the yard against the best defense in the league and they are one of the best low red zone passing games I’ve ever seen.
Instead of going for two either time, they kicked the extra point to go down by 4 which meant that they would need a touchdown to take the lead. Predictably, down 27-31 at the Seattle 6 on fourth down in the fourth quarter, the Rams had no choice but to go for it on fourth down and couldn’t get it. That was the final score.
Coaches in the NFL are like eating a spicy curry. They can give you so much, but they can just easily take it away.
That’s where we get to the point of this column.
Long-tenured coaches with great quarterbacks, coaches who dragged teams out of the doldrums and into relevancy, were let go because their problems were part of the reason that their teams couldn’t win at the highest level.
The change also breeds opportunity. For at least some of the teams in the market for a new head coach, like the Bucs with Jon Gruden in 2001 or even Mike Vrabel in New England this year, a new voice with different quirks could be what drives them over the top.
As we head toward the 2026 Super Bowl, which team who just fired their coach could be preparing for one more game this time next year?
Tier 1: Serious Super Bowl Threats
- Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens, after moving on from John Harbaugh, are the most likely team to make the Super Bowl next year.
Like the number two team, they have a superstar quarterback.
Unlike the number two team, they don’t have a moron owner who loves a bad GM.
Instead, Baltimore is a stable franchise with good talent across both offence and defense. After two decades of Harbaugh, they needed a fresh voice to get them over the top.
- Buffalo Bills
Bills owner Terry Pegula’s daughter Jessica is an elite tennis player who is still alive at the Australian Open.
In firing ex-coach Sean McDermott, who did plenty with a very average roster devoid of top end talent outside of Josh Allen over the last couple of years, Pegula promoted the GM, Brandon Beane who is responsible for stocking the team with average players but clearly has the owner’s ear.
Beane is better at cozying up to easily manipulated billionaires than Miranda Kerr.
This franchise is owned by an incompetent who mistakes friendliness with ability.
Now they’ve picked former offensive coordinator Joe Brady to be the head coach.
If Pegula and Beane wanted a new voice in the room, he failed to find one. If Beane wanted someone who definitively could not challenge his authority, this hire is a great success.
Beyond that, the fact that they ended up with a person who cannot have been their first choice while they have under 30 year old Josh Allen on the roster speaks to the decay that McDermott covered up over his tenure.
But they still have Josh Allen, and he alone makes them a contender even when Khalil Shakir is his best and often only option.
Tier 2: If They Got the Hires Right
- New York Giants
Harbaugh is a culture, and he has consistently shown the ability to hire elite coordinators, including Mike McDonald.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Harbaugh is the one to bring the pieces together and get the Giants to do a Patriots in 2027.
- Atlanta Falcons
Kevin Stefanski is a good playcalling head coach. Jeff Ulbrich, the holdover defensive coordinator from last year’s Falcons, is a good coordinator.
Terry Fontenot and the Falcons have drafted like a fantasy football team, which means they have good players at flashy positions like running back and wide receiver but have issues especially across the offensive line and with depth.
Tier 3: “WHY DID YOU DO THAT?” – Henry Hill – Me to the Rooney family
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Chuck Noll. Bill Cowher. Mike Tomlin.
What? Why?
Ending up with McCarthy after that run is like ending up with Aileen Wuornos after dating supermodels your whole life.
The Steelers have a proud tradition of outside the box hires that work, and they hired Mike McCarthy?
Did they hire him just because they are sick of hearing Aaron Rodgers wonder aloud about what happened with Larry Silverstein’s insurance policies?
Has the building grown sick of Rodgers’ musings about Allen Dulles’ role in the Warren Commission?
Or did Rodgers want McCarthy because he’s forgotten that he hated McCarthy in 2018?
The Steelers still have some players across the team, especially on defense. But this is an older team that was coached by a coach whose scheme had butted up against its own limitations, and they just hired another coach whose scheme has already shown itself to be deeply limited.
Tier 4: Haha
- Miami Dolphins
- Cleveland Browns
- Tennessee Titans
- Arizona Cardinals
- Las Vegas Raiders
We can dispense with these last five quickly. They could hire the child of Bill Walsh and Bill Belichick and none of these teams will make the Super Bowl next year.
Honourable Mention: Los Angeles Chargers
If I were doing coordinator changes, this would be an even longer column, so I am not. But this one is worth a mention.
Mike McDaniel has been hired to run the Chargers offence. Even with Jesse Minter going to Baltimore, and without knowing who Harbaugh will replace him with, that move alone puts the Chargers into Tier 1.
The marriage of Jim Harbaugh and McDaniel in LA is a Bond and Q in Skyfall level of odd couple that should go as well for opposing defenses as it went for Javier Bardem in that film.
It should be fireworks for the Chargers.