Penrith’s astonishing run of four straight premierships came to an end last Sunday, setting up a Grand Final between pre-season premiership favourites Melbourne and a Brisbane team that has continued to defy the odds.
There is no love lost between the teams with a rivalry that has been dominated by Melbourne ever since Brisbane’s famous upset victory in the 2006 decider.
The 2025 NRL Grand Final starts a new era with Penrith finally conquered and a new champion to be crowned.
It has been a stunning finals run for Brisbane, who dramatically beat Canberra in the 94th minute in a game that appeared to end in defeat twice before becoming the first team in 99 games and five years to overhaul a 12-point Penrith lead.
Melbourne’s finals run has been a little more predictable with comfortable enough wins over Canterbury and Cronulla.
The Storm will go in favoured with Craig Bellamy’s team opening 2.5-point favourites with the total set at 40.5, although there has been some early money for the Broncos.
After both teams suffered some injuries and suspensions throughout the season, both go in remarkably healthy.
Jahrome Hughes returned from a broken arm in the preliminary final so Melbourne have their big four intact.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona is the only real notable missing and there are 15 Storm players from last year’s Grand Final returning.
Brisbane have remarkably got Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds back with Patrick Carrigan returning from suspension.
Billy Walters is missing but aside the Broncos are close to full strength, and eight players returning from the losing 2023 decider.
Head to Head
While Brisbane probably enter with the fairytale mantle, this game is very much Melbourne’s to lose for two important reasons: head-to-head history and defence.
The Storm have completely dominated Brisbane for a long time.
They have won 17 of the last 19 clashes with 14 of those coming by double digits, as wel as covering 27 of 37 since 2008 including 14 of the last 18.
Defence also wins premierships and the best measure has been defensive ranking across the season, where the Storm ranked second.
The Broncos finished ranked seventh, nobody ranked that low has won the premiership in the last 20 years.
On top of that, no team ranked fourth or worse has won over that time when playing a top 2 defensive side.
In three of the four meetings since 2005 when there has been a rankings differential of three or more, the better defensive team has won by 16-plus in three of those.
Melbourne are the better team, they are better defensively, have more big-game experience, are better coached and have dominated this matchup.
Chips in Melbourne.
Tryscorers
Jahrome Hughes has an outstanding tryscoring record against Brisbane and running halves have an excellent tryscoring record in Grand Finals.
Hughes has 12 tries in 13 games against the Broncos, crossing in eight games as well as a good finals strike rate with five tries in 15 games including four in his last three.
Will Warbrick is an elite finisher with 36 tries in 55 games and has scored in both finals this year to extend his record to five tries in eight finals.
Jack Howarth gets a plus matchup and is a strong narrative play after his controversial disallowed try in last year’s decider.
Clive Churchill Medal
There is a very clear profile of the player that wins the Churchill Medal.
There have been 39 winners with 35 coming from the winning team and 36 playing Origin/Tier 1 Test football prior to the victory.
You can cross off a few players based on their position as no centre or winger has ever won the Churchill, no hooker has won since 2006 and no middle has won since 2014.
Halves and fullbacks have won seven of the last eight.
Finding Storm rep players who don’t play in the three quarters, the list of contenders is culled to five: Munster, Hughes, Grant, Katoa and Loiero.
Loiero is not good enough and no hooker has won in two decades so Grant is under the odds, while Munster’s form has been questionable.
That puts the focus clearly on Jahrome Hughes.
He has a Dally M Medal to his name, the best kicking game on the field, the ability to score tries and the narrative of returning quickly from a broken arm.
He is a huge price according to the profile.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Melbourne -2.5 ($1.96)
- Next: Melbourne 13+ ($3.60)
- Tryscorer: Jahrome Hughes ($23 First, $4.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Jahrome Hughes Try/Will Warbrick Try/Jack Howarth Try ($42.16)
- Clive Churchill: Jahrome Hughes ($8)