We are hitting the pointy end of the season with two compelling finals matches this weekend, with the Raiders hosting the Sharks as they seek redemption for their collapse last Sunday, while Canterbury goes in as huge home underdogs against Penrith as the Panthers seek to keep their dream of five straight titles alive.
Betting on losing Top 4 teams getting their second bite of the cherry in Week 2 of the finals has tended to be one of the better bets to make, with those teams 16-4 across the last decade and 11 of those 16 wins coming by more than seven points.
That puts the Raiders in the prime spot with Ricky Stuart’s team clearly undervalued based on last week’s loss. It was a devastating defeat with Canberra blowing a 16-point lead inside the final 25 minutes but Stuart is one of the better coaches at mentally preparing his team so Canberra should be ready for this.
The Raiders have a very good record against the Sharks with 10 wins in the last 13 with a 9-5 cover record in the last 14 clashes.
Not to mention going Canberra is 10-3 against the spread in their last 13 home games while they have covered nine of their last 13 when favoured by at least a try, having also gone 17-11 against the spread off scoring 28 or more.
Cronulla showed tremendous fight but they still have a poor recent finals record and they are 9-18 against the spread against Top 4 teams, the Raiders should win this and win by plenty.
Ethan Strange is having a sensational season with 14 tries in 24 games including six in the last four. Kaeo Weekes has had a very good year as well and he has scored eight tries in his last nine games including a double against the Broncos.
Hudson Young is an elite tryscoring edge with 44 tries in 91 games across the last four seasons.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canberra -5.5 ($1.90)
- Next: Canberra 13+ ($2.85)
- Tryscorer: Ethan Strange ($13 First, $2.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Ethan Strange Try/Kaeo Weekes Try/Hudson Young Try ($13.52)
As with the Raiders, the Bulldogs are the default position this week as the losing Top 4 team and confidence is boosted by them playing at home getting a start of double digits.
Penrith are unquestionably the class team and deserving of favouritism but they are being overvalued by the market due to their history of four straight titles and 13 straight finals matches but Canterbury did enjoy a stronger season.
The last time these two truly met – forget Round 26 when the Panthers played a reserve grade team – Penrith won 8-6 in a classic in Round 17.
Another defensive battle looks likely, making the big start even more appealin, the Bulldogs have covered 12 of 18 off a loss.
Matt Burton has been named at left centre this week and that is key to him scoring.
He won Dally M Centre of the Year in 2021 and he has 13 ties in 20 starts in the centres and Isaiah Papalii is absolutely airborne at present with tries in four of his last five games.
Recommended Bets
- Best: Canterbury +10.5 ($1.80)
- Next: Canterbury Win ($3.45)
- Tryscorer: Matt Burton ($21 First, $4.75 Anytime)
- SGM: Matt Burton Try/Isaiah Papalii Try ($20.66)