Nitpicking Collingwood

Nitpicking Collingwood

GuyWhoLikesSport GuyWhoLikesSport

I wrote this column about Sydney in Round 16 last year, when they were 13-2.

The fault I identified for Sydney was that, in both of their losses, their opponents took more than 100 marks.

That benchmark indicated that if it wasn’t a Swans game – chaotic and frenetic – then they’d lose.

They were 1-6 when a team took more than 100 marks and otherwise 19-1.

This year, to this point in the season, there’s another clear benchmark: Collingwood at 10-2.

They’re not the best at any one thing, but they’re elite at almost everything.

They have two key strengths that make them footy’s best team.

First, it’s their front half game.

They are second in time in forward half and give up the fewest scoring chains.

Watching teams trying to work their way through the Collingwood press is as painful as watching Ricky Gervais fumble through the prayer group in Extras.

By the fifth handball, we’re in “condoms…do we need them” territory.

Every decision digs the hole deeper.

And if a team just wants to hack the ball out like Hawthorn did, then Moore and Howe just pick it off and launch Daicos or Houston like they’re launching RPGs in Call of Duty.

Then, when they get the turnover, they make teams pay. Over the last five games, they lead footy in scores from turnover and are fourth in forward-half scores.

Off turnover, their service inside 50 is impeccable, raising the level of a forward line with brilliant small to mediums – Hill, Elliott, Schultz, Hoskin-Elliott, McCreery – but average key forwards.

Collingwood is first for scoring shots per inside 50 and second in marks inside 50.

Lipinski and Hill have been especially sharp.

They’re Collingwood’s two most threatening kicks and their top kick retention players, despite being outside their top-10 for expected retention.

They’re biting off a lot but chewing it easily.

Their other superpower, which I mentioned earlier, is structure more broadly.

Their structure is built on two things.

Firstly, it’s support in aerial contests and getting outnumbers in the back half.

Secondly, it’s about corridor denial.

The Pies clog the middle and force teams to go around, which partly explains why they rank 13th in stopping D50 to F50 transition.

Even if they don’t win the ball back, they still limit damage by funnelling opponents into hard shots.

Collingwood’s opponents have been the second most inaccurate in footy this season — and it’s no accident.

The Pies concede the second-lowest expected score per shot, and the lowest in general play.

When teams do manage to exit their defensive 50 cleanly, if they’re good, they can get the ball forward.

But even then, if they generate a shot, chances are it’ll be a poor one.

Collingwood is footy’s Sophie’s Choice team across the board, forcing opponents to make difficult decisions constantly and making them wrong every time.

Despite all that, they have lost twice.

First in Opening Round to GWS and secondly against Geelong in Round 8.

Unlike the Sydney losses last year, the two losses don’t have much in common at first glance.

GWS essentially outran Collingwood  and prompted now hilarious questions about whether Nick Daicos – whom I guarantee is on the Derek from Step Brothers diet – had put in the work over the offseason.

Geelong was a bit more surgical with their game, particularly in the first quarter when they tore Collingwood apart, but on balance the Pies comeback probably should have resulted in a win.

There is one link between the two games however.

In Opening Round, Finn Callaghan played what is probably still the best game of his career.

He’s a powerhouse, linking mid, who’s sheer running power helped GWS to fight fire with fire and burn their defensive press and corridor dominance because he’s a racehorse. Callaghan had 730 metres gained and 19 handball receives.

In Round 8, Bailey Smith, a similar level of power runner had a similar game, also helping Geelong to move between defence and attack through that Collingwood press because, again, he’s a freak athlete.

Smith had 715 metres gained and 17 handball receives.

What does it mean?

The Pies are an old team that is mostly excellent because of structure and smarts rather than athleticism.

You can’t beat them on that level, it’s a team with at least one footy PhD on every line.

Their two losses show that you can beat them with juice.

If Collingwood plays footy like the Hannibal Lecter cart – constraining teams with structure – these athletes are the Houdinis that can break free by being better movers

So, who has the necessary freak factor?

Obviously, Geelong and GWS.

Smith leads the league in metres gained.

Behind him are Dayne Zorko and Nas Wanganeen-Milera, who are different types of players.

Nobody is averaging 700 metres gained on the season.

Lowering the bar slightly, Ed Richards has five games over 600 metres gained this year — all with 10+ handball receives – including their close loss to Collingwood.

He’s the kind of explosive athlete that could give Collingwood problems.

Among finals contenders are guys like Noah Anderson and Jordan Dawson also fit the bill, but Richards is the one.

Barring injury, I’d pick Collingwood in any Grand Final blindly.

Except maybe the Dogs, who have the requisite freak factor to potentially pull one out.